AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET - BB&T
Automotive Aftermarket Stock Performance*
20% SLIPPING
Uni-Select
15% 10%
Cooper Tire
S&P 500 Last Week's Return
(5.8%)
Weekly Automotive Aftermarket Intelligence Report August 24, 2015
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET
Solera
LEADING
Last Month's Return
Advance Auto
5%
AutoZone
MPA
0% (5%)
O'Reilly
Monro
Goodyear
Lithia
Penske Tenneco
Group 1 LKQ
Dorman Standard Motor
KAR
Snap-on Rush
Copart Genuine Parts
Boyd
Remy U.S. Auto Parts
S&P 500 Last Month's Return
(7.0%)
(10%)
Pep Boys
Sonic CarMax
AutoNation
Federal-Mogul
(15%) LAGGING
Asbury
(10%)
(5%)
0%
Last Week's Return
IMPROVING 5%
*Size of the bubble represents relative market capitalization Source: CapitalIQ
Segment Index1 Suppliers Retailers & Distributors Independent Service Providers & Dealers Collision
BB&T Automotive Aftermarket Index S&P 500
1 Weighted by market capitalization
Percent Change
1 Week
(6.5%) (5.7%) (5.7%) (4.5%) (6.2%) (5.8%)
1 Month
(1.6%) 1.4% (8.2%) (0.8%) (0.2%) (7.0%)
LTM
12.1% 32.4% 10.8% 5.1% 20.1% 5.0%
1
Automotive Aftermarket Stock Performance
40%
30% 20%
10%
0%
(10%)
(20%) Sep-14
Source: Capital IQ
Oct-14
Most Recent Quarter Sales Growth
(Year-Over-Year)
70% 60%
50%
40% 30%
20%
10% 0%
(10%) (20%) (15.4%)
Source: Capital IQ
1.3% 4.8%
(10.4%)
36.3%
Suppliers
(10.2%)
Nov-14
3.7%
(1.2%) (5.0%)
Dec-14
Jan-15
Suppliers Independent Service Providers & Dealers BB&T Automotive Aftermarket Index
0.0%
6.5%
0.8%
12.4% 10.2%
Retailers & Distributors
Feb-15 Mar-15
0.6%
(0.6%) (14.7%)
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. Dorman Products, Inc. Federal-Mogul Corp.
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. Motorcar Parts of America Inc.
Remy International, Inc. Snap-on Inc.
Standard Motor Products Inc. Tenneco Inc.
Advance Auto Parts Inc. AutoZone, Inc.
Genuine Parts Company KAR Auction Services, Inc.
O'Reilly Automotive Inc. Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. Uni-Select Inc.
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. AutoNation Inc. CarMax Inc.
Group 1 Automotive Inc. Lithia Motors Inc.
Monro Muffler Brake Inc. Penske Automotive Group, Inc. Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack
Rush Enterprises, Inc. Sonic Automotive Inc. Boyd Group Income Fund
Copart, Inc. KAR Auction Services, Inc.
LKQ Corp. Solera Holdings Inc.
