Messaging Against Trump's Climate Record in 2020

[Pages:22]Messaging Against Trump's Climate Record in 2020

Findings Prepared by Global Strategy Group & Normington Petts for CAPAF & LCV

Methodology

Global Strategy Group conducted an online survey of 603 persuadable registered voters in the Rust Belt (Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) and the Sun Belt (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Texas*), with additional samples of 302 non-Republican Latinx voters and 300 non-Republican younger voters. This research was conducted between March 20th and 29th, 2020 and the samples have a margin of error of +/-4.0%, +/5.6%, and +/-5.7% respectively.

Persuadable are defined as anyone: ? Who is in categories 3-5 on the following scale AND ? NOT a strong Democrat or a strong Republican

1. Definitely vote for the Democrat, regardless of who the Democrats nominate 2. Probably vote for the Democrat, regardless of who the Democrats nominate 3. Undecided/Depends on candidate, but lean Democrat 4. Undecided/Depends on candidate, no lean 5. Undecided/Depends on candidate, but lean Trump 6. Probably vote for Trump, regardless of who the Democrats nominate 7. Definitely vote for Trump, regardless of who the Democrats nominate

*TX is only included in the Latinx and younger voter samples

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This research was funded by CAP Action Fund

Key Findings

The voters that are up for grabs in the presidential race are fundamentally Republican leaning, but they are also fundamentally pro-climate. Though they are split between approving and disapproving of Donald Trump, this group is fundamentally

Republican leaning, largely because Democrats are more solid in their decision to vote against Trump. While persuadable voters tend to approve of Trump's economic performance, they overwhelmingly disapprove the

job he is doing on climate change, and support taking strong action to combat climate change and moving to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050.

There is huge opportunity to move persuadable voters on the Congressional ballot using climate. While Republicans lead the generic ballot with our persuadable voters by 9 points, when that is reframed as a

choice between a Democrat who "supports taking strong government action to combat climate change" and a Republican who opposes such action, the generic ballot shifts to a 20-point Democratic lead ? a net 29-point shift.

We make real gains with persuadable voters. And we make significant motivation gains with Latinx and younger voters ? but we will need Biden to drive an affirmative message on climate to maximize gains. On metrics like 2020 vote, disapproval of Trump, and key traits like looking out for future generations and ignoring

experts, our messaging moves persuadable voters and, to a lesser extent, the non-Republican Latinx sample. We also boost the percent of non-Republican younger voters who start out with Biden and say they are extremely

motivated to vote by 12 points and boost motivation among Latinx voters who start with Biden by 9 points.

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Persuadable voters are fundamentally Republican-leaning, while the non-GOP Latinx and younger voters are Democratic-leaning by design

Democrat Persuadable 30

Latinx 80 Younger 81

Persuadable Latinx

Younger

Democrat 32 83 79

Persuadable Latinx

Younger

Clinton 22 65 51

Persuadable Latinx

Younger

Biden 30 76 75

Partisanship

Independent

29

Generic Vote for Congress

Undecided

27

2016 Presidential Vote Recall

Did not vote

18

Other candidate 24

19 32

2020 Presidential Vote

Undecided

31

Republican

41

16

4

11

8

NET Dem

-11 +76 +73

Republican

41

11

7

8

13

NET Dem

-9 +76 +66

Trump NET Clinton

35

-13

9

7

+58

9

13

+38

Trump NET Biden

39

-9

11

13

+63

11

14

+61

4

The CDC, public health experts, scientists, and NASA are the best-liked experts. Green New Deal not well-defined.

Favorability of People and Groups

NET FAVORABLE (OVERALL)

Favorable Scientists 85

Not sure

Unfavorable 78

Pers.

+77

Swing

+73

Latinx

+89

Younger

+87

The CDC 84

NASA 83

Public health experts 80

American military leaders 74

The Department of Defense 68

Workers in the oil, gas, and coal industries

66

The EPA 66

Oil, gas, and coal companies 35

The Green New Deal 21

16 53

6 10 +74

+78

+76

+59

10 7 +76

+71

+75

+74

9 11 +69

+70

+79

+79

9

17 +57

+47

+43

+28

17

15 +53

+49

+25

+29

18

16 +50

+42

+26

+35

14

20 +46

+45

+55

+72

49 -14

-18

-4

-35

26

-5

0

+11

+33

5

Majorities, especially of non-Republican Latinx and younger voters, support strong action on climate change and a shift to clean energy

How strongly do you support the US government taking strong action to combat climate change?

Strongly support (7)

Persuadable 20 Latinx 39

Younger 42

Somewhat support (5-6)

Neither (4)

47

Somewhat oppose (2-3)

20

Strongly oppose (1) Total

Support / Oppose

12 2 67 / 13

32

17

7

5 71 / 12

34

16

7

76 / 8

How strongly do you support a plan to move the US to a 100 percent clean energy economy by 2050?

Strongly support (7)

Persuadable 24 Latinx 49

Younger 47

Somewhat support (5-6)

Neither (4)

42

Somewhat oppose (2-3)

23 29 35

Strongly oppose (1)

92

Total

66 / 11

19

2 79 / 3

15

3 82 / 3

6

Large majorities of persuadable, Latinx, and younger voters feel climate action will help the national economy and personal finances

Which one comes closer to your own opinion, even if neither is exactly right?

If the US government takes strong action to combat climate change, it will ultimately be good for the economy.

Persuadable 72

Latinx 83

Younger 83

If the US government takes strong action to combat climate change, it will ultimately be bad for the economy.

28

17

17

Which one comes closer to your own opinion, even if neither is exactly right?

If the US government takes strong action to combat climate change, it will ultimately be good for the personal finances of families like mine.

Persuadable 67

If the US government takes strong action to combat climate change, it will ultimately be bad for the personal

finances of families like mine.

33

Latinx 84

16

Younger 80

20

7

Framing the generic ballot around climate action causes huge shift with persuadables, particularly center-right white women

If the election for Congress were held today between a Democratic candidate who supports taking strong government action to combat climate change and a Republican candidate who opposes taking strong government

action to combat climate change, for whom would you vote?

Democratic candidate Persuadable 46

Latinx 87 Younger 79

Undecided

28

Net Gen. Republican candidate V2

26 +20

7

6 +81

10

11 +68

Net Gen. V1 -9

+76

+66

Men 46 Women 47 Center-R white women 37

22 32

38

32 +14

-3

21 +26

-13

25 +12

-36

Persuadable sample

18-44 47 45-64 43

65+ 51

27 30

24

26 +21

-5

27 +16

-10

25 +26

-16

Rust Belt 46 Sun Belt 47

26 28

28 +18

-12

25 +22

-6

8

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