2018 Crop Outlook

[Pages:26]2018 Crop Outlook

Chris Hurt, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics Michael Langemeier, Assoc. Director, Center for Commercial Agriculture James Mintert, Director, Center for Commercial Agriculture

? 2018 Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture

July 3, 2018

Stocks Situation

Stocks June 1

Pre-Report Expectation

Corn: Slight Bearish

Soybeans Neutral

Wheat: Neutral

------------- Million Bushels ------------------

5,306

5,263

1,222

1,218

1,100

1,098

? 2018 Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture

Difference

+43 +4 +2

July 3, 2018

Acreage Situation

June Acres

Pre-Report Expectation

Difference

Corn: Bearish

Soybeans Neutral

Wheat: Bearish

Spring Wheat Bearish

---------------------------------- Million Acres ------------------------------------------

89.1

88.4

+.760

89.6

89.8

-.230

47.8

47.1

+.700

13.2

12.4

+.790

? 2018 Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture

July 3, 2018

Corn, Soybean, Wheat Planted Acres

95 Corn

-3%

Beans

+7%

85Wheat -9%

75

97.2 74

89.6 89.1

Million Acres

65

Corn

55

Soybeans

56

48

Wheat

45 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

? 2018 Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture

July 3, 2018

U.S. Planted Acres: 17 Crops + CRP + Hay Crops

370367

364

365

360

359358361357361359356

359 356

+3 Since Last year Since March `18

Corn +1.1 Beans +.6 Wheat +.5

355

352352

352

355 351351

350

347

y = -918.1x + 364792

345

345

345

R? = 0.6749

342342342

340

Millions

335

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

? 2018 Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture

July 3, 2018

2018 Trend

Corn U.S. 174.0

Corn Soybeans Indiana U.S.

174.0 48.5

Soybeans Indiana 53.5

Weekly Crop Ratings Yield Estimates (Bu./Acre)

6/3/18 178.9

181.5

6/10/18 179.0

182.2

49.9

6/17/18 179.6

184.0

49.8

56.0

6/24/18 178.6

184.3

49.9

55.8

? 2018 Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture

July 3, 2018

Temperature

July/Aug/September

Precipitation

? 2018 Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture

July 3, 2018

U.S. Ending Stocks to Use: Corn & Soybeans

50%

Wheat

40%

Corn Soybeans

30%

10.8% to

20%

14.2% 13.2%

10%

9.2%

0%

12.0%

8.7% to 10.8%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Year

? 2018 Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture

July 3, 2018

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