National Vital Statistics Report

National Vital Statistics Reports

Volume 68, Number 7

June 24, 2019

United States Life Tables, 2017

by Elizabeth Arias, Ph.D., and Jiaquan Xu, M.D., Division of Vital Statistics

Abstract

Objectives--This report presents complete period life tables for the United States by race, Hispanic origin, and sex, based on age-specific death rates in 2017.

Methods--Data used to prepare the 2017 life tables are 2017 final mortality statistics; July 1, 2017 population estimates based on the 2010 decennial census; and 2017 Medicare data for persons aged 66?99. The methodology used to estimate the life tables for the Hispanic population remains unchanged from that developed for the publication of life tables by Hispanic origin for data year 2006. The methodology used to estimate the 2017 life tables for all other groups was first implemented with data year 2008.

Results--In 2017, the overall expectation of life at birth was 78.6 years, decreasing from 78.7 in 2016. Between 2016 and 2017, life expectancy at birth decreased by 0.1 year for males (76.2 to 76.1) and did not change for females (81.1). Life expectancy at birth decreased by 0.1 year for the white population (78.9 to 78.8) and the non-Hispanic white population (78.6 to 78.5) between 2016 and 2017. Life expectancy at birth did not change from 2016 for the black population (75.3), the non-Hispanic black population (74.9), and the Hispanic population (81.8).

Keywords: life expectancy ? survival ? death rates ? race ? Hispanic origin

Introduction

There are two types of life tables: the cohort (or generation) life table and the period (or current) life table. The cohort life table presents the mortality experience of a particular birth cohort--all persons born in the year 1900, for example--from the moment of birth through consecutive ages in successive calendar years. Based on age-specific death rates observed through consecutive calendar years, the cohort life table reflects the mortality experience of an actual cohort from birth until no lives remain in the group. To prepare just a single complete

cohort life table requires data over many years. It is usually not feasible to construct cohort life tables entirely on the basis of observed data for real cohorts due to data unavailability or incompleteness (1). For example, a life table representation of the mortality experience of a cohort of persons born in 1970 would require the use of data projection techniques to estimate deaths into the future (2,3).

Unlike the cohort life table, the period life table does not represent the mortality experience of an actual birth cohort. Rather, the period life table presents what would happen to a hypothetical cohort if it experienced throughout its entire life the mortality conditions of a particular period in time. For example, a period life table for 2017 assumes a hypothetical cohort that is subject throughout its lifetime to the age-specific death rates prevailing for the actual population in 2017. The period life table may thus be characterized as rendering a snapshot of current mortality experience and shows the long-range implications of a set of age-specific death rates that prevailed in a given year. In this report, the term life table refers only to the period life table and not to the cohort life table.

Life tables can be classified in two ways according to the length of the age interval in which data are presented. A complete life table contains data for every single year of age. An abridged life table typically contains data by 5- or 10-year age intervals. A complete life table can easily be aggregated into 5- or 10-year age groups (see Technical Notes for instructions). Other than the decennial life tables, U.S. life tables based on data before 1997 are abridged life tables constructed by reference to a standard table (4). This report presents complete period life tables by race, Hispanic origin, and sex.

Data and Methods

The data used to prepare the U.S. life tables for 2017 are final numbers of deaths for the year 2017; July 1, 2017 population estimates based on the 2010 decennial census; and age-specific death and population counts for Medicare beneficiaries aged 66?99 for the year 2017 from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Data from the Medicare program

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics National Vital Statistics System

NCHS reports can be downloaded from: .

2 National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 68, No. 7, June 24, 2019

are used to supplement vital statistics and census data for ages 66 and over. The U.S. life tables by Hispanic origin are based on death rates that have been adjusted for race and ethnicity misclassification on death certificates using classification ratios (or correction factors) generated from an updated evaluation of race and Hispanic-origin misclassification on death certificates in the United States (5). (See Technical Notes for a detailed description of the data sets and methodology used to estimate Hispanic-origin life tables.)

Expectation of life

The most frequently used life table statistic is life expectancy (ex ), which is the average number of years of life remaining for persons who have attained a given age (x ). Life expectancy and other life table values for each age in 2017 are shown for the total population by race, Hispanic origin, and sex in Tables 1?18. Life expectancy is summarized by age, race, Hispanic origin, and sex in Table A.

