S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends

Corporate Finance Briefing: S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.

February 10, 2023

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

jabbott@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Buybacks & Dividends

3-6

Buybacks

7

S&P 1500/500/400/600 Divisors

8

Buybacks & Dividends

9

Buybacks & Dividends as % of Operating Earnings

10

S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Buybacks

11

S&P 500 Sectors Cumulative Buybacks Since Q1-2009

12

S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Dividends

13

S&P 500 Sectors Four Quarter Buybacks

14

S&P 500 Sectors Quarterly Buybacks+Dividends

15

February 10, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Buybacks & Dividends

Figure 1.

1250

S&P 500 BUYBACKS 1150 (billion dollars, annualized)

1050

950

Actual x 4 (843.4)

4-Quarter Sum (981.6)

850

1250

1150

1050 Q3

950

Q3

850



750

750

650

650

550

550

450

450

350

350

250

250

150

150

50

50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Figure 2.

600

S&P 500 DIVIDENDS 550 (billion dollars, annualized)

600 Q4

550

500

500

450

Actual x 4 (582.2)

450

400

4-Quarter Sum (562.9)

400



350

350

300

300

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 3 / February 10, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Buybacks & Dividends

Figure 3.

300

S&P 500 BUYBACKS (billion dollars, quarterly, nsa)

250

200

300

250 Q3

200



150

150

100

100

50

50

0

0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Figure 4.

175

S&P 500 DIVIDENDS (billion dollars, quarterly)

150

125

175 150 Q4 125



100

100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0

0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 4 / February 10, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Buybacks & Dividends

Figure 5.

5

S&P 500 DIVIDENDS & BUYBACKS (trillion dollars, annualized)

4

Buybacks

3

Dividends

S&P 500 Index

5

Jan

4

3



2

2

Q3

1

1

Q4

0

0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Figure 6.

1200

S&P 500 BUYBACKS 1000 (billion dollars, annualized)

800

1200

1000

Q3

800

600

600

400

400

200

200

0

0

16

16

14

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS YIELD & CORPORATE BOND YIELD

14

(percent)

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

2/3

6

4

BoFA Merrill Lynch AAA

Corporate Bond Yield (4.4)

Jan

4

2

S&P 500 Forward Earnings Yield* (5.5)

0

2

0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Forward earnings (time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year) divided by S&P 500 stock price index. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, Standard & Poor's and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Page 5 / February 10, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends

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Buybacks & Dividends

Figure 7.

1800

S&P 500 BUYBACKS & DIVIDENDS

1600

(billion dollars, annualized)

1400

1800

1600

Q3

1400

1200

1200

1000

Total* (1532.6)

1000

800

800

600

600

400

400

200

200

0

0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

1300

1300

1100

1100

900 Buybacks* (981.6)

700

900 Q3

700

500

500

300

300

100

100

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

600

600

Q4

500

500

Dividends* (562.9)

400

400



300

300

200

200

100

100

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

*4-quarter sum. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 6 / February 10, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Buybacks

Figure 8.

600

600

TOTAL GROSS ISSUANCE OF STOCKS MINUS S&P 500 BUYBACKS

400

(billion dollars)

400

200

200

0

0

-200

-200

-400

-400

-600 -800 -1000

Total Gross Issuance of Stocks Minus S&P 500 Buybacks (annualized)

Corporate Equities: Net Issuance Nonfinancial Corporate Business (4-quarter sum)

-600

Q3

Q3

-800

-1000

-1200

-1200

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Page 7 / February 10, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.



S&P 1500/500/400/600 Divisors

Figure 9.

50000

S&P 1500 DIVISOR*

48000

46000

44000

42000

40000

2/10

38000 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

9750

S&P 1500 DIVISOR*

9250

8750 2/10

8250

7750

10

S&P 1500 DIVISOR*

8

(yearly percent change)

6

4

2

0 2/10

-2

-4

-6 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

10

S&P 1500 DIVISOR* (yearly percent change)

8

6

4

2

0

2/10 -2

7250 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

-4 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

3500

S&P 400 MIDCAP DIVISOR*

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000 2/10

500 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

25

S&P 400 MIDCAP DIVISOR*

20

(yearly percent change)

15

10

5

0

2/10

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

2500

S&P 600 SMALLCAP DIVISOR*

2000

1500

1000 2/10

500 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

20

S&P 600 DIVISOR*

15

(yearly percent change)

10

5

0 2/10

-5

-10

-15

-20

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

* Divisor is used to ensure that changes in shares outstanding, capital actions, and the addition or deletion of stocks to the index do not change the level of the index. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Page 8 / February 10, 2023 / S&P 500 Buybacks & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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