S&P 500 Sectors & Industries Profit Margins
S&P 500 Sectors & Industries Profit Margins (quarterly)
Yardeni Research, Inc.
December 10, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306 jabbott@
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
S&P 500 Operating Profit Margins
S&P 500 Profit Margin
3-6
S&P 500 Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins
7-8
Communication Services
5-6
Consumer Discretionary
7-8
Consumer Staples
9
Energy
10
Health Care
11
Industrials
12
Information Technology
13
Materials
14
December 10, 2021 / S&P 500 Sectors & Industries Profit Margins
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Profit Margin
Figure 1.
16
14
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN (percent, quarterly)
12
16
14 Q3
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
S&P 500 Profit Margin
-4
Operating* (13.6)
-4
Reported** (12.6)
-6
-6
-8
-8
-10
-10
-12
-12
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* S&P 500 operating earnings per share (I/B/E/S data) divided by S&P 500 revenues per share. ** S&P 500 reported earnings divided by S&P 500 revenues per share.
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 2.
14
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN 13 (percent, trailing four-quarter average)
14
Q3
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
Operating (13.1)
3
2
Reported (11.6)
2
1
1
0
0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Standard & Poor's (revenues and reported EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).
Page 3 / December 10, 2021 / S&P 500 Sectors & Industries Profit Margins
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Profit Margin
Figure 3.
15
S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN (percent)
Quarterly (13.6)
Trailing four-quarter
10
average (13.1)
15 Q3
10
5
5
0
0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation (revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).
Figure 4.
15
S&P 500 REPORTED PROFIT MARGIN (percent)
10
15 Q3
10
5
5
0
0
Quarterly (12.6)
-5
Trailing four-quarter
-5
average (11.6)
-10
-10
-15
-15
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.
Page 4 / December 10, 2021 / S&P 500 Sectors & Industries Profit Margins
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Profit Margin
Figure 5.
14
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN (percent, dividing forward earnings by forward revenues)
13
14
12/2
21
13
22
12
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
Consensus Forecasts
8
Annual
52-week forward* (13.3)
7
7
6
6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 6.
14
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN MEASURES (percent)
13
14
Q132/2
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
S&P 500 Operating Profit Margins
Forward*
8
Actual (trailing 4Q average)
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* Forward earnings divided by forward revenues. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor's.
Page 5 / December 10, 2021 / S&P 500 Sectors & Industries Profit Margins
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Profit Margin
Figure 7.
14
S&P 500 & PROFIT MARGIN
13
S&P 500 index (4701.2)
12
Operating trailing
4-quarter profit margin (13.1)
11
Q3 12/8
5250 4750 4250 3750
10
3250
9
2750
8
2250
7
1750
6
1250
5
750
4
250
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 8.
14
S&P 500 & FORWARD PROFIT MARGIN S&P 500 index (4701.2)
13 Forward profit margin (13.3)
12
11
12/2 12/8
5500 5000 4500 4000 3500
10
3000
2500 9
2000 8
1500
7 1000
6
500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 6 / December 10, 2021 / S&P 500 Sectors & Industries Profit Margins
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins
Figure 9.
14
12 S&P 500
Operating Profit Margin* (trailing 4-quarter, %)
Q3
10
16
HEALTH CARE
S&P 500 Sectors Operating Profit Margins
14
Q3
12
8
Q3
10
6
8
4
S&P 500 (12.6)
2 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
20
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
15
Q3
10
5 (16.9)
0
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
14
12 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
Q3
10
8
Q3
6
4
(7.4)
2
0 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
14
CONSUMER STAPLES
12
Q3
10
8
Q3
6
(7.4)
4
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
15
10 ENERGY
Q3
5 Q3
0
-5
(9.4)
6
4 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
14
INDUSTRIALS
Q3
12
10
Q3
8
6
(7.4)
4
2
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
25
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Q3
20
15 Q3
10
(22.7)
5
0
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 14
MATERIALS
QQ33
12
10
8
6
4
(12.2)
2
0
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 30
REAL ESTATE
25
(20.4)
Q3
20
15 Q3
10
-10
(2.9)
5
-15 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
30
25 FINANCIALS
Q3
20
15 10
Q3
5
0
-5
Includes Real Estate
-10
through Q2-2016
(23.3)
-15 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
0 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
16
UTILITIES
Q3
14
Q3
12
10
8
(13.5)
6
4
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
* Operating margin in percent and based on trailing 4-quarter EPS and sales. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 7 / December 10, 2021 / S&P 500 Sectors & Industries Profit Margins
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins
Figure 10.
14
12 S&P 500
Q3
10
8
Operating Profit Margin*
6
Actual 4Q Trailing
Implied Forward
4 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
20
17 COMMUNCATION SERVICES
Q3
14
11
8
5
13
HEALTH CARE
12
11
S&P 500 Sectors Forecasted & Actual Profit Margins
10 Q3
9
8
7 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
13
INDUSTRIALS
11 12/1
9
Q3
7
5
2 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
13
11 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
9
7
Q3
5
3
3 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
30
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
25 Q3
20
15
10
1 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
8.5
8.0 CONSUMER STAPLES
7.5
Q3
7.0
6.5
6.0
5 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
15
MATERIALS
Q3
12
9
6
3
5.5 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25
20 ENERGY
15
10
5
Q3
0
-5
-10
-15 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
40
30 FINANCIALS
20
Q3
10
0
Includes Real Estate
-10
through Q2-2016
-20 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
30
REAL ESTATE
25
Q3
20
15
10
5 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
16
UTILITIES
Q3
14
12
10
8
6
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
* Actual from S&P based on trailing 4-quarter EPS and sales. Forecast implied from I/B/E/S consensus forward EPS and sales, and pushed one year ahead. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation (trailing 4-quarter margin) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (forward margin).
Page 8 / December 10, 2021 / S&P 500 Sectors & Industries Profit Margins
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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