Asset Class Performance Last 3 Months, YTD 2018, and This ...

The Energizer Market

Another week, another gain for stocks, as the S&P 500 ticked higher by more than 1.5%. The Techheavy Nasdaq 100 led the major indices with a rally of 2%+, while small-caps were flat to down. Along with small-cap underperformance, the Transports also underperformed this week. These two indices are often thought of as leading indicators for the broad market, but in recent years periods of underperformance for them has not put a damper on gains for large caps at all.

Consumer Discretionary and Health Care were the two sectors that took the lead this week, continuing a pattern of rotation into and out of various sectors that has been going on for the last 12 months. Brazil posted by far the biggest gains internationally, while natural gas and oil both saw price spikes. Germany and Canada were the weakest countries, but even they managed to post gains. In fixed income, longer duration ETFs posted small gains, while near-term ones were down minimally.

Asset Class Performance Last 3 Months, YTD 2018, and This Week - Total Return (%)

US Related ETF Description SPY S&P 500 DIA Dow 30 QQQ Nasdaq 100 IJH S&P Midcap 400 IJR S&P Smallcap 600 IWB Russell 1000 IWM Russell 2000 IWV Russell 3000

Last 3

This Week YTD 2018 Months

1.60

6.76 12.02

1.59

7.06 13.78

2.04

8.97 15.73

0.36

4.52 8.99

-0.07

4.15 7.35

1.52

6.58 11.77

0.23

4.27 7.27

1.43

6.39 11.45

IVW S&P 500 Growth IJK Midcap 400 Growth IJT Smallcap 600 Growth IVE S&P 500 Value IJJ Midcap 400 Value IJS Smallcap 600 Value DVY DJ Dividend RSP S&P 500 Equalweight

1.83 0.47 0.31 1.45 0.19 -0.45 1.08 1.36

8.01 13.43 5.93 10.09 4.99 8.25 5.52 10.49 2.98 7.60 3.26 6.43 3.12 7.76 5.78 11.00

FXB British Pound FXE Euro FXY Yen

2.31

5.06 7.79

1.67

3.51 6.51

2.22

4.02 5.10

XLY Cons Disc XLP Cons Stap XLE Energy XLF Financials XLV Health Care XLI Industrials XLB Materials XLK Technology IYZ Telecom XLU Utilities

2.68

9.87 19.65

0.57

2.58 9.76

1.47

7.25 16.06

1.74

7.68 12.66

2.66

9.81 10.94

0.60

5.95 11.50

1.02

5.61 8.09

1.29

7.39 13.18

1.37

0.65 -1.50

1.32

-3.85 -6.56

Global ETF Description EWA Australia EWZ Brazil EWC Canada ASHR China EWQ France EWG Germany EWH Hong Kong PIN India EWI Italy EWJ Japan EWW Mexico EWP Spain RSX Russia EWU UK

EFA EAFE EEM Emerging Mkts IOO Global 100 EEB BRIC

DBC Commodities USO Oil UNG Nat. Gas GLD Gold SLV Silver

SHY 1-3 Yr Treasuries IEF 7-10 Yr Treasuries TLT 20+ Yr Treasuries AGG Aggregate Bond BND Total Bond Market TIP T.I.P.S.

Last 3

This Week YTD 2018 Months

1.82

3.97 8.78

6.05

16.59 17.31

0.63

2.33 7.22

2.99

12.05 15.09

1.39

7.62 8.12

0.52

7.28 8.64

1.38

5.68 11.24

1.52

5.25 9.39

1.84

12.75 11.50

1.10

7.68 12.04

2.84

9.49 8.55

2.64

10.31 11.07

1.57

11.57 13.36

1.29

5.44 11.06

1.27

6.77 9.92

2.89

10.14 15.85

1.44

6.41 10.68

3.76

11.93 15.23

2.13

3.79 8.77

3.93

10.07 25.07

8.17

15.31 7.39

1.56

3.83 6.70

2.43

2.81 3.72

-0.08 -0.07 0.24 0.13 0.10 0.07

-0.25 -1.76 -2.77 -0.92 -1.00 -0.70

-0.43 -1.25 1.38 -0.17 -0.18 0.94



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There are now just three days left in the month of January, and it's turning out to be the best start to a year since 1987.

