April 2019 Trump’s Foreign - Council on Foreign Relations

Council Special Report No. 84 April 2019

Trump's Foreign Policies Are Better Than They Seem

Robert D. Blackwill

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CONTENTS

iv Foreword vi Acknowledgments

2 Introduction 8 China 18 Climate Change 21 North Korea 27 NATO and European Security 32 Russia 39 Iran 42 Syria 44 Saudi Arabia 47 Israel 49 Afghanistan 54 India 57 Venezuela 59 Trade 65 Conclusion: Grade for Trump's Overall Foreign Policy

69 Endnotes 104 About the Author

Contents

iii

FOREWORD

It is not easy to attempt a fair assessment of President Donald J. Trump's foreign policy. In part this is because of circumstances, namely that we are just past the halfway mark of his term, which began in January 2017. "Incomplete" is on one level the only appropriate mark.

But the difficulty in assessing this president also reflects the style of his foreign policy, including the frequent recourse to social media, the secrecy that has surrounded critical summits, the high turnover of senior-level officials, and the gaps that often appear between the positions of these aides and the president. It can be difficult to keep up and to be confident as to just what foreign policy is being implemented.

In this new Council Special Report, however, Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy Robert D. Blackwill attempts just such an assessment. He goes about it the right way, evaluating President Trump's foreign policy not against his and his administration's rhetoric but against its impact on the U.S. national interest.

Blackwill examines President Trump's actions in important policy areas, including ties with allies, relations with China and Russia, and policies toward the Middle East, North Korea, Venezuela, trade, and climate change. He then grades each of the president's major foreign policies and offers an overall assessment of the quality of the Trump administration's foreign policy halfway through its first term.

Blackwill argues that even though many of President Trump's actions have been impetuous and the president oversees a chaotic and often dysfunctional policymaking process, some of his individual foreign policies are better than his critics give him credit for. Blackwill points to what he sees as a much-needed toughening of U.S. policy toward China, a justified U.S. withdrawal from Syria and disengagement from Afghanistan, and closer relations with India, Israel, and

iv

Foreword

Saudi Arabia. History teaches us, according to Blackwill, that "flawed individuals and policy processes sometimes produce successful results." Like Wagner's music, he argues, Trump's foreign policy is better than it sounds.

For some readers, I expect Blackwill's grades will be too low, while for others, his grades will not be low enough. I agree with Blackwill that the president has been right to challenge China on its actions in the trade realm, in what he has done to rally regional and international support against the Nicolas Maduro regime in Venezuela, and in cultivating closer ties with India. But I would give President Trump a lower grade on how he has handled Iran, North Korea, and Syria. In addition, it is hard to see what the Trump administration has received in exchange for its uncritical embrace of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman or for moving the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

But these and other differences I have or others will have with Ambassador Blackwill's assessments overlook the fundamental value of this rigorous study undertaken by an experienced scholarpractitioner. It is the sort of work that is all too rare in this politicized environment we live in and where 280 characters often substitute for in-depth analysis. There is much of value to learn in the pages to follow, and I urge readers to make their way through this paper and come to their own conclusions as to what grade the forty-fifth president deserves so far for his foreign policy.

Richard N. Haass President Council on Foreign Relations April 2019

Foreword

v

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

This Council Special Report greatly benefited from the dozens of specific suggestions and valuable improvements by Henry Kissinger, Graham Allison, Hal Brands, Frank Gavin, Philip Zelikow, and Robert Zoellick. I took most of their suggested fixes but, as they will see, not all. I am especially grateful to Dr. Kissinger for his friendship, inspiration, and guidance throughout virtually my entire adult life. I also thank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) President Richard N. Haass and Senior Vice President and Director of Studies James M. Lindsay for their review and comments. I appreciate the work of the CFR Publications team, Patricia Lee Dorff, Julie Hersh, Chloe Moffett, and Sumit Poudyal, for editorial contributions. My special thanks go to Theodore Rappleye, my brilliant and inexhaustible research associate, and to his successor, Daniel Clay. Without Ted's voluminous research, this report would still be an incomplete draft searching for citations.

The analysis and conclusions of the report are my responsibility alone.

Robert D. Blackwill

vi

Acknowledgments

What is new about the emerging world order is that, for the first time, the United States can neither withdraw from the world nor dominate it.

--Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy, 1994

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