Life expectancy at birth (e0 ) for 2017 for the total population was 78.6 years. This represents the average number of years that the members of the hypothetical life table cohort can expect to live at the time of birth (Table A).

Survivors to specified ages

Another way of assessing the longevity of the period life table cohort is by determining the proportion that survives to specified ages. The lx column of the life table provides the data for computing this proportion. Table B summarizes the number of survivors by age, race, Hispanic origin, and sex. To illustrate, 57,839 persons out of the original 2017 hypothetical life table cohort of 100,000 (or 57.8%) were alive at exact age 80. In other words, the probability that a person will survive from birth to age 80, given 2017 age-specific mortality rates, is 57.8%. Probabilities of survival can be calculated at any age by simply dividing the number of survivors at the terminal age by the number at the beginning age. For example, to calculate the probability of surviving from age 20 to age 85, one would divide the number of survivors at age 85 (42,382) by the number of survivors at age 20 (98,937), which results in a 42.8% probability of survival.

Explanation of life table columns

Column 1. Age (between x and x + 1)--Shows the age interval between the two exact ages indicated. For instance, "20?21" means the 1-year interval between the 20th and 21st birthdays.

Column 2. Probability of dying (qx )-- Shows the probability of dying between ages x and x + 1. For example, for males in the age interval 20?21 years, the probability of dying is 0.001147 (Table 2). This column forms the basis of the life table; all subsequent columns are derived from it.

Column 3. Number surviving (lx )-- Shows the number of persons from the original hypothetical cohort of 100,000 live births who survive to the beginning of each age interval. The lx

values are computed from the qx values, which are successively applied to the remainder of the original 100,000 persons still alive at the beginning of each age interval. Thus, out of 100,000 female babies born alive, 99,477 will complete the first year of life and enter the second; 99,341 will reach age 10; 99,134 will reach age 20; and 49,264 will live to age 85 (Table 3).

Column 4. Number dying (dx )-- Shows the number dying in each successive age interval out of the original 100,000 live births. For example, out of 100,000 males born alive, 630 will die in the first year of life; 113 between ages 20 and 21; and 971 after reaching age 100 (Table 2). Each figure in column 4 is the difference between the two successive figures in column 3.

Column 5. Person-years lived (Lx )-- Shows the number of person-years lived by the hypothetical life table cohort within an age interval x to x + 1. Each figure in column 5 represents the total time (in years) lived between two indicated birthdays by all those reaching the earlier birthday. Thus, the figure 98,692 for males in the age interval 20?21 is the total number of years lived between the 20th and 21st birthdays by the 98,749 males (column 3) who reached their 20th birthday out of 100,000 males born alive (Table 2).

Column 6. Total number of person-years lived (Tx )-- Shows the total number of person-years that would be lived after the beginning of the age interval x to x + 1 by the hypothetical life table cohort. For example, 5,626,672 is the total number of years lived after reaching age 20 by the 98,749 males reaching that age (Table 2).

Column 7. Expectation of life (ex )--The expectation of life at any given age is the average number of years remaining to be lived by those surviving to that age, based on a given set of age-specific rates of dying. It is derived by dividing the total person-years that would be lived beyond age x by the number of persons who survived to that age interval (Tx / lx ). Thus, the average remaining lifetime for males who reach age 20 is 57.0 years (5,626,672 divided by 98,749) (Table 2).

Results

Life expectancy in the United States

Tables 1?18 show complete life tables for 2017 by race (white and black), Hispanic origin, and sex. Table A summarizes life expectancy by age, race, Hispanic origin, and sex. Life expectancy at birth for 2017 represents the average number of years that a group of infants would live if they were to experience throughout life the age-specific death rates prevailing in 2017. In 2017, life expectancy at birth was 78.6 years, decreasing by 0.1 year from 78.7 in 2016.