? Below we highlight the best Januarys on record for the S&P 500 (all January gains of 5%+).

? Following these strong starts to the year, the S&P 500 has done well in February, averaging a gain of 1.10% with positive returns 68% of the time.

? For all other Februarys since 1928, the S&P has averaged a drop of 0.31%, so gains typically beget gains.

? For the remainder of the year, when January has been up 5%+, the S&P has been up over the next 11 months 13 out of 19 times. But 4 of the 6 eleven-month periods that saw declines happened from 1929-1934. The last 15 times the index has been up 5%+ in January, it has rallied for the remainder of the year 13 times, and often times it has rallied in a big way.

? Note, however, that the years that saw declines the rest of the way, the declines were big.

S&P 500 Best Januarys on Record

Year January % Chg Feb. % Chg Rest of Year % Chg

Jan-29

5.71

-0.58

-16.67

Jan-30

6.25

2.15

-32.69

Jan-31

5.54

11.37

-49.85

Jan-34 12.04

-3.67

-14.95

Jan-36

6.55

2.03

20.06

Jan-43

6.86

5.08

11.78

Jan-46

6.97

-6.95

-17.61

Jan-51

6.02

0.65

9.74

Jan-54

5.12

0.27

37.96

Jan-61

6.32

2.69

15.81

Jan-67

7.82

0.20

11.38

Jan-75 12.28

5.99

17.16

Jan-76 11.83

-1.14

6.54

Jan-80

5.76

-0.44

18.92

Jan-85

7.41

0.86

17.62

Jan-87 13.18

3.69

-9.85

Jan-89

7.11

-2.89

18.80

Jan-97

6.13

0.59

23.44

Jan-13

5.04

1.11

23.38

Jan-18

7.30

?

?

Average 1.10

4.79

Median 0.65

11.78

% Positive 68.4%

68.4%

Avg. All Other Years -0.31

6.79

Med. All Other Years -0.02

8.02



The Bespoke Report 1/26/18

For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward or Redistribute

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? The S&P 500 has now seen 14 record closing highs this month, which is another amazing stat. There have only been two months in the index's history that have seen more all-time closing highs, and they came in 1955 and 1928. With three trading days left, we could certainly break the record. The S&P 500 will just need to close higher on all three days to start next week.

? In the three months following the prior months that have seen the most record closing highs, the S&P 500 has been higher five of six times. The only time the index was down over the next 3 months was back in November 1961 when the S&P fell 1.9% through February 1962.

Number of Record Closes

12+ Record Closing S&P 500 Highs in a Single Month

18

16

16

15

14

14

13

13

12

12

12

10

8

6

4

2

0 6/1955

11/1928

1/2018

11/1961

2/1998

11/2014

5/1995

7 6.4 S&P 500 Performance Next Three Months (%)

6

5.4

5 4.0

4

3

2

1.8

1

0

-1

-2

-3 6/1955

11/1928

1/2018

-1.9 11/1961

2/1998

11/2014

5.3 5/1995

Percent Change (%)



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? For market bears that watched in disbelief last year as the major indices ticked higher and higher, they must be completely beside themselves this year. Either that or they've given up and finally decided to jump back in.

? Below is an updated look at our tables highlighting the length of time it has been without a meaningful pullback for the market.

? If you've been "waiting for a pullback to put money to work" as we often hear from people, you've now been waiting quite a long time, and you've missed out on significant gains as well.

? It has now been 578 days since the last 5% pullback and 448 days since the last 3% pullback.

