MSCI Forward Profit Margins - Yardeni Research

Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward Profit Margins

Yardeni Research, Inc.

November 23, 2021

Dr. Ed Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

jabbott@ Mali Quintana

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aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

World Advanced Economies Europe Emerging Economies Countries A-Z

3 4-5

6 7-8 9-30

November 23, 2021 / MSCI Forward Profit Margins

Yardeni Research, Inc.



World

Figure 1.

14

MSCI FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS: WORLD (using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts)

13

Forward profit margin*

12

All Country World ex-US (9.2)

EMU (8.6)

Emerging Markets (8.0)

11

US (13.1)

10

9

14

13

12

11

10

11/18

9

8

8

7

7

6

6



5

5

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 2.

14

14

MSCI FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS: WORLD

(using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts)

13

13

12

12

11

11

11/18

10

10

9

9

8

8

7

Forward profit margin*

7

All Country World (10.8)

6

All Country World ex-US (9.2)

6

US (13.1)



5

5

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 3 / November 23, 2021 / MSCI Forward Profit Margins

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Advanced Economies

Figure 3.

14

14

MSCI FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS: ADVANCED ECONOMIES

13 (using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts)

13

12

12

11

11

10

11/18

10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

Forward profit margin*

4

Europe ex-UK (9.9)

4

3

Japan (7.3)

3

United Kingdom (10.6)

2

United States S&P 500 (13.3)

2



1

1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 4.

16

16

MSCI FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS: ADVANCED ECONOMIES

15 (using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts)

15

14

11/18

14

13

13

12

12

11

11

10

10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

Forward profit margin*

5

Canada (13.8)

5

EAFE (9.5)

4

United States S&P 500 (13.3)

4



3

3

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 4 / November 23, 2021 / MSCI Forward Profit Margins

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Advanced Economies

Figure 5.

15

15

MSCI FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS: ADVANCED ECONOMIES

14 (using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts)

14

13

13

12

12

11

11

10

10

9

9

8

8

11/18

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

Forward profit margin*

4

Germany (7.6)

3

Japan (7.3)

3

2

United Kingdom (10.6)

2

United States S&P 500 (13.3)



1

1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 6.

11

MSCI FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS: ADVANCED ECONOMIES (using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts)

10

9

11

10 11/18

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

Forward profit margin*

3

EAFE (9.5)

2

Europe (10.4)

2

Japan (7.3)



1

1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S dat aby Refinitiv.

Page 5 / November 23, 2021 / MSCI Forward Profit Margins

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Europe

Figure 7.

18

18

MSCI FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS: EUROPE

(using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts)

Forward profit margin*

16

France (8.8)

16

Germany (7.6)

Italy (8.3)

14

Spain (10.5)

14

12

12

10

10

11/18

8

8

6

6

4

4



2

2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S dat aby Refinitiv.

Figure 8.

13

MSCI FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS: EUROPE (using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts)

12

11

10

13

Forward profit margin*

United Kingdom (10.6)

12

Europe ex-UK (9.9)

11 11/18

10

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

6



5

5

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 6 / November 23, 2021 / MSCI Forward Profit Margins

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Emerging Economies

Figure 9.

15

15

MSCI FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS: EMERGING MARKETS

14 (using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts)

Forward profit margin*

14

Emerging Markets (8.0)

13

EM Asia (6.9)

13

12

EM Latin America (10.7)

12

11

11

10

10

9

9

8

11/18

8

7

7

6

6

5

5



4

4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 10.

22

22

MSCI FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS: EMERGING ECONOMIES

(using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts) 20

Forward profit margin*

20

Brazil (11.7)

Russia (18.6)

18

India (11.4)

18

China (5.0)

16

16

14

14

12

11/18

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4



2

2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 7 / November 23, 2021 / MSCI Forward Profit Margins

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Emerging Economies

Figure 11.

24

24

MSCI FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS: EMERGING ECONOMIES

22 (using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts) Forward profit margin*

22

China (5.0)

Korea (9.3)

20

India (11.4)

Taiwan (10.4)

20

Indonesia (16.8)

Turkey (10.9)

18

18

16

16

14

14

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

11/18

4

4



2

2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 12.

18

18

MSCI FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS: EMERGING ECONOMIES

(using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts) 16

Forward profit margin*

16

Argentina (5.9)

14

Brazil (11.7)

14

Mexico (7.9)

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

11/18

6

4

4

2

2

0

0



-2

-2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 8 / November 23, 2021 / MSCI Forward Profit Margins

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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