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Analyzing Critical International Security Challenges: A Series of Three Weekend WorkshopsSpring 2014PIA 2412-1150, 3 credits, Prof. Dennis M. GormleyRoom 3431 University of PittsburghGraduate School of Public and International AffairsOffice Hours: 1PM-6PM, Fridays before each Weekend Workshop, Room 3615; or by e-mail at dmgormley@; or Skype at dennisport66; or by telephone at (703) 472-1888 Course Overview and ObjectivesThis course consists of three 15-hour weekend workshops—meeting Friday 6-9PM, Saturday 9AM-5PM (1-hour lunch break), and Sunday 9AM-1PM—each of which explores a critically important international security topic in the news today. Using films, lectures, discussion and debate, and group simulations, these workshops will expose students to the key factors shaping each security challenge. The objective is to promote balanced and critical thinking in assessing threats and evaluating choices facing security and intelligence practitioners. In addition to a reading list of articles and monographs—all downloadable or available via the University’s digital library—and two required books, this syllabus also provides students with a bibliography of books, journal articles, and major monographs for those wishing to pursue more advanced study. Grades will be determined on the basis of classroom participation and a take-home essay due two weeks after each workshop. Course RequirementsThree 1,400-word essays (70%)Workshop participation in class and during simulations (30%)BooksDennis M. Gormley, Missile Contagion (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2010). See International Affairs Division Secretary, Diane Kline, beginning January 9, for your free copy, courtesy of the author. Dennis M. Gormley, Andrew S. Erickson, and Jing-Dong Yuan, A Low-Visibility Force Multiplier: Assessing China’s Cruise Missile Ambitions (Washington, D.C.: NDU Press, 2014). Publication is expected in January 2014. A link to an on-line copy of the book will be furnished, when available. Office Hours Students are encouraged to use my listed office hours and direct means of contact not only to follow up on course-related issues, but also to seek advice on internships or on long-term career planning. Plagiarism Plagiarism is “the unauthorized use or close imitation of the language and thoughts of another author and the representation of them as one's own original work.” If anyone has difficulty understanding the nature of plagiarism, please see me during scheduled office hours, or call or Skype me at the numbers listed earlier in this syllabus. Plagiarized material will receive a failing grade, while serious cases of plagiarism can result in a failing grade for the class. You should read GSPIA’s policy found in Appendix A of the online GSPIA Handbook of Academic Policies and Procedures. DisabilitiesIf you have a disability for which you may be requesting an accommodation, you are encouraged to contact Professor Gormley and Disability Resources and Services (DRS), 216 William Pitt Union, (412) 648-7890/(412) 383-7355 (TTY), as early as possible in the term. DRS will verify your disability and determine reasonable accommodations for this course. Workshop #1 February 21-23, 2014Nuclear Abolition: Real or Imagined?The stage may be set for a historic turning point in America’s reliance on nuclear weapons to meet its fundamental national security interests. Signs of a turning point commenced with the a highly influential op-ed in the January 4, 2007 Wall Street Journal by George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, where the quartet argued that America should not only reduce its nuclear reliance but also work toward the goal of a nuclear-free world. The election of Barrack Obama—an avowed supporter of reducing the U.S. nuclear weapons profile—only accelerated the momentum toward nuclear reductions. But how realistic are such objectives and what kinds of challenges face U.S. decision-makers, other countries possessing nuclear weapons, and allies of the United States whose security has been protected via a “nuclear umbrella”? This workshop will arm students with a sophisticated understanding of the central challenges—domestic and foreign—implicit in the quest for nuclear abolition, or even deep reductions in nuclear weapons. After first providing an overview of the costs and consequences of nuclear weapons since the 1940s, the workshop will turn to assessing factors that have reduced nuclear salience since the end of the Cold War—most notably, the rise of American conventional superiority. It will then turn to the challenge of convincing Russia and China, among others, that it makes sense to proceed toward a post-nuclear world that may be dominated militarily by the United States. We will open the workshop on Friday evening with a discussion of past nuclear weapons accidents as a prelude to viewing the 1964 film, Fail Safe, after which we will discuss the film’s continuing relevance in the context of today’s contemporary security setting. On Saturday morning, we will view a short documentary, The Red Button, about a 1983 near incident in which the Soviet Union came close to launching a massive nuclear attack based on false information. Required Readings for Workshop #1 Dennis M. Gormley, “Securing Nuclear Obsolescence,” Survival 48, no. 3 (Autumn 2006): 127-148, at . George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, “A World Free of Nuclear Weapons,” The Wall Street Journal, January 4, 2007, at . George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, “Toward a Nuclear-Free World,” The Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2008, at . Dennis M. Gormley, “Silent