Changes in mortality by age and cause of death can have a major effect on life expectancy. Life expectancy between 2016 and 2017 decreased due to increases in mortality from unintentional injuries, suicide, diabetes, Alzheimer disease, Influenza and pneumonia, and decreases in mortality from cancer, heart disease, Viral hepatitis, HIV disease, and septicemia. For males, life expectancy decreased due to increases in mortality from unintentional injuries, suicide, diabetes, hypertension,

Table A. Expectation of life, by age, race, Hispanic origin, race for the non-Hispanic population, and sex: United States, 2017

All races and origins

White

Black

Hispanic1

Non-Hispanic white1

Age (years)

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

0. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78.6 76.1 81.1 78.8 76.4 81.2 75.3 71.9 78.5 81.8 79.1 84.3 78.5 76.1 81.0

1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78.1 75.6 80.5 78.2 75.8 80.6 75.1 71.8 78.2 81.2 78.5 83.7 77.9 75.5 80.3

5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74.1 71.7 76.6 74.2 71.8 76.7 71.2 67.9 74.3 77.3 74.6 79.8 74.0 71.6 76.4

10. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69.2 66.7 71.6 69.3 66.9 71.7 66.3 63.0 69.4 72.3 69.6 74.8 69.0 66.6 71.4

15. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64.2 61.8 66.7 64.3 61.9 66.7 61.4 58.1 64.4 67.4 64.7 69.8 64.0 61.7 66.4

20. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.4 57.0 61.8 59.5 57.1 61.8 56.6 53.4 59.5 62.5 59.9 64.9 59.2 56.9 61.5

25. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.7 52.4 56.9 54.7 52.5 57.0 51.9 48.9 54.7 57.7 55.2 60.1 54.5 52.2 56.7

30. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50.0 47.8 52.1 50.0 47.9 52.2 47.4 44.5 49.9 53.0 50.5 55.2 49.8 47.7 51.9

35. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45.3 43.2 47.3 45.4 43.4 47.4 42.8 40.0 45.2 48.2 45.8 50.3 45.2 43.2 47.2

40. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.7 38.7 42.6 40.8 38.8 42.7 38.3 35.7 40.6 43.5 41.2 45.5 40.6 38.6 42.5

45. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.1 34.2 37.9 36.2 34.3 38.0 33.8 31.3 36.0 38.8 36.6 40.7 36.0 34.2 37.8

50. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.6 29.8 33.4 31.7 29.9 33.4 29.5 27.1 31.6 34.2 32.1 36.0 31.6 29.8 33.3

55. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.4 25.6 28.9 27.4 25.7 29.0 25.5 23.2 27.4 29.8 27.7 31.4 27.3 25.6 28.8

60. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.3 21.7 24.7 23.3 21.8 24.7 21.7 19.6 23.4 25.5 23.6 27.0 23.2 21.7 24.6

65. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.4 18.0 20.6 19.4 18.1 20.6 18.2 16.4 19.7 21.4 19.7 22.7 19.3 18.0 20.5

70. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.7 14.5 16.7 15.6 14.5 16.6 15.0 13.4 16.1 17.5 16.0 18.6 15.6 14.5 16.6

75. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.3 11.3 13.0 12.2 11.2 13.0 11.9 10.7 12.8 13.8 12.6 14.7 12.2 11.2 12.9

80. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2

8.4

9.8

9.1

8.3

9.7

9.2

8.2

9.8 10.5

9.4 11.1

9.1

8.3

9.7

85. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6

5.9

7.0

6.5

5.9

6.9

6.9

6.1

7.3

7.6

6.7

8.0

6.5

5.9

6.9

90. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5

4.1

4.8

4.5

4.0

4.7

5.1

4.5

5.2

5.3

4.6

5.5

4.5

4.0

4.7

95. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1

2.8

3.2

3.0

2.7

3.2

3.7

3.3

3.7

3.6

3.2

3.7

3.0

2.7

3.2

100. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2

2.0

2.2

2.1

1.9

2.2

2.7

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.2

2.6

2.1

1.9

2.2

1Life tables by Hispanic origin are based on death rates that have been adjusted for race and ethnicity misclassification on death certificates. Updated classification ratios were applied; see Technical Notes. SOURCE: NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Mortality.

