S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy - Yardeni Research

S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

Yardeni Research, Inc.

July 6, 2022

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

S&P 500 Revenues Revenues & GDP Revenues & Global Economy Revenues & US Business Sales Revenues & US Factory Orders Revenues & US Trade Revenues, the Dollar, & Commodities Revenues & US GDP Revenues & Business Sales Ex-Energy Revenues & Forward Revenues & Earnings S&P 500 Revenues

1 2-3

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11-12 13-15

July 6, 2022 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

Yardeni Research, Inc.



S&P 500 Revenues

Figure 1.

1850

1750

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: ACTUAL (S&P quarterly data) &

1650

FORWARD (I/B/E/S weekly data)

1550

(dollars, ratio scale)

1450

1350

1250

1150

1050

950

850

Revenues Per Share

Forward* (1784.1)

750

Actual (x4) (1654.9)

650

1850

6/30

1750

1650

1550

1450

1350

1250

1150

1050

950

850

750

650

550

550



450

450

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Time-weighted average of analysts' consensus estimates for S&P 500 revenues per share for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's (for actual revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (for forward revenues).

Figure 2.

30

30

S&P 500 REVENUES

25 (yearly percent change)

25

20

20

15

15

Q1

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

S&P 500 Revenues

-10

Aggregate* (13.5)

-15

Per Share (13.6)

-15

-20

-20



-25

-25

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 1 / July 6, 2022 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Revenues & GDP

Figure 3.

.70

.70

S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES* DIVIDED BY US NOMINAL GDP

.65

.65

.60

.60

Q1

.55

.55

.50

.50



.45

.45

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 4.

30

30

S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & NOMINAL GNP

25

(yearly percent change)

25

20

20

15

15

Q1

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues* (13.5)

-15

Nominal GDP Goods (13.5)

-20

-20



-25

-25

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Standard & Poor's.

Page 2 / July 6, 2022 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Revenues & GDP

Figure 5.

30

30

S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & NOMINAL GNP

25

(yearly percent change)

25

20

20

15

15

10

Q1

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues* (13.5)

-15

Nominal GDP Services (9.5)

-20

-20



-25

-25

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of the Census and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 6.

30

NOMINAL GDP (yearly percent change)

20

30

Nominal GDP

Services (9.5)

20

Goods (13.5)

Q1

10

10



0

0

-10

-10

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 3 / July 6, 2022 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

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Revenues & Global Economy

Figure 7.

104

103 S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & OECD LEADING INDICATORS

102

101

100

99

98

30

20 Q1

10 May

0

97

-10

96

95

OECD Leading Indicators

-20

(amplitude adjusted, nsa*) (99.9)

94

-30

93

S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues**

92

(yearly percent change) (13.5)

-40

91



90

-50

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* A reading above 100 that is rising predicts expansion, above 100 and falling a downturn, below 100 and falling a slowdown, and below 100 and rising a recovery.

** S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's and Haver Analytics.

Page 4 / July 6, 2022 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Revenues & US Business Sales

Figure 8.

23

21 S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & US BUSINESS SALES

19

(trillion dollars, ratio scale)

17

15

13

11

9

23

Apr

21

19

17

15 Q1

13

11

9

7

7

Business Sales*

(saar)

S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues**

5

(x4)

5



3

3

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Manufacturing and trade sales (includes goods, not services). ** S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 9.

45

45

40

S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & US BUSINESS SALES (yearly percent change)

40

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

Apr

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues* (13.5)

-10

-15

Business Sales** (13.9)

-15

-20

-20



-25

-25

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. ** Manufacturing and trade sales.

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau and Standard & Poor's.

Page 5 / July 6, 2022 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Revenues & US Factory Orders

Figure 10.

4.00

S&P 500 REVENUES & US MANUFACTURING ORDERS

3.75

3.50

3.25

May Q1

7000 6500 6000

3.00 5500

2.75

2.50

5000

2.25

4500

2.00

4000

1.75

S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues*

1.50

3500

1.25

Total New Factory Orders (billion dollars, saar)

3000

1.00



.75

2500

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's and Census Bureau.

Figure 11.

40

40

S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & US MANUFACTURING ORDERS (yearly percent change)

20

20

QM1ay

0

0

S&P 500

-20

Aggregate Revenues* (13.5)

-20

Total New Factory Orders (14.0)



-40

-40

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor's and Census Bureau.

Page 6 / July 6, 2022 / S&P 500 Revenues & the Economy

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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