Apr-15
12.4% 9.1% 7.1% 8.6%
May-15
Retailers & Distributors Collision S&P 500 Index
63.4%
Independent Service Providers & Dealers
12.2% 8.7%
Jun-15
0.6%
12.5%
Jul-15
3.0%
37.4%
Aug-15
12.4% 7.5% 7.1%
(4.1%)
Collision
2
Enterprise Value / Last 12 Months' EBITDA Multiples1,2,3
SUPPLIERS
10.0x 9.5x
8.0x
8.4x
8.4x
8.5x
6.0x
4.0x
2.0x
0.0x One Year Ago
One Month Ago 5-Year Average
Current
RETAILERS & DISTRIBUTORS
14.0x 12.0x 10.0x
8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x
11.2x One Year Ago
12.7x
12.0x
One Month Ago 5-Year Average
Current
10.1x
INDEPENDENT SERVICE PROVIDERS & DEALERS
14.0x 12.0x 10.0x
8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x
13.0x One Year Ago
13.1x
12.7x
One Month Ago 5-Year Average
Current
11.9x
TOTAL AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET
14.0x 12.0x 10.0x
8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x
10.9x One Year Ago
11.8x
11.5x
One Month Ago 5-Year Average
Current
11.2x
COLLISION
16.0x 14.0x 12.0x 10.0x
8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x
14.6x One Year Ago
12.6x
12.4x
One Month Ago 5-Year Average
Current
12.4x
1 Enterprise Value = Market Capitalization + Debt ? Cash; EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization 2 Pep Boys is included in both Retailers & Distributors and Independent Service Providers & Dealers 3 KAR is included in both Retailers & Distributors and Collision Source: Capital IQ
3
Valuation Metrics
As of 8/23/2015
($ in millions, except per share)
Ticker
Stock Price
52 Week High / Low
SUPPLIERS
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co.
CTB
$36.30 $43.94 / $27.24
Dorman Products, Inc.
DORM
$48.97 $53.69 / $37.22
Federal-Mogul Corp.
FDML
$9.05 $18.09 / $8.79
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.
GT
$28.99 $32.95 / $18.87
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.
MPAA
$29.65 $36.62 / $22.12
Remy International, Inc.
REMY
$29.25 $29.73 / $16.31
Snap-on, Inc.
SNA
$157.68 $170.70 / $111.28
Standard Motor Products, Inc.
SMP
$34.67 $43.72 / $30.30
Tenneco, Inc.
TEN
$45.98 $65.33 / $45.98
MEAN
MEDIAN
RETAILERS & DISTRIBUTORS
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
AAP
$174.76 $192.27 / $128.20
AutoZone, Inc.
AZO
$696.01 $754.90 / $491.93
Genuine Parts Company
GPC
$81.11 $109.00 / $81.11
KAR Auction Services, Inc.
KAR
$36.51 $39.87 / $25.91
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
ORLY
$234.84 $258.15 / $146.22
Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack
PBY
$10.59 $12.62 / $8.00
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc.
PRTS
$2.05 $3.34 / $1.50
Uni-Select, Inc.1
UNS
$42.75 $45.80 / $20.63
MEAN
MEDIAN
INDEPENDENT SERVICE PROVIDERS & DEALERS
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
ABG
$77.76 $96.58 / $60.63
AutoNation, Inc.
AN
$58.01 $67.50 / $46.16
CarMax, Inc.
KMX
$58.24 $75.40 / $43.27
Group 1 Automotive, Inc.
GPI
$85.71 $97.34 / $65.49
Lithia Motors, Inc.
LAD
$102.60 $122.01 / $63.05
Monro Muffler Brake, Inc.
MNRO
$61.69 $67.93 / $46.93
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
PAG
$48.34 $54.39 / $36.36
Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack
PBY
$10.59 $12.62 / $8.00
Rush Enterprises, Inc.
RUSH.B $31.33 $31.64 / $19.58
Sonic Automotive, Inc.
SAH
$21.15 $27.84 / $21.03
MEAN
MEDIAN
COLLISION
Boyd Group Income Fund1
BYD.UN $45.40 $49.70 / $27.68
Copart, Inc.
CPRT
$34.04 $38.50 / $29.93
KAR Auction Services, Inc.
KAR
$36.51 $39.87 / $25.91
LKQ Corp.
LKQ
$28.67 $32.25 / $22.90
Solera Holdings, Inc.
