Quantitative Data Analysis: An Introduction GAO/PEMD-10.1

GAO

May 1992

United States General Accounting Office

Report to Program Evaluation and Methodology Division

Quantitative Data Analysis: An Introduction

GAO/PEMD-10.1.11

Preface

GAO assists congressional decisionmakers in their deliberative process by furnishing analytical information on issues and options under consideration. Many diverse methodologies are needed to develop sound and timely answers to the questions that are posed by the Congress. To provide GAO evaluators with basic information about the more commonly used methodologies, GAO's policy guidance includes documents such as methodology transfer papers and technical guidelines.

This methodology transfer paper on quantitative data analysis deals with information expressed as numbers, as opposed to words, and is about statistical analysis in particular because most numerical analyses by GAO are of that form. The intended reader is the GAO generalist, not statisticians and other experts on evaluation design and methodology. The paper aims to bridge the communications gap between generalist and specialist, helping the generalist evaluator be a wiser consumer of technical advice and helping report reviewers be more sensitive to the potential for methodological errors. The intent is thus to provide a brief tour of the statistical terrain by introducing concepts and issues important to GAO's work, illustrating the use of a variety of statistical methods, discussing factors that influence the choice of methods, and offering some advice on how to avoid pitfalls in the analysis of quantitative data. Concepts are presented in a nontechnical way by avoiding computational procedures, except for a few illustrations, and by avoiding a rigorous discussion of assumptions that underlie statistical methods.

Quantitative Data Analysis is one of a series of papers issued by the Program Evaluation and Methodology Division (PEMD). The purpose of the series is to provide GAO evaluators with guides to various

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aspects of audit and evaluation methodology, to illustrate applications, and to indicate where more detailed information is available. We look forward to receiving comments from the readers of this paper. They should be addressed to Eleanor Chelimsky at 202-275-1854.

Werner Grosshans Assistant Comptroller General Office of Policy

Eleanor Chelimsky Assistant Comptroller General

for Program Evaluation and Methodology

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