S&P 500 Longest 20% Rallies (Bull Markets)

Start

End

Start Price End Price % Change Days

12/4/1987 3/24/2000 223.92 1527.46 582.15% 4,494

3/9/2009 1/26/2018 676.53 2853.00 321.71% 3,245

6/13/1949 8/2/1956

13.55

49.74 267.08% 2,607

10/3/1974 11/28/1980 62.28 140.52 125.63% 2,248

7/23/2002 10/9/2007 797.70 1565.15 96.21% 1,904

8/12/1982 8/25/1987 102.42 336.77 228.81% 1,839

10/22/1957 12/12/1961 38.98

72.64 86.35% 1,512

4/28/1942 5/29/1946 7.47

19.25 157.70% 1,492

6/26/1962 2/9/1966

52.32

94.06 79.78% 1,324

5/26/1970 1/11/1973 69.29 120.24 73.53% 961

Longest 10%+ Rallies w/o 10%+ Correction

Start

End

10/11/1990 10/7/1997

3/11/2003 10/9/2007

10/3/2011 5/21/2015

10/23/1962 2/9/1966

7/24/1984 8/25/1987

7/17/1950 1/5/1953

11/29/1943 2/5/1946

9/14/1953 9/23/1955

2/11/2016 1/26/2018

12/4/1987 10/9/1989

Start Price End Price % Change Days

295.46 983.12 232.74% 2,553

800.73 1565.15 95.47% 1,673

1099.23 2130.82 93.85% 1,326

53.49

94.06 75.85% 1,205

147.82 336.77 127.82% 1,127

16.68

26.66 59.83% 903

10.99

18.70 70.15% 799

22.71

45.63 100.92% 739

1829.08 2853.00 55.98% 715

223.92 359.80 60.68% 675

Longest 5%+ Rallies w/o 5%+ Correction

Start

End

Start Price End Price % Change Days

12/18/1957 8/3/1959

39.38

60.71 54.16% 593

6/27/2016 1/26/2018 2000.54 2853.00 42.61% 578

11/22/1963 5/13/1965 69.61

90.27 29.68% 538

12/8/1994 5/24/1996 445.45 678.51 52.32% 533

10/9/1992 2/2/1994 402.66 482.00 19.70% 481

9/14/1953 1/3/1955

22.71

36.75 61.82% 476

10/25/1960 12/12/1961 52.30

72.64 38.89% 413

10/23/1962 10/28/1963 53.49

74.48 39.24% 370

6/13/1949 6/12/1950 13.55

19.40 43.17% 364

4/28/1942 4/6/1943

7.47

11.76 57.43% 343

Longest 3%+ Rallies w/o 3%+ Correction

Start

End

Start Price End Price % Change Days

11/4/2016 1/26/2018 2085.18 2853.00 36.82% 448

12/8/1994 12/13/1995 445.45 621.69 39.56% 370

4/26/1993 2/2/1994 433.54 482.00 11.18% 282

2/25/1958 11/17/1958 40.61

53.24 31.10% 265

9/21/1953 5/28/1954 22.88

29.19 27.58% 249

6/28/1965 2/9/1966

81.60

94.06 15.27% 226

7/17/2006 2/20/2007 1234.49 1459.68 18.24% 218

11/15/1949 6/12/1950 15.75

19.40 23.17% 209

10/25/1960 4/17/1961 52.30

66.68 27.50% 174

11/22/1963 5/12/1964 69.61

81.16 16.59% 172



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? Forget 3% pullbacks, we haven't even seen a 1% daily drop for the S&P 500 in 111 trading days at this point.

? And remarkably, it has now been 99 trading days since the S&P even fell more than 0.60%. As shown in the bottom chart below, that's easily a record streak for the S&P.

S&P 500 Streaks of Trading Days Without One-Day 1%+ Decline

200

End Date Streak

180

6/7/1954

142

7/26/1957 115

160

5/13/1958 102

140

4/21/1961 123

120

11/20/1963 184

100

6/3/1964

131

80

2/28/1966 154

10/31/1967 104

60

6/12/1985 112

40

5/17/1995 110

20

12/15/1995 105

0

3/20/2017 109

1/23/2018 111

Jan-45 Jan-49 Jan-53 Jan-57 Jan-61 Jan-65 Jan-69 Jan-73 Jan-77 Jan-81 Jan-85 Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09 Jan-13 Jan-17

S&P 500 Streaks Without One-Day 0.60%+ Decline

120

100

99 Trading Days

80

60

40

20

0

Jan-45 Jan-49 Jan-53 Jan-57 Jan-61 Jan-65 Jan-69 Jan-73 Jan-77 Jan-81 Jan-85 Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09 Jan-13 Jan-17



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For Personal Use Only--Do Not Forward or Redistribute

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