SLH
$42.76 $67.39 / $36.14
MEAN
MEDIAN
Market Cap
$2,067 1,770 1,515 7,888 543 931 9,361 781 2,852
$3,079 $1,770
$12,992 21,639 12,648 5,251 23,675
585 75 936 $9,725 $8,950
$2,102 6,681 12,395 2,094 2,757 2,000 4,419
585 1,333 1,080 $3,545 $2,098
$761 4,376 5,251 8,986 3,040 $4,483 $4,376
Price /
P / E
Forward PEG
TEV TBV LTM CY 2015 CY 2016 CY 2015 CY 2016
$2,014 1,703 4,298 13,148
564 1,178 10,177
822 3,903 $4,201 $2,014
2.8x 9.9x 11.6x 11.0x 3.7x 20.2x 18.4x 16.1x NM 17.4x 10.5x 9.1x 2.4x 12.3x 9.4x 8.0x 2.9x NM 17.2x 13.9x NM 37.1x 17.9x 15.2x 7.1x 22.7x 19.6x 17.4x 2.6x 16.1x 14.8x 12.5x 6.2x 12.3x 10.0x 8.6x 4.0X 18.5X 14.4X 12.4X 2.9X 16.8X 14.8X 12.5X
NA NA 1.0x 0.9x NA NA NA NA 0.7x 0.6x 1.3x 1.1x 1.8x 1.6x 1.2x 1.0x 0.9x 0.8x 1.2X 1.0X 1.1X 0.9X
$14,331 22.3x 22.1x 21.1x 17.9x 1.5x 1.3x 26,005 NM 20.6x 19.4x 17.2x 1.4x 1.2x 13,286 6.8x 17.7x 17.4x 15.9x 1.9x 1.7x
7,887 NM 24.6x 21.0x 18.2x 1.6x 1.4x 24,812 19.5x 28.8x 26.4x 23.2x 1.5x 1.4x
878 1.2x NM NM NM NM NM 89 4.3x NM NM NM NM NM 965 4.0x 21.0x 17.4x 17.8x 5.8x 5.9x $11,031 9.7X 22.5X 20.4X 18.4X 2.3X 2.1X $10,586 5.5X 21.6X 20.2X 17.8X 1.5X 1.4X
$3,720 8.9x 15.3x 13.8x 12.4x 0.8x 0.8x 12,065 12.1x 14.8x 14.0x 12.6x 0.8x 0.7x 21,529 3.8x 20.7x 22.4x 19.0x 1.4x 1.2x 4,686 NM 11.9x 11.9x 10.9x 0.8x 0.8x 4,588 6.9x 16.7x 15.1x 13.5x 0.7x 0.6x 2,242 4.1x 31.5x 32.7x 28.7x 1.9x 1.6x 8,620 NM 14.7x 12.7x 11.5x 1.0x 0.9x
878 1.2x NM NM NM NM NM 2,464 3.6x 25.9x 16.1x 13.9x NA NA 3,217 8.3x 11.2x 11.2x 10.0x 1.0x 0.9x $6,401 6.1X 18.1X 16.6X 14.7X 1.1X 0.9X $4,154 5.5X 15.3X 14.0X 12.6X 0.9X 0.8X
$828 NM 26.1x 27.1x 22.4x NA NA 4,363 5.2x 20.0x 21.1x 18.6x 1.6x 1.4x 7,887 NM 24.6x 21.0x 18.2x 1.6x 1.4x 10,537 20.5x 22.2x 20.2x 17.7x 1.0x 0.9x 5,353 NM 35.4x 13.9x 14.5x 1.2x 1.2x $5,794 12.8X 25.7X 20.6X 18.3X 1.3X 1.2X $5,353 12.8X 24.6X 21.0X 18.2X 1.4X 1.3X
TEV / Revenue
TEV / EBITDA
LTM CY 2015 CY 2016 LTM CY 2015 CY 2016
0.6x 0.7x 0.7x 3.9x 4.7x 4.6x 2.2x 2.1x 1.9x 11.2x 10.4x 9.2x 0.6x 0.6x 0.5x 7.0x 6.8x 5.9x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 5.6x 5.2x 5.0x 1.7x 1.8x 1.5x NM 8.6x 6.9x 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x 9.1x 9.8x 8.2x 2.8x 3.0x 2.8x 12.8x 12.7x 11.5x 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 7.3x 8.2x NA 0.5x 0.5x 0.4x 5.3x 5.0x 4.5x 1.2X 1.3X 1.2X 7.8X 7.9X 7.0X 0.8X 0.8X 0.8X 7.1X 8.2X 6.4X
