MATTHEW WALSH, LI ANG ZHANG, DAVID BLANCETT Joint All ...

C O R P O R AT I O N

SHERRILL LINGEL, JEFF HAGEN, ERIC HASTINGS, MARY LEE, MATTHEW SARGENT,

MATTHEW WALSH, LI ANG ZHANG, DAVID BLANCETT

Joint All-Domain

Command and

Control for Modern

Warfare

An Analytic Framework for Identifying and Developing

Artificial Intelligence Applications

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Preface

In 2019, Air Combat Command Directorate of Plans, Programs and Requirements (A5/8/9)

asked RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) to examine and recommend opportunities for applying

artificial intelligence (AI) and, more broadly, automation to deliberate planning for joint alldomain command and control (JADC2). JADC2 as envisioned integrates the planning, tasking,

and assessments of operations across the domains of space, information, cyber, air, land, and sea.

The Air Operations Center (AOC) is the primary operational-level central command and

control (C2) node for the U.S. Air Force today. Notwithstanding its historical effectiveness, the

AOC construct has been recently challenged for myriad reasons. First, AOC systems and

personnel are typically located at a forward-deployed, centralized facility. This constitutes a

significant vulnerability and single point of failure. Second, many AOC information systems date

back to the inception of the AOC in about 2000. The cancellation of the AOC 10.2

modernization effort has delayed the delivery of critical hardware and software upgrades to the

AOC. Third, the growing emphasis on improved cyber and space integration has placed new

functional and technical demands on the AOC and increased interest in multidomain operations.

Fourth and finally, numerous breakthroughs have occurred in the fields of AI and machine

learning (ML). Emerging technologies in these areas can enable new capabilities or,

alternatively, can constitute new threats. Thus, this research on AI applications for JADC2 was

conducted in PAF¡¯s Force Modernization program in order to address the question of how the

Air Force can incorporate AI/ML and automation to achieve JADC2. A companion volume,1 not

available to the general public, provides technical details, information about the assessment

process, and descriptions of the vignettes.

This report may be of interest to U.S. Department of Defense leaders and stakeholders in AI

and/or C2 and to congressional audiences with an interest in AI and enabling the U.S. great

power competition.

The research reported here was commissioned by Air Combat Command A5/8/9 and

conducted within the Force Modernization and Employment Program of RAND Project AIR

FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2019 project, AI Applications for JADC2.

1

Sherrill Lingel, Jeff Hagen, Eric Hastings, Mary Lee, Matthew Sargent, Matthew Walsh, Li Ang Zhang, Dave

Blancett, Edward Geist, and Liam Regan, Joint All-Domain Command and Control for Modern Warfare: Technical

Analysis and Supporting Material, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2020, Not available to the general

public.

iii

RAND Project AIR FORCE

RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air

Force¡¯s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF

provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the

development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and

cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine; Force

Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource

Management. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000.

Additional information about PAF is available on our website: paf/

This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force in September 2019. The

draft report, also issued in September 2019, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air

Force subject-matter experts.

iv

Contents

Preface ........................................................................................................................................... iii

Figures ............................................................................................................................................vi

Tables ........................................................................................................................................... vii

Summary...................................................................................................................................... viii

Acknowledgments ..........................................................................................................................xi

Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... xii

1. Challenges of Implementing Joint All-Domain Command and Control

Within the U.S. Air Force¡¯s Current Operational Level Construct ........................................... 1

Current Operational-Level Command and Control Challenges ................................................................ 1

Differences Across Air Operations Centers .............................................................................................. 5

Challenges in Emergence of Near-Peer Threat Environments ................................................................. 6

Central Multidomain Operational Challenges for AOCs .......................................................................... 7

Approach and Organization of This Report .............................................................................................. 9

2. Command and Control Modernization ...................................................................................... 12

Modernization of the Air Operations Center in the Direction of Multidomain ...................................... 12

3. Artificial Intelligence Opportunities for Future Multidomain Operations ................................ 17

The Enabling Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning ..................................................... 17

Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses Vignette ........................................................................................ 19

Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Vignette .......................................................................... 23

Proliferated ISR Vignette ........................................................................................................................ 26

Common Themes Across the Three Vignettes........................................................................................ 29

Joint All-Domain Common Operational Picture..................................................................................... 32

Joint All-Domain Operational Assessment ............................................................................................. 32

Summary of Vignette-Driven Approach ................................................................................................. 33

4. Artificial Intelligence Ecosystem for Joint All-Domain Command and Control ...................... 34

Commercial Best Practices ..................................................................................................................... 35

The Developing U.S. Department of Defense Artificial Intelligence Ecosystem................................... 41

Personnel Considerations ........................................................................................................................ 44

5. Research Conclusions and Recommendations .......................................................................... 46

Issues ....................................................................................................................................................... 46

Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................. 46

Recommendations ................................................................................................................................... 50

References ..................................................................................................................................... 59

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