Seasonal Climate Forecast Nov. 2021 –Jan. 2022

Seasonal Climate Forecast

August ¨C October 2024

Issued: July 18, 2024

Contact: ODF Lead Meteorologist Pete Parsons

503-945-7448 or peter.gj.parsons@odf.

ODA Team: Diana Walker; Andy Zimmerman; Jenn Ambrose; Taylor Harding

ODF Team: Julie Vondrachek; Kristin Cody

El Ni?o vs La Ni?a

(SST Patterns in the Tropical Pacific Ocean)

Courtesy:

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Animated (PowerPoint only) SSTs (top) / Anomalies (bottom)

El Ni?o has transitioned to ENSO-Neutral

Courtesy:

El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Current Status and Forecast

The June Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was 0.0, reflecting the

recent transition to ENSO-neutral conditions.

n

The April ¨C June Oceanic Ni?o Index (ONI) fell to +0.4¡ãC, which

also reflects cooling of central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea

surface temperatures (SSTs) into the ENSO-neutral range.

n

NOAA¡¯s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicts continued cooling

of central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean SSTs and a transition from

ENSO-neutral to La Ni?a during the August ¨C October period.

n

Note: This ¡°analog¡± forecast does not consider NOAA¡¯s ENSO forecast. It uses

only historical and current ENSO conditions to find ¡°analog years¡± that most-closely

match the recent evolution of the ENSO state.



Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

(1957-1958; 1965-1966; 1972-1973)

La Ni?a

June 2024 SOI

(0.0) reflects

ENSO-neutral

conditions

ENSO-neutral

El Ni?o

Top 3 June

SOI analogs

ranged from

ENSO-neutral

to La Ni?a

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