PDF Economic Indicators: Auto Sales - Yardeni Research

US Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.

October 6, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Car & Light Truck Sales

1

Car & Light Truck Sales & Production

2

Domestic Auto Inventories

3

Auto Sales

4-5

PCED & CPI Autos

6

PCE Autos

7

Misc

8-9

October 6, 2021 / Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Car & Light Truck Sales

Figure 1.

22

22

US MOTOR VEHICLE SALES* (million units, saar)

20

20

Total (12.4)

12-month

18

moving average (15.9)

18

16

16

14

14

Sep

12

12

10

10



8

8

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Includes domestic cars, light trucks, and imports. Source: Autodata and Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.

12

US MOTOR VEHICLE SALES* (million units, saar)

10

8

12

Auto Sales

Domestic Cars (1.7)

Domestic Light

10

Trucks (7.3)

Imports (3.5)

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

Sep



0

0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Autodata and Haver Analytics.

Page 1 / October 6, 2021 / Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Car & Light Truck Sales & Production

Figure 3.

24

24

DOMESTIC AUTO & LIGHT TRUCK SALES & PRODUCTION

21

(million units, saar)

21

18

18

15

15

12

12

9

Domestic Auto

6

Sales (8.9)

Production (9.2)

3

Sep

9

6

3

0

0



-3

-3

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 4.

10

10

DOMESTIC AUTO & LIGHT TRUCK PRODUCTION

9 (million units, saar)

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

Autos (1.8)

1

Light Trucks (7.4)

0

Aug

2

1

0

-1

-1



-2

-2

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 2 / October 6, 2021 / Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Domestic Auto Inventories

Figure 5.

5.0

DOMESTIC AUTO INVENTORY/SALES RATIO*

4.5

(month's supply)

5.0

Latest (0.7) 4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

Aug

.5

.5



.0

.0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Autos produced in US, Canada, and Mexico and sold in US. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 6.

DOMESITC AUTO INDUSTRY DAYS' SUPPLY (I/S ratio times the number of selling days)

150

150

100

100

50

50

Aug



0

0

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 3 / October 6, 2021 / Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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