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Dean Croushore

Associate Professor of Economics and Rigsby Fellow

Phone: (804) 287-1961

e-mail: dcrousho@richmond.edu

Link to c.v. {link to document: Croushore CV0412.pdf}

Concurrent positions:

Visiting scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Editorial positions:

Associate editor, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking

Associate editor, International Journal of Forecasting

Current Working Papers:

“Evaluating Inflation Forecasts,” Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Working Paper 98-14, June 1998. Under revision using real-time data. (pdf, 258K) {link to document: wp98-14.pdf}

“Data Revisions and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks,” with Charles Evans (Chicago Fed). Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Working Paper No. 03-1, January 2003. Under submission at Journal of Monetary Economics. (pdf, 379KB) {link to document: dc0212c.pdf}

“Forecasting Coin Demand,” with Tom Stark, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Working Paper No. 02-15/R, March 2003. Under submission at Journal of Forecasting.

(pdf, 729KB) {link to: wp02_15R.pdf}

“Do Consumer Confidence Indexes Help Forecast Consumer Spending in Real Time?” Under revision at North American Journal of Economics and Finance. (pdf, 88KB) {link to: Croushore_NAJEF_05Jan.pdf}

“Forecasting with Real-Time Data.” Draft of August 2004 under submission (invited paper) to Handbook of Economic Forecasting (Elsevier). (pdf, 102KB) {link to: HEF Croushore 0408.pdf}

Data:

Real Time Data Set for Macroeconomists (links off-site to Philadelphia Fed)

{link to: }

I created this data set while working at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

My research assistants at the University of Richmond are contributing new series, as are research assistants at the Philadelphia Fed.

The data set is maintained and updated at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Here is a bibliography {link to: real time literature.pdf} of papers that I know of that use real-time data. Send an email {mailto:drousho@richmond.edu} to me if you know of a paper that should be added to the list.

Survey of Professional Forecasters (links off-site to Philadelphia Fed)

{link to: }

I helped create this survey by taking over the old ASA/NBER survey while working at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The survey is still run by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Here is a bibliography {link to: SPF_Bibliography_Jan2005.pdf} of papers that I know of that use the SPF data. Send an email {mailto:drousho@richmond.edu} to me if you know of a paper that should be added to the list.

Greenbook Data Set (links off-site to Philadelphia Fed)

{link to: }

I created this data set while working at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, for my paper “A Measure of Federal Reserve Credibility”.

The data set is maintained and updated at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

There is another data set (links off-site to Philadelphia Fed)

{link to: }, created from scanned sheets from the Greenbook, created by the Board of Governors and posted on the Philadelphia Fed’s web site, which contains many more series. But its quality is lower—there are many errors that have not been corrected.

Livingston Survey (links off-site to Philadelphia Fed)

{link to: }

I was responsible for this survey for several years while working at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The Survey of Professional Forecasters is of higher quality, but the Livingston Survey was started much earlier.

The survey is still run by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Here is a bibliography {link to: Livingston research.pdf} of papers that I know of that use the Livingston data. Send an email {mailto:drousho@richmond.edu} to me if you know of a paper that should be added to the list.

Textbook Work:

Money and Banking: Policy Connections. Textbook for course in Money and Banking, being published by Houghton Mifflin. Anticipated publication date 2005.

The publishers’ web site will soon contain a variety of supplemental material for teachers and students. I will provide a link to the publishers’ site once it is operational.

Macroeconomics. Textbook for course in Intermediate Macroeconomics, published by Addison Wesley. Co-author with Andrew B. Abel and Ben S. Bernanke, 5th edition, 2004. Wrote instructor’s manual, test bank, and study guide for 4th edition, 2000, and 5th edition, 2004. Also wrote instructor’s manual and test bank for 3rd and 2nd editions, study guide for 3rd edition, and part of instructor’s manual for 1st edition.

