Automotive Industry Outlook - Center for Automotive …

Automotive Industry

Outlook:

Managing Volatility and Leveraging Opportunities

in a Dynamic Market Environment

February 2019

Mike Wall

Executive Director, Automotive Analysis

+1 248 728 8400 Direct

+1 616 446 6885 Mobile

Mike.Wall@

? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

2

Big Picture: Global Automotive Outlook

Implications for the Global Automotive Industry

Countersynchronization

of auto sales cycles

across world regions continues

with emerging markets and

developed markets on opposite

waves; wave amplitude likely to

dissipate in time

Increased risk of

new disruptive

business models

¡°breaking the forecast¡±

? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Risk of broad retreat

from globalization

Trump, Mexico, China

Brexit, Eurozone

Risk of longer-term

planning volatilities

uncertainties hurt long-term

planning

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World Economic Growth

Global Economic Growth has Peaked and is Vulnerable; Trade Tensions Weigh on Outlook

Annual Real GDP Growth

(in percent)

10.0

2016

2017

2018

8.0

2019

2020

2021-2026

World Average

2019 = 2.9%

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0

World

Source: IHS Markit Data Insight

? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

United

States

Japan

Eurozone

Brazil

Russia

India

China

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Global Light Vehicle Sales

120

Growth rate peaks downhill from here

110

5.0%

110

4.0%

Average growth 3.6%

100

97

92 94 94 95

3.0%

90

2.0%

80

1.0%

70

Source: IHS Markit Light Vehicle Sales Forecasts

? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

2026

2024

2022

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

-1.0%

2006

50

2004

0.0%

2002

60

Annual growth (%)

Annual light vehicle sales (millions)

Volatility Impacts the Near-Term Outlook; Mobility Dynamics Drive Slower Growth Long Term

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The Changing Automotive World

Emerging Markets Outlook is Key to Growth; Limited Potential in Mature Markets

Annual Light Vehicle Sale

(in millions)

50

Mature Markets

China

Emerging Markets

45

40

35

30

25

20

Market Growth

2012-¡¯15 2015-¡¯18 2018-¡¯26

Mature 13%

3%

-3%

China 31%

11%

26%

Emerging -10%

7%

45%

15

10

5

Note: Mature Markets = US, Canada, Japan, S Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe

Source: IHS Markit Light Vehicle Sales Forecast

? 2019 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

2026

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

0

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