1.4x 1.5x 1.4x 11.2x 11.0x 9.6x 2.6x 2.6x 2.4x 11.9x 11.7x 11.0x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x 10.4x 10.1x 9.5x 3.2x 3.1x 2.9x 12.7x 12.0x 11.1x 3.3x 3.2x 3.0x 15.4x 14.7x 13.4x 0.4x 0.4x 0.4x 11.1x 8.8x NA 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 23.2x 11.6x 8.8x 0.6x 0.7x 0.9x 11.0x 10.4x 10.5x 1.6X 1.6X 1.5X 13.4X 11.3X 10.5X 1.2X 1.2X 1.1X 11.5X 11.3X 10.5X
0.6x 0.6x 0.5x 11.7x 11.3x 10.5x 0.6x 0.6x 0.5x 12.3x 11.9x 11.0x 1.5x 1.5x 1.4x 19.3x 19.9x 17.4x 0.5x 0.4x 0.4x 11.4x 11.7x 10.9x 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x 14.2x 12.7x 11.5x 2.5x 2.5x 2.3x 14.8x 15.7x 13.5x 0.5x 0.5x 0.4x 13.1x 13.0x 12.2x 0.4x 0.4x 0.4x 11.1x 8.8x NA 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x 13.1x 14.0x 11.4x 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 11.0x 11.3x 10.5x 0.8X 0.8X 0.7X 13.2X 13.0X 12.1X 0.6X 0.6X 0.5X 12.7X 12.3X 11.4X
1.0x 1.0x 0.9x 13.1x 11.6x 10.3x 3.8x 3.8x 3.7x 10.5x 11.0x 10.2x 3.2x 3.1x 2.9x 12.7x 12.0x 11.1x 1.5x 1.4x 1.3x 12.8x 12.2x 10.8x 4.8x 4.7x 4.2x 13.1x 11.7x 11.0x 2.9X 2.8X 2.6X 12.4X 11.7X 10.7X 3.2X 3.1X 2.9X 12.8X 11.7X 10.8X
1 Stock Prices, Market Cap, and Enterprise Values converted at the exchange rate as of the date above * D efinitions: LTM = Last Twelve Months; EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization; P / E = Stock Price / Earnings Per Share; TEV = Total Enterprise Value
TBV = Tangible Book Value; PEG = (Calendarized P / E) / Long Term Growth Rate Sources: Capital IQ, Company filings
4
Operating Results
Last 12 Months as of 8/23/2015
($ in millions, except per share)
Ticker LTM Date Revenue EBITDA
SUPPLIERS
Affinia Group Intermediate Holdings, Inc.1 N/A
06/30/15 $1,352 $159
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co.
CTB
06/30/15 3,155
522
Dorman Products, Inc.
DORM 06/27/15
759
152
Federal-Mogul Corp.
FDML 06/30/15 7,463
569
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.
GT
06/30/15 17,209 2,366
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.
MPAA 06/30/15 325
38
Remy International, Inc.
REMY 06/30/15 1,149
129
Snap-on, Inc.
SNA
07/04/15 3,572
796
Standard Motor Products, Inc.
SMP 06/30/15
972
113
Tenneco, Inc.
TEN
06/30/15 8,238
732
UCI Holdings Limited1
N/A
06/30/15 1,014
99
MEAN
$4,110 $516
MEDIAN
$1,352 $159
RETAILERS & DISTRIBUTORS
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
AAP
07/18/15 $9,935 $1,283
American Tire Distributors Holdings, Inc.1 N/A
01/03/15 5,031
242
AutoZone, Inc.