Non-Hispanic black1 Total Male Female

74.9 71.5 78.1

74.7 71.4 77.9

70.8 67.5 74.0

65.9 62.5 69.0

61.0 57.6 64.1

56.2 53.0 59.2

51.6 48.5 54.4

47.0 44.1 49.6

42.5 39.7 44.9

38.0 35.3 40.3

33.6 31.0 35.8

29.3 26.9 31.4

25.2 23.0 27.2

21.5 19.4 23.3

18.1 16.2 19.5

14.9 13.3 16.0

11.9 10.6 12.7

9.2

8.1

9.8

6.9

6.1

7.3

5.0

4.5

5.2

3.6

3.3

3.7

2.7

2.5

2.7

National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 68, No. 7, June 24, 2019 3

4 National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 68, No. 7, June 24, 2019

Table B. Number of survivors out of 100,000 born alive, by age, race, Hispanic origin, race for non-Hispanic population, and sex: United States, 2017

All races and origins

White

Black

Hispanic1

Non-Hispanic white1

Non-Hispanic black1

Age (years)

Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female

0. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100,000 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99,422 5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99,326 10. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99,268 15. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99,191 20. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98,937 25. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98,466 30. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97,872 35. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97,163 40. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96,321 45. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95,275 50. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93,797 55. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91,538 60. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88,226 65. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83,696 70. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77,697 75. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69,418 80. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57,839 85. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42,382 90. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24,560 95. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,361 100. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,894

100,000 99,370 99,261 99,199 99,107 98,749 98,071 97,235 96,284 95,196 93,903 92,105 89,365 85,344 79,838 72,785 63,524 51,095 35,439 18,687

6,070 971

100,000 99,477 99,393 99,341 99,280 99,134 98,883 98,543 98,083 97,493 96,697 95,543 93,768 91,162 87,596 82,637 75,344 64,591 49,264 30,222 12,383

2,697

100,000 99,516 99,429 99,377 99,304 99,066 98,613 98,025 97,312 96,477 95,447 93,997 91,783 88,554 84,141 78,242 69,933 58,237 42,559 24,480

9,125 1,761

100,000 99,473 99,373 99,316 99,230 98,906 98,262 97,439 96,493 95,422 94,151 92,391 89,701 85,778 80,425 73,517 64,248 51,682 35,762 18,708

5,903 886

100,000 99,562 99,489 99,440 99,382 99,235 98,987 98,646 98,180 97,593 96,814 95,687 93,962 91,438 87,973 83,087 75,748 64,899 49,376 30,103 12,097

2,524

100,000 98,920 98,771 98,686 98,578 98,208 97,555 96,763 95,837 94,682 93,210 91,184 88,154 83,613 77,385 69,560 60,137 48,332 34,458 20,106

8,620 2,390

100,000 98,812 98,653 98,560 98,425 97,853 96,871 95,718 94,433 92,897 91,066 88,591 84,962 79,494 71,895 62,551 51,909 39,528 26,042 13,662

5,016 1,128

100,000 99,033 98,894 98,815 98,736 98,576 98,267 97,843 97,263 96,464 95,322 93,711 91,241 87,562 82,583 76,127 67,819 56,516 42,199 26,129 11,754

3,289

100,000 99,491 99,415 99,366 99,305 99,091 98,727 98,284 97,799 97,221 96,506 95,438 93,759 91,332 87,731 82,920 76,164 66,348 52,244 34,151 15,837

4,304

100,000 99,461 99,379 99,328 99,256 98,970 98,447 97,800 97,133 96,341 95,387 94,048 91,914 88,832 84,329 78,413 70,358 59,261 44,188 26,219 10,234

2,127

100,000 99,523 99,454 99,408 99,359 99,221 99,032 98,814 98,532 98,184 97,717 96,936 95,738 93,974 91,241 87,438 81,818 73,047 59,497 40,715 19,864

5,582

100,000 99,533 99,444 99,392 99,318 99,080 98,613 97,983 97,204 96,298 95,181 93,649 91,353 88,032 83,559 77,632 69,308 57,607 42,000 24,097

8,964 1,730

100,000 99,483 99,371 99,310 99,216 98,892 98,234 97,360 96,327 95,173 93,808 91,968 89,207 85,203 79,807 72,896 63,649 51,115 35,287 18,400

