Presseinformation - AGRITECHNICA



4014470-29146601803401854200KontaktTelefon E-MailDatum00KontaktTelefon E-MailDatum Press Release-971551785620Christoph G?tz +49 69 6603-1891christoph.goetz@ 11.09.2019r 201500Christoph G?tz +49 69 6603-1891christoph.goetz@ 11.09.2019r 2015VDMA sees slight slowdown in global agricultural machinery sectorGrowth pause after growth marathonSales from German production expected to fall 2019 by 3 percentSpecial effects decouple manufacturer sales from end-customer businessIndustry relies on climate-friendly technologies for agribusinessFrankfurt, 11 September 2019 – The VDMA expects a slight slowdown in the agricultural machinery sector in 2019. "While global production is stagnating, we expect moderate declines in production sales of around 3 percent in Germany. After a growth marathon, the agricultural machinery industry is experiencing a pause in growth that is already noticeable in incoming orders and sales," says VDMA Managing Director Dr Bernd Scherer. Second highest turnover ever in sightFollowing the record growth of previous years, the VDMA is forecasting a sales volume from German production of 8.4 billion euros for the current fiscal year. "We currently see an economic slowdown, but no end to the world. After all, we will end the year with the second-highest sales in the industry of all time," explains Scherer. The VDMA business climate index for the agricultural machinery industry clearly shows that top managers in the sector are currently looking more cautiously to the future than just a few months ago. Cyclically recurring saturation effects are regarded as a characteristic feature of the industry, but there is currently no sign of a significant drop in sentiment in industry and agriculture.Good sales to retailers, high inventories"We come from a very high level. In 2017 and 2018, we reached two all-time highs in a row after a previous downturn – with solid growth rates of 10 percent each," says Scherer. However, last year's high was primarily due to good sales to the contract trade. Final sales, on the other hand, were weaker, which led to high stocks in the retail sector. In the meantime, business is significantly bleaker; incoming orders in the first half of 2019 were down by around 10 percent, whereby the German market sharply slowed down with minus 14 percent. The VDMA attributes this primarily to special effects. "On the one hand, there are the still unresolved consequences of the EU Type Approval Regulation for tractors, which in 2017 and 2018 resulted in a large number of dealer approvals and in some cases are still congesting inventories today," explains VDMA Managing Director Scherer. But there are also complaints about unusually high inventories in other agricultural product segments. Industry analysts assume that many dealers have filled their stocks primarily due to fears of possible supply bottlenecks.Farmers still willing to invest"It is obvious that this development has at least temporarily led to a downright decoupling of dealer and end customer markets," Scherer sums up. The current propensity of farmers to invest proves this thesis, as the number of farmers with short- to medium-term investment projects is surprisingly stable. If one compares the purchase intentions for tractors, agricultural machinery and related software systems in the first two quarters and at the beginning of the third quarter with those of the previous year, the differences are very marginal. "The fact that many farmers are still in a buying mood is a result of the increasing speed of innovation in agriculture and agricultural machinery. From an economic point of view, this will of course require decent income," says Scherer. The raw material markets are currently providing this. Milk and wheat, the most important agricultural products in Europe, are currently performing surprisingly well in terms of value due to opposing volume and price effects.Traces of a slowdown in the German market, France stableThe industry is currently experiencing visible signs of a slowdown, especially on the German market, while France, the largest agricultural machinery market in Western Europe in terms of value, is clearly lagging behind the economic cycle and is therefore "exercising a positive compensatory function for the overall market", expresses Scherer. However, the good income situation of French farmers, flanked by state investment aid, also plays into the hands of industry. The southern countries Italy and Spain also benefit from adequate incomes. By contrast, Europe's largest industry association considers the situation in the UK being bleak: "In view of the Brexit, enormous pull-forward effects could be observed until spring. The uncertainties that have become increasingly visible since then have caused the agricultural machinery business to suffer a severe decline of about 20 percent," says Scherer.107-billion-euro world market volumeOn the world market, VDMA statisticians expect zero growth in 2019 with a total volume of 107 billion euros. The weakness of China, where the previous year had already seen a minus of 11 percent, is having a negative impact on the industry as a whole. An end to the downturn is not yet in sight. "But the basic problem is well known: Most companies are small, do not cover their costs and are dependent on the subsidies fund," emphasises Bernd Scherer. The US market, on the other hand, benefited from significant tax relief. In the previous year, growth of 9 percent was achieved. America experts also expect stable conditions in 2019. However, a trend reversal is in sight. Soya stocks are already piling up. "The United States seem to be gradually falling into the stranglehold of the trade war they themselves have instigated. Most benefiting from this, Brazil has stepped into the breach to inherit the USA as the former largest exporter of soybeans. For me, this textbook example illustrates why it always pays off in the long run to fight for the best solutions in open competition," Scherer sums up.Agricultural engineering is a problem solver in the climate issueAccording to the association's managing director, this insight is also very topical in the highly emotional climate debate: "In order to achieve sustainable progress here, it is not excessive regulation that is needed, but a competition of ideas and solutions open to all types of technology. Our industry is well prepared for this, as it deliberately sees itself not as a defensive player but as a proactive problem solver, supplier and service provider for farmers," says Scherer. The significant progress in CO2 and fuel reduction, which the industry can scientifically substantiate, proves just how strong the efficiency performance of the agricultural machinery industry is today.EKoTech research project quantifies potential savingsIn a research project on fuel efficiency in agricultural production processes funded by the German Federal Ministry of Agriculture with more than 5 million euros, science, industry and associations have impressively demonstrated over the past two years how significantly the CO2 emissions curve has fallen since 1990 and will continue to do so. The fuel concept of the agricultural machinery industry requires above all process solutions to massively reduce CO2 emissions by 2030. It is not the isolated focus on the engine or powertrain that provides the answer here, but a holistic view of the entire value chain, which begins with tillage and sowing, continues with fertilization and crop protection and ends with the harvesting and logistics process. "On the basis of extensive empirical surveys and model calculations, this plausible approach has enabled us to demonstrate significant efficiency enhancements in the overall process in our EKoTech project. A plus that pays off not only ecologically but also economically," says Scherer. The research consortium has presented more than 30 measures, which will be presented to the public at a top-class symposium with experts from industry, science and politics held at Agritechnica in Hanover on 11 November.Do you have any further questions? Christoph G?tz, phone +49 69 6603 1891, christoph.goetz@, will be happy to answer them.170 manufacturers of innovative agricultural machinery, tractors and software systems are organised in the VDMA Agricultural Machinery Association. With a sales volume of 8.6 billion euros (2018) and around 30,000 employees in Germany, the agricultural machinery industry is one of the leading sectors of mechanical and plant engineering.The VDMA represents more than 3,200 companies in the medium-sized mechanical and plant engineering sector. With a good 1.3 million employees in Germany and a turnover of 232 billion euros (2018), the sector is the largest industrial employer and one of the leading German branches of industry overall. ................
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