AZO
05/09/15 9,947 2,183
Genuine Parts Company2
GPC 06/30/15 15,485 1,276
KAR Auction Services, Inc.
KAR
06/30/15 2,486
622
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
ORLY 06/30/15 7,578 1,611
Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack3
PBY
05/02/15 2,088
79
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc.
PRTS 07/04/15
291
4
Uni-Select, Inc.5
UNS 06/30/15 1,713
92
MEAN
$6,061 $821
MEDIAN
$5,031 $622
INDEPENDENT SERVICE PROVIDERS & DEALERS
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
ABG 06/30/15 $6,240 $317
AutoNation, Inc.
AN
06/30/15 20,125
981
CarMax, Inc.
KMX 05/31/15 14,533 1,116
Group 1 Automotive, Inc.
GPI
06/30/15 10,325
412
Lithia Motors, Inc.
LAD
06/30/15 6,877
329
Monro Muffler Brake, Inc.
MNRO 06/27/15
914
152
Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
PAG
06/30/15 18,167
617
Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack4
PBY
05/02/15 2,088
79
Rush Enterprises, Inc.
RUSH.B 06/30/15 5,110
284
Sonic Automotive, Inc.
SAH
06/30/15 9,367
291
MEAN
$9,375 $458
MEDIAN
$8,122 $323
COLLISION
Boyd Group Income Fund5
BYD.UN 06/30/15 $816
$67
Copart, Inc.6
CPRT 04/30/15 1,151
416
KAR Auction Services, Inc.
KAR
06/30/15 2,486
622
LKQ Corp.7
LKQ
06/30/15 7,017
831
Solera Holdings, Inc.
SLH
03/31/15 1,112
410
MEAN
$2,516 $469
MEDIAN
$1,151 $416
Net EBIT Income
$138 394 139 232 1,655 35 59 729 96 542 48 $370 $139
$53 230 88 (192) 2,706
9 12 450 43 226 (41) $326 $53
$1,005 89
1,914 1,130
419 1,402
5 (5) 79 $671 $419
$505 (95) 1,133 712 212 845 (17) (6) (44) $361 $212
$289 $121
865
450
996
610
367
127
294
168
115
64
542
316
5
(17)
154
84
228
80
$386 $200
$291 $124
$49
($2)
368
213
419
212
702
399
257
55
$359 $175
$368 $212
Margins Gross EBITDA EBIT
23.6% 20.6% 38.5% 13.8% 24.8% 27.7% 15.9% 50.3% 28.9% 16.9% 12.9% 24.9% 23.6%
11.8% 16.6% 20.0%
7.6% 13.7% 11.7% 11.2% 22.3% 11.6% 8.9% 9.8% 13.2% 11.7%
10.2% 12.5% 18.3% 3.1% 9.6% 10.9% 5.1% 20.4% 9.9% 6.6% 4.7% 10.1% 9.9%
45.5% 17.6% 52.2% 29.8% 44.1% 51.8% 23.1% 27.6%
NM 36.5% 36.9%
12.9% 4.8% 21.9% 8.2% 25.0% 21.3% 3.8% 1.3% 5.3% 11.6% 8.2%
10.1% 1.8% 19.2% 7.3% 16.9% 18.5% 0.3% (1.6%) 4.6% 8.6% 7.3%
16.3% 15.7% 15.9% 14.5% 15.0% 39.7% 15.0% 23.1% 15.6% 14.7% 18.6% 15.6%
5.1% 4.9% 7.7% 4.0% 4.8% 16.6% 3.4% 3.8% 5.6% 3.1% 5.9% 4.8%
4.6% 4.3% 6.9% 3.6% 4.3% 12.6% 3.0% 0.3% 3.0% 2.4% 4.5% 3.9%
45.9% 43.7% 44.1% 39.2% 66.4% 47.9% 44.1%