Retreat: The Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons,” The Nonproliferation Review 14, no. 2 (July 2007): 183-206. (Copy provided by instructor.) George Perkovich and James M. Acton, eds., Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: A Debate (Washington, D.C., Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2009), at . Read pp. 13-48 and 149-170. Kingston Reif and Tad Farrell, “Fact Sheet: 2010 Nuclear Posture Review,” at . Dennis M. Gormley, “Nuclear Disarmament and Russian Perceptions of US Conventional Superiority,” Security Challenges 6, no. 4 (Summer 2010): 83-101, at . Baker Spring, “Disarm Now, Ask Questions Later: Obama’s Nuclear Weapon Policy,” Backgrounder, The Heritage Foundation, no. 2826 (July 11, 2013): 1-10, at . Andrew Futter and Benjamin Zala, “Advanced US Conventional Weapons and Nuclear Disarmament: Why the Obama Plan Won’t Work,” Nonproliferation Review 20, no. 2 (March 2013): 107-122. (Copy provided by instructor.)Tom Nichols, “Time to Change America’s Atomic Arsenal,” The Diplomat, at . Recommended for Further Reference Catherine Kelleher and Judith Reppy, eds., Getting to Zero: The Path to Nuclear Disarmament (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2011). A comprehensive treatment of the serious challenges to achieving deep reductions and eventual elimination of nuclear weapons. Dennis M. Gormley, The Path to Deep Nuclear Reductions: Dealing with American Conventional Superiority, Ifri Paper No. 29 (Paris: French Institute of International Relations, 2009), at downloads/pp29gormley1.pdf. The first analysis in the literature raising the question of how to engage Russia in further reductions, notwithstanding clear American conventional superiority.Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 3rd. ed. (Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave MacMillan, 2003). The best overall historical treatment of nuclear strategy now its it third edition. Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed (New York: W.W. Norton, 2003). The classic treatment of whether or not the spread of nuclear weapons is good or bad.Fred Kaplan, The Wizards of Armageddon (New York: Simon & Shuster, 1983). The best treatment of the founding fathers of nuclear strategy. Philip Green, Deadly Logic: The Theory of Nuclear Deterrence (Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press, 1966). A devastating attack on nuclear deterrence theory. Jonathan Stevenson, Thinking Beyond the Unthinkable: Harnessing Doom from the Cold War to the Age of Terror (New York: Viking, 2008). Particularly good on RAND’s early contributions to strategic nuclear doctrine and operations. Michael Quinlan, Thinking About Nuclear Weapons: Principles, Problems, Prospects (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009). The logic of nuclear deterrence today by Britain’s top former civil servant. Jean du Preez, ed., Nuclear Challenges and Policy Options for the Next U.S. Administration, Occasional Paper No. 14 (Monterey, CA: James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 2008), at . Nicholas Thompson, The Hawk and the Dove: Paul Nitze, George Kennan, and the History of the Cold War (New York: Henry Holt, 2009). A fast though extremely worthwhile read on cold-war era nuclear debates. Workshop #2 March 21-23, 2014Appraising Missile Defense: Invaluable Asset or Financial Sinkhole? No security issue has so preoccupied defense, intelligence, and policy analysts than the value of missile defense. The prospect of having to face an Iran possessing nuclear-armed missiles is only the latest manifestation of this security dilemma. Since the end of World War II, the United States has invested over $1 trillion on programs for strategic air and missile defense, anti-satellite and antisubmarine warfare, and civil defense in order to cope with the nuclear threat. From the start, the most controversial and technically demanding component of such efforts to reduce American vulnerability has been defending against ballistic missiles. Although the criteria for measuring the value of missile defense have remained simple—Does it work? Is it cost effective? And how does it fit into the priorities of the United States? Proponents and critics remain far apart in their views about the value of such systems. This workshop is designed to arm students interested in careers in the intelligence, policy, or consulting with the necessary knowledge to critically evaluate questions central to missile defense. The workshop will first introduce students to basic technical information on offensive missile systems capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction and defensive missile systems designed to defeat these missiles. Current and prospective trends in missile proliferation will be examined in the Middle East, South Asia, and Northeast Asia; and based on these trends, students will learn to assess the key variables shaping the effectiveness of missile defenses against both regional and homeland threats. And because missile nonproliferation and export control policies also figure into the missile defense equation, the workshop will also introduce students to these non-military mechanisms as a complementary—or alternative—means of missile defense.We will begin this workshop with the filming of two 60-minute documentaries dealing with the missile defense debate in the United States. The first, produced by the Public Broadcasting System’s Frontline public affairs series, is called Missile Wars, which was released on the heels of the Bush administration’s June 2002 withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The second, produced by the Heritage Foundation in 2009, is titled 33 Minutes: