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Weekly Tracking

Public Opinion Research Release Date: August 30, 2021 Field Dates: August 26 to August 30, 2021

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Federal Politics: Tracking

Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing results from the second wave of our election tracking survey.

This online survey was in field from August 26th to August 30th, 2021 with a weighted sample size of 2,400. The full results combines two samples. A core sample of 1,200 asked our standard tracking questions and an additional sample of 1,200 asked a separate set of questions. Detailed methodology is provided in the appendix.

Engagement in the 2021 election remains relatively low. Only the Liberals have reached 50% awareness on the Read/Seen/Heard question. Momentum remains negative for the Liberals, Greens and PPC and positive for the NDP and Bloc. CPC momentum has improved and they now have as many more favourable as less favourable responses.

This momentum is reflected in both vote and leadership. The NDP , Bloc and CPC are seeing gains. The Liberals are dropping. While the Liberals have a 3-point lead among all voters, the CPC close the gap or edge ahead when we look at likely voters. The NDP are relatively stronger in centre-left and economically alienated clusters. The CPC are gaining among more deferential centre-right voters and economic achievers. The Bloc is up in Quebec.

The key factor behind the vote shifts is an 8-point increase in time for a change. Time for a change is now higher than in 2019 and approaching the levels seen by Stephen Harper in 2015, although with a little less intensity.

There has been moderate engagement on the Afghanistan issues with Conservatives following most closely and feeling most angry. The issue is clearly rallying CPC supporters. Most Liberals support the government. Many other voters are ambivalent on the issue.

Campaign Impacts

STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL

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Measuring Campaign Impacts

Each campaign hopes to win over voters first by their ability to capture their attention and second by what those voters hear about them.

INNOVATIVE tracks the impact of each campaign by asking Canadians whether they have heard about each party recently, what they have heard, and whether it has had a positive or negative impact on their impressions of that party.

Each respondent is asked whether they have read, seen, or heard something in the last 7 days about the Liberals, the Conservatives, the Bloc (in Quebec only) and one other party selected randomly from the NDP, Greens and PPC.

For each party that a respondent has heard about, they are asked what they heard and whether that news had a positive or negative impact on their impression of that party.

Campaign Awareness

Liberals Conservatives Bloc (Quebec Only) One of the NDP, PPC, or Green Party

Impact

Among those who have read, seen, or heard something

Attention: Attention to the Liberal campaign is the highest, with half 5 (51%) saying they have heard something about Trudeau and the LPC

Have you read, seen or heard anything about [PARTY] in the last few days?

[only asked of core respondents; n=1200]

y

Liberal Awareness Conservative Awareness

NDP Awareness

x

Bloc Awareness (QC Only) Green Awareness PPC Awareness

51%

42%

41%

52%

32%

59%

30%

58%

13%

82%

16%

Yes No Don't Know

76%

Current data: August 2021

8% 7% 9% 12%

5% 8%

Awareness Tracking: Attention to the Liberals & NDP is steady;

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Conservatives, Bloc & PPC are up while Green is down

Have you read, seen or heard anything about [PARTY] in the last few days? Showing % who have read, seen, or heard about each party.

49%

51%

41%

30%

3320%%

22%

17% 15%

16% 13%

7%

Aug-21 Aug-21 (2)

Current data: August 2021

Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc Green PPC

Attention: 4-in-10 Canadians say they haven't heard anything about 7 any of the campaigns in the last few days

Have you read, seen or heard anything about [PARTY] in the last few days? Showing how many different campaigns each respondent has heard something about in the last few days

[only asked of core respondents; n=1200]

y

Overall

40%

19%

41%

BC Alberta

x

Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic Canada

Current data: August 2021

34% 41% 43%

39% 44%

40% 0 campaigns

17% 20% 19%

19% 17%

19% 1 campaign More than 1 campaign

48% 38% 38%

41% 39%

40%

Attention: Nearly 1-in-3 (31%) definite voters say they haven't heard 8 about the campaigns they were asked about in the last few days

Have you read, seen or heard anything about [PARTY] in the last few days? Showing how many different campaigns each respondent has heard something about in the last few days BY Likelihood to vote

[only asked of core respondents; n=1200]

Overall

40%

19%

41%

Likelihood to Vote y

Definitely Very likely

x

Somewhat likely Not very likely

Definitely will not vote Don't know

Current data: August 2021

31%

19%

48%

54%

63%

80%

76%

15% 22%

0 campaigns 1 campaign More than 1 campaign

50%

37%

24%

25%

12%

14%

6%

17%

7%

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