5,791 869

100,000 99,585 99,520 99,478 99,425 99,278 99,013 98,639 98,122 97,473 96,614 95,402 93,581 90,956 87,420 82,492 75,113 64,231 48,761 29,665 11,901

2,483

100,000 98,911 98,748 98,654 98,536 98,134 97,430 96,610 95,641 94,407 92,840 90,725 87,588 82,936 76,584 68,613 59,109 47,325 33,600 19,644

8,353 2,255

100,000 98,812 98,653 98,560 98,423 97,803 96,746 95,560 94,229 92,586 90,636 88,051 84,296 78,732 71,027 61,536 50,854 38,543 25,258 13,175

4,820 1,086

100,000 99,013 98,866 98,783 98,700 98,525 98,189 97,742 97,125 96,271 95,055 93,374 90,812 87,013 81,897 75,293 66,870 55,541 41,324 25,499 11,445

3,205

1Life tables by Hispanic origin are based on death rates that have been adjusted for race and ethnicity misclassification on death certificates. Updated classification ratios were applied; see Technical Notes. SOURCE: NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Mortality.

and decreases in mortality from cancer, septicemia, Chronic lower respiratory diseases, Viral hepatitis, and HIV disease. Life expectancy did not change for females between 2016 and 2017 due to decreases in mortality from cancer, heart disease, perinatal conditions, congenital malformations, Viral hepatitis, and increases in mortality from unintentional injuries, Alzheimer disease, Influenza and pneumonia, Chronic lower respiratory diseases, and Nutritional deficiencies (6).

The difference in life expectancy between the sexes was 5.0 years in 2017, increasing by 0.1 year from the difference in 2016. From 1900 to 1975, the difference in life expectancy between the sexes increased from 2.0 years to 7.8 years (Table 19). The increasing gap during these years is attributed to increases in male mortality due to ischemic heart disease and lung cancer, both of which increased largely as the result of men's early and widespread adoption of cigarette smoking (7,8). Between 1979 and 2010, the difference in life expectancy between the sexes narrowed from 7.8 years to 4.8 years and remained at this level through 2015. It has increased every year since 2015 (Table 19).

The 2017 life table may be used to compare life expectancy at any age from birth onward. On the basis of mortality experienced in 2017, a person aged 65 could expect to live an average of 19.4 more years, for a total of 84.4 years; a person aged 85 could expect to live an additional 6.6 years, for a total of 91.6 years; and a person aged 100 could expect to live an additional 2.2 years, on average (Table A).

National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 68, No. 7, June 24, 2019 5

Life expectancy by race

Between 2016 and 2017, life expectancy decreased by 0.1 year for the white population (78.9 to 78.8) and did not change for the black population (75.3) (Table 19). The difference in life expectancy between the white and black populations was 3.5 years in 2017, 0.1 year above the historically record low level of 3.4 attained in 2015. The white?black difference in life expectancy narrowed from 14.6 years in 1900 to 5.7 years in 1982, but increased to 7.1 years in 1993 before beginning to decline again in 1994 (Table 19). The increase in the gap from 1983 to 1993 was largely the result of increases in mortality among the black male population due to HIV infection and homicide (8).

Among the four race?sex groups (Figure 1), white females continued to have the highest life expectancy at birth (81.2), followed by black females (78.5), white males (76.4), and black males (71.9). Between 2016 and 2017, life expectancy decreased by 0.1 year for black males (72.0 to 71.9) and increased by 0.2 year for black females (78.3 to 78.5). Black males experienced a decline in life expectancy every year for 1984?1989 (8), followed by annual increases in 1990?1992 and 1994?2012. Between 2016 and 2017, life expectancy declined by 0.1 year for white females (81.3 to 81.2). It remained unchanged for white males (76.4). Overall, gains in life expectancy between 1980 and 2017 were 8.1 years for black males, 6.0 years for black females, 5.7 years for white males, and 3.1 years for white females (Table 19).

85

80

White female

75

Black female

White male 70

Black male 65

Age (years)

60

0 1970

1974

1978

1982

SOURCE: NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Mortality.

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

Figure 1. Life expectancy at birth, by race and sex: United States, 1970?2017

2006

2010

2014 2017

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