Protecting America in the New Missile Age. This documentary strongly endorses the need for an even more aggressive pursuit of global missile defenses along the lines of President Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative program (1983-92). Viewed together, these documentaries offer dramatically different views—and much fuel for debate—on the pros and cons of missile defense.Required Readings for Workshop #2 Dennis M. Gormley, Missile Contagion: Cruise Missile Proliferation and the Threat to International Security (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 2010). Ivo Daalder, James Goldgeier, and James Lindsay, “Deploying NMD: Not Whether, But When,” Survival 42, no. 1 (Spring 2000): 6-28. Ivo Daalder et al., “A Consensus on Missile Defence?” Survival 43, no. 3 (Autumn 2001): 61-94. Steven Miller, “The Flawed Case of Missile Defence,” Survival 43, no. 3 (Autumn 2001): 95-109.Mark Fitzpatrick, “A Prudent Decision on Missile Defence,” Survival 51, no. 6 (December 2009-January 2010): 5-12. Marcel Dickow, Oliver Meier, Max Mutschler, and Michael Paul, “The Care for Rethinking NATO Missile Defense Plans,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November 26, 2013, at . Recommended for Further ReferenceFrances M. Lussier, et al., Army Air and Missile Defense: Future Challenges (Santa Monica: The RAND Corp., 2002). A still useful treatment of the steps needed by the US Army to protect against cruise and ballistic missiles. Donald Baucom, The Origins of SDI, 1944-1983 (Modern War Studies) (Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas, 1992). Able treatment of the origins of Ronald Reagan’s dream. Gregory Canavan, Missile Defense for the 21st Century (Washington, D.C.: The Heritage Foundation, 2003). A pro-missile defense tract by a Los Alamos nuclear weapons lab physicist.Richard Butler, Fatal Choice: Nuclear Weapons and the Illusion of Missile Defense (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2001). The title suggests the bent of this treatment.Richard L. Garwin, “Holes in the Missile Shield,” Scientific American, October 25, 2004. Argues that current mid-course missile defenses are susceptible to simple countermeasures. Fred Hoffman, Albert Wohlstetter, and David S. Yost, eds., Swords and Shields: NATO, the USSR, and New Choices for Long-Range Offense and Defense (Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1987). How future offensive and defensive forces interact. James J. Wirtz and Jeffrey A. Larsen, eds., Rockets’ Red Glare: Missile Defenses and the Future of World Politics (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2001). Collected essays covering the ABM treaty, missile defenses, and the future of arms control just before the US withdrawal from the ABM treaty. Bradley Graham, Hit to Kill: The New Battle Over Shielding America from Missile Attack (New York: Public Affairs, 2001). Useful background on missile defense as it stood at he beginning of the Bush administration by a Washington Post reporter.K. Scott McMahon, Pursuit of the Shield: The US Quest for Limited Ballistic Missile Defense (Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 1997. By a former Pacific-Sierra Research colleague of mine who now works at the RAND Corporation. Even-handed, detailed treatment of the benefits of limited ballistic missile defenses. Neil Sheehan, A Fiery Peace in a Cold War: Bernard Schriever and the Ultimate Weapon (New York: Random House, 2009). A brilliant portrayal of the difficult development (technically, organizationally, and politically) of the first U.S. nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles.Anthony H. Cordesman, Strategic Threats and National Missile Defenses: Defending the U.S. Homeland (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2002). The standard comprehensive treatment of the subject by Cordesman.Victor Utgoff, “Proliferation, Missile Defence and American Ambitions,” Survival 44, no. 2 (Summer 2002): 85-102.Dennis M. Gormley, “Enriching Expectations: 11 September’s Lessons for Missile Defence,” Survival 44, no. 2 (Summer 2002): 19-35.Walter B. Slocombe, “Europe, Russia, and Missile Defence,” Survival 50, no. 2 (April-May 2008): 19-24. Oliver Thranert, “NATO, Missile Defence and Extended Deterrence,” Survival 51, no. 6 (December 2009-January 2010): 63-76. Workshop #3 April 11-13, 2013Analyzing China’s Military Ambitions: Judging Capabilities and IntentionsThe signs of China’s rise as an economic power are palpable: measured in total purchasing power, China’s economy is expected to outpace the U.S. economy before 2030. In 2004, the U.S. Department of Defense calculated that Chinese military technology remained 15 to 20 years behind the United States, but recent estimates suggest that by 2012-2015 the U.S. military will no longer maintain its current superiority in the Western Pacific, making defense of Taiwan problematic. Not only is there growing concern about China’s acquisition of naval surface combatants and advanced ballistic and cruise missiles, but analysts also worry about China’s nuclear force modernization programs. Beijing’s secrecy with regard to defense budgets, weapon system procurement, and the quality and frequency of military training makes assessing China’s military modernization open to broad speculation rather than disciplined and balanced analysis. This workshop will teach students how to critically evaluate sources of information on China’s military ambitions set in the context of the full range of military capabilities that China requires to fulfill its ambitions. Students pursuing an Asian Studies certificate are eligible to receive one credit toward their certificate by successfully completing this