Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical - Yardeni Research

Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment,

& Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.

November 11, 2022

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

480-664-1333 jabbott@

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

1

Global Growth Barometer

2

Economic Surprise Index

3

Investors Intelligence Sentiment

4

Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0

5

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0

6

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0

7

AAII Sentiment

8

Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence

9

Volatility

10

Volume

11

Dow Theory

12

S&P 500 Moving Averages

13-14

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma

15

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 16

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50017

November 11, 2022 / Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

Figure 1.

850

5000

S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

750

S&P 500 Index

CRB Raw Industrials Spot Index

650

11/11

4500 4000 3500

3000 11/10 550

2500

450

2000

1500 350

1000



250

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 2.

-100

S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

300

700

1100

1500

S&P 500 Index

1900

2300

11/5 11/11

5000 4500 4000 3500

2700

3000

3100

Initial Unemployment Claims

3500

(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,

2500

inverted scale) 3900

4300

2000

4700 5100

1500

5500 5900 6300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

1000 500

Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor's.

Page 1 / November 11, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc.



Global Growth Barometer

Figure 3.

5000

5000

YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500

4500

4500

4000

YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1232.9)

S&P 500 Index (3992.9)

3500

11/11

4000 3500

3000

3000

2500

2500

2000

2000

1500 1000

11/10

1500 1000



500

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added. Source: Standard & Poor's and Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 4.

200

US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

175 S&P 500 Index

Brent Crude Oil Price*

150

(dollars per barrel)

125

100

75

50

11/11 11/10

5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500

25

1000



0

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Nearby futures price. Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Page 2 / November 11, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc.



Economic Surprise Index

Figure 5.

1000

400

S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

(percent)

350

800

300

600

250

200

400

150

100 200

50

0

11/11

0

11/11 -50

-200 -100

-400

-150

-200

-600

S&P 500 minus its

200 day-moving average

-250

-300

-800

Economic Surprise Index

-350



-1000

-400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.

Figure 6.

25

300

S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

(percent) 250

23

S&P 500 Forward P/E* 200

21

150

19 100

17

50

11/3

11/11

0

15

-50

13

-100

11

Economic Surprise Index

-150



9

-200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Standard & Poor's, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Citigroup.

Page 3 / November 11, 2022 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc.



 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download