Student resources: click here to link to publisher’s web site

{link to: }

My work on this site includes the animated graphs, worked questions, quiz, and related links. Please send an email {mailto:drousho@richmond.edu} to me if you find a problem with any of these items or have a suggestion for improvement.

Published Articles in Economics Journals:

“A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?” with Tom Stark (Philadelphia Fed). Review of Economics and Statistics 85 (August 2003), pp. 605–617.

“Expectations and the Effects of Monetary Policy,” with Laurence Ball (Johns Hopkins). Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 35 (August 2003), pp. 473–484.

“Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists” with Tom Stark (Philadelphia Fed), Journal of Macroeconomics 24 (December 2002), pp. 507(31. Also, a “Reply” to formal comments, pp. 563(7.

“Comments on: The State of Macroeconomic Forecasting.” Journal of Macroeconomics 24 (December 2002), pp. 483(9.

“A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists,” with Tom Stark (Philadelphia Fed), Journal of Econometrics 105 (November 2001), pp. 111-130.

“Evaluating McCallum’s Rule When Monetary Policy Matters,” with Tom Stark, Journal of Macroeconomics 20 (Summer 1998), pp. 451-85.

“Ricardian Equivalence with Wage-Rate Uncertainty,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 28 (August 1996), pp. 279-93.

“The Marginal Cost of Funds with Nonseparable Public Spending,” with Shaghil Ahmed, Public Finance Quarterly 24 (April 1996), pp. 216-36.

“The Importance of the Tax System for Determining the Marginal Cost of Funds,” with Shaghil Ahmed, Public Finance / Finances Publiques 50 (2/1995), pp. 173-81.

“A Measure of Federal Reserve Credibility,” with Ronald S. Koot, Journal of Policy Modeling 16 (April 1994), pp. 215-31.

“Money in the Utility Function: Functional Equivalence to a Shopping-Time Model,” Journal of Macroeconomics 15 (Winter 1993), pp. 175-82.

“Economic Stability and the Government Deficit,” with Ronald S. Koot and David A. Walker, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics 12 (Spring 1990), pp. 390-403.

“The Effect of Government Deficits on Consumption and Interest Rates: A Two-Equation Approach,” Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics 28 (Spring 1989), pp. 85-129.

“Government Financial Policy and Capital,” Southern Economic Journal 54 (October 1987), pp. 435-48.

“The Neutrality of Optimal Government Financial Policy: Supplying the Intergenerational Free Lunch,” Eastern Economic Journal 13 (April-June 1987), pp. 123-36.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review Articles:

“U.S. Coins: Forecasting Change,” Second Quarter 2003. (pdf, 364KB) {link to: brq203dc.pdf}

“How Do Forecasts Respond to Changes in Monetary Policy?” with Laurence Ball, Fourth Quarter 2001. (pdf, 530KB) {link to: brq401dc.pdf}

“A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Data Bank: A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists,” September/October 2000. (pdf, 256 KB) {link to: brso00dc.pdf}

“How Useful Are Forecasts of Corporate Profits?” September/October 1999. (pdf, 252KB) {link to: brso99dc.pdf}

“Low Inflation: The Surprise of the 1990s,” July/August 1998. (pdf, 132KB) {link to: brja98dc.pdf}

“The Livingston Survey: Still Useful After All These Years,” March/April 1997. (pdf, 208KB) {link to: brma97dc.pdf}

“Inflation Forecasts: How Good Are They?” May/June 1996.

“Evaluating McCallum's Rule for Monetary Policy,” with Tom Stark, Jan./Feb. 1995.

“Introducing: The Survey of Professional Forecasters,” November/December 1993.

“What Are the Costs of Disinflation?” May/June 1992.

“How Big is Your Share of Government Debt?” November/December 1990.

Research Interests and Work in Progress:

Real-time Data

Forecasting

Monetary Policy

“Credibility and Disinflation,” with Laurence Ball.

“Forecasting Government Deficits,” with Bob Hunt.

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