workshop. We will view on Friday evening two 60-minute segments from a PBS documentary China From the Inside. The first, titled Power and the People, deals with how the Communist party exerts control over 1.3 billion Chinese and includes interviews with specialists and villagers about problems the country faces in the future. The second segment, called Freedom and Justice, explores the limits of freedom in China and threats to stability. Required Readings for Workshop #3: General Political, Economic, and Military ContextEric X. Li, “The Life of the Party: The Post-Democratic Future Begins in China,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2013.Yasheng Huang, “Democratize or Die: Why China’s Communists Face Reform or Revolution,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2013. George J. Gilboy, “The Myth Behind China’s Miracle,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2004.Aaron L. Friedberg, “The Future of U.S.-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable?” International Security, Fall 2005.Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell, “How China Sees America,” Foreign Affairs, September /October 2012.Wang Jisi, “China’s Search for a Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2011. Charles Glaser, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War?” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2011. Military IssuesRobert S. Ross, “The Problem with the Pivot,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2012. James Dobbins, “War with China,” Survival 54, no. 4 (August-September 2012): 7-24. Roger Cliff et al., Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implications for the United States (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2007), 7-page summary, xiii-xix, . Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, 2013 (Washington, D.C.: Department of Defense, 2013), . Read executive summary, chapters 1, 5, and “Special Topic: China’s Evolving Maritime Strategy,” pp. 57-64. Mark Stokes, “China’s Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability: The Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Challenge to U.S. Maritime Operations in the Western Pacific and Beyond,” Project 2049 Institute, September 14, 2009, . Dennis M. Gormley, “The Growing Utility of Ballistic Missiles,” in Missile Contagion, pp. 19-26.David Axe, “China’s Overhyped Sub Threat,” The Diplomat, October 20, 2011, at ’s-overhyped-submarine-threat/2/?all=true. Michael Pillsbury, “China and Taiwan – The American Debate,” The RUSI Journal, April 2009, . David A. Shlapak et. al., A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2009), 7-page summary, . Bill Owens, “America Must Start Treating China as a Friend,” Financial Times, November 17, 2009, at . Keith Crane et al., Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2005, 17 page executive summary, . Dennis M. Gormley, Andrew S. Erickson, and Jing-Dong Yuan, A Low-Visibility Force Multiplier: Assessing China’s Cruise Missile Ambitions (Washington, D.C.: NDU Press, 2014). Read at least the following: Executive Summary, Introduction and Overview, and chapters 2-8. Recommended for Further ReferenceDavid W. Kearn, Jr., Facing the Missile Challenge: U.S. Strategy and the Future of the INF Treaty (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corp., 2012), at . A systematic appraisal of the pros and cons of abrogating the 1987 U.S.-Russian Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty in order for the U.S. to deal more effectively with projecting power in East Asia. Barry Naughton, The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2007). A balanced treatment of all aspects of the Chinese economy.Justin Yifu Lin, Economic Development and Transition: Thought, Strategy, and Viability (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2009). By a leading Chinese economist and now chief economist of the World Bank. Elizabeth C. Economy, “The Great Leap Backward?” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2007. Deals with key challenges to Chinese economic sustainability.Loren Brandt and Thomas G. Rawski, eds., China’s Great Economic Transformation (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2008). An edited collection of essays covering the full gamut of economic challenges facing China.John Wilson Lewis and Xue Litai, Imagined Enemies: China Prepares for Uncertain War (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2006). A systematic treatment of Beijing’s preoccupation with and preparedness for dealing with Taiwanese separatism and a possible war with Taiwan.Evan S. Medeiros, Reluctant Restraint: The Evolution of China’s Nonproliferation Policies and Practices, 1980-2004 (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2007). The best treatment available on changes in Chinese behavior in regard to nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery.Jeffrey Lewis, The Minimum Means of Reprisal: China’s Search for Security in the Nuclear Age (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2007). Delves into the rationale for China’s comparatively small strategic nuclear arsenal.Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and Birth of a New Global Order (New York: Penguin Press, 2009). A book of bold and provocative predictions about China’s economic rise and the demise of Western institutions.Susan L. Shirk, China: Fragile Superpower (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008). By a China hand and former government official responsible for Chinese affairs in the State Department, the book delves into the deep insecurities of China’s current leadership. ................
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