8.2% 36.2% 25.0% 11.8% 36.9% 23.6% 25.0%
5.9% 32.0% 16.9% 10.0% 23.1% 17.6% 16.9%
Sales Growth
EBITDA Growth SSS
NI 1 Year 5 Year 1 Year 5 Year Latest Q
3.9% 12.9% (6.6%) 23.3% (1.0%)
7.3% (6.6%) 0.1% 9.5% 7.8%
11.6% 4.3% 13.2% (0.1%) 17.2%
(2.6%) 6.1% 4.9% (6.6%) 0.4%
15.7% (9.0%) (0.5%) 7.4% 9.3%
2.9% 19.6% 16.6% (6.0%) 7.8%
1.0% (3.1%) 2.7% (3.1%) (1.3%)
12.6% 6.3% 7.4% 14.5% 17.9%
4.4% (1.6%) 4.6% (9.9%) 16.6%
2.7% (1.1%) 8.8% (1.2%) 9.3%
(4.1%) 13.1% 2.1% (2.7%) 13.7%
5.0% 3.7% 4.8% 2.3% 8.9%
NA
3.9% 4.3% 4.6% (1.2%) 9.3%
NA
5.1% 20.5% 11.9% 20.2% 13.5% 0.7%
(1.9%) 31.1% 18.3% 29.4% 19.4%
11.4% 4.5% 6.8% 4.9% 8.5% 2.3%
4.6% 5.1% 8.0% 3.1% 9.4% 4.0%
8.5% 10.8%
NA 30.2%
NA
11.2% 9.4% 8.3% 17.4% 15.2% 7.2%
(0.8%) 0.9% 1.6% (29.9%) (10.1%) 0.6%
(2.0%) 9.4% 7.6% (46.8%) (18.0%)
(2.6%) (3.9%) 6.0% 5.6% 4.3% 1.1%
3.7% 9.8% 8.6% 3.8% 5.3% 2.7%
4.6% 9.4% 7.8% 5.6% 9.0% 1.7%
1.9% 2.2% 4.2% 1.2% 2.4% 7.0% 1.7% (0.8%) 1.7% 0.8% 2.2% 1.8%
11.0% 10.9% 11.7% 9.9% 56.5% 8.4% 14.6% 0.9% 28.4% 3.5% 15.6% 10.9%
12.2% 11.6% 12.9% 15.6% 29.2% 9.0% 12.6% 1.6% 33.4%
7.7% 14.6% 12.4%
12.8% 19.0% 16.7% 13.7% 14.8% 12.2% 26.9% 19.7% 39.8% 36.4% 13.1% 11.1% 15.0% 16.1% (29.9%) (10.1%) 30.2% 34.9% (2.9%) 6.6% 13.6% 16.0% 14.9% 14.9%
(0.4%) 1.3%
0.5% 0.5%
(0.2%) 46.0% 36.8% 63.6% 41.4% 5.8%
18.5% 1.0% 8.5% 19.6% 8.3% 5.6%
8.5% 10.8%
NA 30.2%
NA
5.7% 17.9% 25.7% 15.1% 21.3% 7.5%
4.9% 18.5% 12.4% 13.4% 10.4%
7.5% 18.9% 20.8% 28.4% 20.3% 6.3%
5.7% 17.9% 19.0% 19.6% 15.8% 5.8%
1 Affinia Group, American Tire Distributors, and UCI International have publicly traded debt only and thus are included in operating and performance metrics, but not valuation multiples 2 Same Store Sales for Genuine Parts reflects automotive segment only 3 Same Store Sales reflect Pep Boys' merchandise business only 4 Same Store Sales reflect Pep Boys' service business only 5 Reported results converted at the exchange rate as of the above date 6 Same Store Sales reflect Copart's organic comp growth 7 Same Store Sales reflect LKQ's organic growth for parts and services * D efinitions: LTM = Last Twelve Months; EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization; EBIT = Earnings Before Interest & Taxes; NI = Net Income
SSS = Same Store Sales, where applicable Sources: Capital IQ, Company filings
5
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