Before U.S. Gets Vaccines Long, Dark Winter Looms

VOL. CLXX . . . . No. 58,894

? 2020 The New York Times Company

NEW YORK, TUESDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2020

Late Edition

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Long, Dark Winter Looms Before U.S. Gets Vaccines

A Critical Period Before Biden Takes Office -- Political Divisions Pose a Danger

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.

Each week, good news about traffic. And President Trump, the

vaccines or antibody treatments one person most capable of alter-

surfaces, offering hope that an ing the trajectory between now

end to the pandemic is at hand. and spring, seems unwilling to

And yet this holiday season help his successor do what must

presents a grim reckoning. The be done to save the lives of tens of

United States has reached an ap- thousands of Americans.

palling milestone: more than one President-elect Joseph R. Biden

million new coronavirus cases ev- Jr. has assembled excellent advis-

ery week. Hospitals in some ers and a sensible plan for tackling

states are full to bursting. The the pandemic, public health ex-

number of deaths is rising and perts said. But Mitchell Warren,

seems on track to easily surpass the founder of AVAC, an AIDS ad-

the 2,200-a-day average in the vocacy group that focuses on sev-

spring, when the pandemic was eral diseases, said Mr. Biden's

concentrated in the New York hands appeared tied until Inaugu-

metropolitan area.

ration Day on Jan. 20: "There's

Our failure to protect ourselves not a ton of power in being presi-

has caught up to us.

dent-elect."

The nation now must endure a By late December, the first

critical period of transition, one doses of vaccine may be available

that threatens to last far too long, to Americans, federal officials

as we set aside justifiable opti- have said. Priorities are still being

mism about next spring and con- set, but vaccinations are expected

front the dark winter ahead. Some to go first to health care workers,

TODD HEISLER/THE NEW YORK TIMES

Costumed characters in need of tourists. Pedestrian traffic in Times Square is roughly one-third of what it was before the pandemic.

epidemiologists predict that the death toll by March could be close

nursing home residents and others at highest risk. How long it will

to twice the 250,000 figure that the take to reach younger Americans

nation surpassed only last week. depends on many factors, includ-

Trump Attacks Unsettle G.O.P. Amid a Runoff

This article is by Lisa Lerer, Richard Fausset and Maggie Haberman.

President Trump's sustained assault on his own party in Georgia, and his repeated claims of election fraud in the state, have intensified worries among Republicans that he could be hurting their ability to win two crucial Senate runoff races next month.

The president has continued to claim without evidence that his loss in the new battleground state was fraudulent, directing his ire in particular at Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, both conservative Re-

If There Are No Crowds, Is It Still Times Square?

By COREY KILGANNON

A tour bus agent desperately tried to discern which passers-by were New Yorkers and which ones were out-of-towners. Newlyweds from Maryland, hoping to celebrate their nuptials with a special dinner, had to settle for McDonald's. Four homeless men sat on a sidewalk, sharing cigarettes and a pipe filled with marijuana.

This is Times Square, jarringly quiet beneath flashing billboards. Times Square needs a crowd, which is as much a part of its character as the incessant lights.

"Look around," said Ronnie Boyd, 54, from Brooklyn, who has been selling souvenir hats and Tshirts on the sidewalk in the area

Fears That the Theater

District Could Revert

to the '70s Version

since 2004. "Without the Broadway shows, the office workers, the tourists, the crowds, you got no Times Square."

The throngs of visitors -- the trademark of the famous neighborhood for more than a century -- are gone. The air is no longer thick with the aroma of hot dogs and roasting nuts. Broadway theaters are closed. Office buildings are nearly vacant. And there is an eeriness to the emptiness, helping to stir the faint fear that Times

Square could slip back to its 1970s self, a seamy neighborhood known for open crime, drugs and sex shows.

The neighborhood's transformation -- from gritty to "Disney" -- was a significant chapter in the city's revitalization, even as detractors criticized the new Times Square as losing its edge. Times Square has an outsize share of the city's economic activity, despite occupying only 0.1 percent of the city's land mass, said Tim Tompkins, president of the Times Square Alliance, the area's business improvement district.

Before the pandemic, the square, where Broadway meets Seventh Avenue from 42nd to 47th Streets, helped to draw a crush of tourists to the city. A record 66.6

Continued on Page A6

"The next three months are going to be just horrible," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University's School of Public Health and one of two dozen experts interviewed by The New York Times about the near future.

This juncture, perhaps more than any to date, exposes the deep political divisions that have allowed the pandemic to take root and bloom, and that will determine the depth of the winter ahead. Even as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention urged Americans to avoid holiday travel and many health officials asked families to cancel big gatherings, more than six million Americans took flights during Thanksgiving week, which is about 40 percent of last year's air

ing how many vaccines are approved and how fast they can be made.

In mid-October, I surprised some New York Times readers by shifting from pessimism to optimism, with the epidemic in the United States most likely ending sooner than I expected. Now that at least two vaccines with efficacy greater than 90 percent have emerged, I am even more hopeful about what 2021 holds.

But even as the medical response to the virus is improving, the politics of public health remain a deeply vexing challenge.

The regions of the country now among those hit hardest by the virus -- Midwestern and Mountain States and rural counties, includ-

Continued on Page A10

COVID FATIGUE Doctors and nurses on the front lines are running on empty as the pandemic surges and hospitals fill up. PAGE D1

publicans, whom he has accused

of not doing enough to help him

Asia Dissidents Economic Team overturn the result. Over the weekend, he escalated

Lament Demise Suggests Focus his attacks on Mr. Kemp, saying he

was "ashamed" to have endorsed

him in 2018, and on Monday he

Of Trump Way On Work Force called Mr. Kemp "hapless" as he

urged him to "overrule his obsti-

nate Republican Secretary of

state.''

