THE 2030 SPIKE - CIA

T HE 2030 S PIKE

COUNTDOWN

TO

GLOBAL CATASTROPHE

Colin Mason

London ? Sterling, VA

First published in the UK and USA in 2003 by Earthscan Publications Ltd

Reprinted 2004

Copyright ? Colin Mason, 2003

All rights reserved

ISBN: 1-84407-018-2

Typesetting by MapSet Ltd, Gateshead, UK

Printed and bound in the UK by Creative Print and Design (Wales),

Ebbw Vale

Cover design by Ruth Bateson

For a full list of publications please contact:

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Earthscan publishes in association with WWF-UK and the International

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A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Mason, Colin, 1926The 2030 spike : countdown to global catastrophe / Colin Mason.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 1-84407-018-2 (hbk.)

1. Twenty-first century¡ªForecasts. 2. Environmental policy. 3. Natural

resources. 4. Social prediction. 5. Catastrophical, The. I. Title: Two

thousand thirty spike. II. Title: Two thousand and thirty spike. III. Title:

Twenty-thirty spike. IV. Title.

CB161.M384 2003

303.49¡ªdc21

2003006476

This book is printed on elemental chlorine-free paper

C ONTENTS

About the Author

v

PART ONE: CRISIS MODE

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

The Drivers

Running Out of Fuel: The Coming Energy Crunch

Population and Poverty

Climate: Too Hot or Too Cold?

Famines: Food and Water

One World?

The Fourth Horseman

3

9

21

29

41

53

62

PART TWO: DIRECTIONS

8

9

10

11

12

Which Way Science?

In the Genes: New Plants ¨C and People?

The Values of the Sea

Multinationals: Good Business or Bad?

The Trouble with Money

PART THREE: UPGRADING

13

14

15

16

17

18

75

83

94

101

110

THE INDIVIDUAL

The Pursuit of Happiness

Love, Family and Freedom

Habitat: The Dilemma of the Cities

Making Education Work

Health and Wealth

Religion: The Cement of Society?

123

130

135

145

153

161

iv

THE 2030 SPIKE

PART FOUR: THE NEW SOCIETY?

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

The Mechanics of Change

Automation and Employment

Travelling Less?

Working Online

The Information Overload

The Toxic Culture

Running the Show

Conclusion: World to Come

Notes

Index

171

178

186

192

199

205

211

220

230

244

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