Mr. Trump's broadsides have quietly rattled some Republicans in the state, who fear that con-

By HANNAH BEECH

BANGKOK -- A dissident once branded Enemy No. 1 by the Chi-

This article is by Jim Tankersley, Jeanna Smialek and Alan Rappeport.

cerns about the fairness of the nese Communist Party is spread- WASHINGTON -- President-

presidential election could de- ing conspiracy theories about elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. formally

vote-rigging in the American announced his top economic ad-

presidential election.

visers on Monday, choosing a

Pro-democracy campaigners team that is stocked with champi-

from Hong Kong are championing ons of organized labor and mar-

President Trump's claims of an ginalized workers, signaling an

electoral victory.

early focus on efforts to speed and

Human rights activists and reli- spread the gains of the recovery

gious leaders in Vietnam and from the pandemic recession.

Myanmar are expressing reserva- The selections build on a pledge

tions about President-elect Jo- Mr. Biden made to business

seph R. Biden Jr.'s ability to keep groups two weeks ago, when he

authoritarians in check.

said labor unions would have "in-

It might seem counterintuitive creased power" in his administra-

that Asian defenders of democra- tion. They suggest that Mr. Bi-

BRYNN ANDERSON/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Georgia's Republican secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger.

cy are among the most ardent supporters of Mr. Trump, who has declared his friendship with Xi Jinping of China and Kim Jong-un

den's team will be focused initially on increased federal spending to reduce unemployment and an expanded safety net to cushion

SCOTT McINTYRE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

Students in Miami Beach. Studies say children under 10 transmit the coronavirus less efficiently.

In Reopening of Schools, Youngest Lead the Way of North Korea. But it is precisely households that have continued to

press turnout for the Senate races, Mr. Trump's willingness to flout suffer as the coronavirus persists

which will determine whether diplomatic protocol, abandon in- and the recovery slows.

Democrats or Republicans control the chamber.

After resisting entreaties to appear in Georgia, the president plans to travel there this weekend, though even some of his own aides remain uncertain whether his anger toward state officials will overshadow any support he may lend the party's two candidates.

"You can't say the system is rigged but elect these two senators," said Eric Johnson, a campaign adviser to Kelly Loeffler,

ternational accords and keep his opponents off-balance that have earned him plaudits as a leader strong enough to stand up to dictators and defend democratic ideals overseas, even if he has been criticized as diminishing them at home.

As President-elect Biden assembles his foreign-policy team, prominent human rights activists across Asia are worried about his desire for the United States to hew again to international norms.

In a sign that Mr. Biden plans to focus on spreading economic wealth, his transition team put issues of equality and worker empowerment at the forefront of its news release announcing the nominees, saying they would help create "an economy that gives every single person across America a fair shot and an equal chance to get ahead."

Mr. Biden's picks include Janet L. Yellen, the former Federal Reserve chair, as Treasury secre-

By ELIZA SHAPIRO and KATE TAYLOR

After a summer of uncertainty and fear about how schools across the globe would operate in a pandemic, a consensus has emerged in more and more districts: Inperson teaching with young children is safer than with older ones and particularly crucial for their development.

On Sunday, New York City, home to the country's largest

New York City Follows

a Growing Consensus

high-profile example of that trend, when Mayor Bill de Blasio announced that only pre-Ks, elementary schools and some schools for children with complex disabilities would reopen next week after all city classrooms were briefly shut in November. There is currently

school students back into city school buildings.

It was an abrupt about-face for the mayor, who had for months promised to welcome all the city's 1.1 million children -- from 3-yearolds to high school seniors -- back into classrooms this fall.

But the decision put New York in line with other cities in America and across the world that have reopened classrooms first, and often exclusively, for young children, and in some cases kept them open

Continued on Page A20

Continued on Page A14

Continued on Page A19

school system, became the most no plan to bring middle and high

Continued on Page A8

INTERNATIONAL A11-16

Angry Farmers Protest in India

Tens of thousands of demonstrators,

upset about farm policies, are blocking

roads into New Delhi.

PAGE A16

Fueling Egypt's Resistance

Gasser Abdel-Razek, a leading human

rights advocate in Cairo, had avoided

arrest until last week.

PAGE A11

TRACKING AN OUTBREAK A4-10

Moderna Seeks Authorization

The first shots of the drugmaker's coronavirus vaccine could be given as early as Dec. 21, if emergency authorization is granted by the F.D.A. PAGE A4

NATIONAL A17-23

Body-Camera Report Released

New York City police officers who wore cameras received fewer civilian complaints than those who didn't. PAGE A23

Justices Hear Trump on Census

The administration aims to drop some

noncitizens from the tally, upsetting a

constitutional consensus.

PAGE A22

ARTS C1-6

A Theater Duo Presses On

Lois Weaver and Peggy Shaw haven't

let the pandemic, or some memory loss,

block their creativeness.

PAGE C1

What Lies Ahead for `Fargo'

Noah Hawley, creator of the offbeat FX drama, discusses how the show is intersecting with current events. PAGE C5

BUSINESS B1-7

Ad Lingo Runs Amok

Humaning. Snackable content. Market-

ing is overrun with buzzwords and

acronyms, and some people are saying

it's enough already.

PAGE B1

SPORTSTUESDAY B8-9

A Change Atop a Marathon

Michael Capiraso, amid complaints about his leadership, is leaving as chief executive of the organization that puts on the New York City event. PAGE B9

EDITORIAL, OP-ED A24-25

Bret Stephens

PAGE A25

SCIENCE TIMES D1-8

Made for Each Other

A surprise clutch of eggs has solved a

century-old leaf insect mystery, showing

that what scientists had regarded as two

species was actually one.

PAGE D8

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