PDF Stock Guide Winter 2015 - MarketSmith
Quarterly Stock Guide
Winter 2015
new year,
new trading opportunities
Looking for the Best Stocks in 2015? Gain insight from the
best moves in 2014
Celgene Corp
TOP STOCKS 2014
The Stories Behind the Big Winners
? 2014 MarketSmith, Incorporated.
reachus@ -16-
12.31.2013
Successful investors know picking stock market winners starts by studying leaders of the past and identify common characteristics that preceded their big moves. Top Stocks 2014: The Stories Behind the Big Winners focuses on this year's biggest winners and highlights their fundamental stories.
Top Stocks 2014 includes:
? Over 60 stock graphs with price/volume activity and fundamental data as of 12/31/14
? Enhanced view of technical action, provided by MarketSmith's Pattern Recognition software
? Select fundamental stories to illustrate key growth drivers
Order your copy of Top Stocks 2014: The Stories Behind the Big Winners today.
Go to print or call us at (800) 452-4422.
Stock Guide
Winter 2015
As we head into 2015, it is important for investors to look back on 2014 to gain insight and perspective into one's investing successes and failures. At this time, the NASDAQ is up about 10%, though it has certainly been a choppy ride back and forth between positive and negative territory. In this winter edition of the Stock Guide, we'll review the best performing stocks and industry groups of the year, like Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). IPOs were some of the best performers this year if one was able to navigate the volatility and take profits in a disciplined fashion. If not, many profits disappeared in a matter of weeks. The rapidity of potential losses is why our shop focuses on a post-analysis: to prevent these draw-downs and losses from occurring in the future, thus increasing our long term portfolio returns. The stock screens in this edition were selected to help guide our 2014 postanalysis. Not only do the screens capture the best performing stocks and industry groups of this year, but they also try to locate emerging winners for next year. Only by studying the top stocks of 2014 can we ensure that we'll take advantage of the outsized gains of next year's top stocks.
Best returns, Your MarketSmith Team
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Stock Guide Chart Legend
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
50 49
*XYZ CORP (XYZ)
NASDAQ
BLDG-A/C & HEATING PRDS
17.1 SHRS / 12.2 FLT / AVG VOL 85,500
$24.13 (OH -4%)
MANUFACTURES HEATING, VENTILATION AND AIR CONDITION EQUIPMENT FOR THE INDUSTRIAL/CONSTRUCTION/COMMERCIAL MARKETS.
5/10 TO REPURCHASE 5% OF COMMON STOCK OUTSTANDING.
SHORT INT 24.3 DAYS -3%
OPTIONS ON
CBOE
UP/DOWN
1.0
EX-DIV
6/ 8
YIELD
1.5%
GROWTH RATE
EARNINGS STAB
EPS RANK
PE 16
(
5 YR PE
+31% 13 63
1.0XS&P) 9- 31
DEBT
0% 3.50 X BK VALUE FUNDS
NEW CEO 7/10 INVENTORY TO. 7.5X BANKS
TIMELINESS
B R&D
13.6% MGMT
ACC/DIST
D RET ON EQUITY 26% ALPHA
SMR RATING
B CASH FLOW
$2 BETA
40% 8%
29% 0.03 0.98
EARNINGS(DEC) HI LO GROUP REL STR 82 RS EPS IPO 7/7/07
$ 5.00
(C) (W)
COMPOSITE RATING 82
04 $ 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
0.39 $ 0.60 0.90 1.22 1.60 1.62 1.38 EST 1.62 EST
14
9 SmithAO
AOS
13
9 Watsco
WSO
19 11 Lennox
LII
23 16
23 12
22 14 -15%
CANADIAN QTR 4
+17%
81 76 75
95 82 85
QTR ACTIVE
1
QTR 2 25.11
QTR 3
PRICE SCALE
24
48 47
46
45
44 43 42
22.32
20.63
22.00 20.72
22.41
22
21.50
20
R S LINE VS SP500
2/1
17704
5376
18.00
18.49 18.64
PSO
DIV INC
84 18
FORBES
? 06/04/10
16
VOLUME
*
* (00) 1000
600 400
17 31 14 28 11 25 9 23 6 20 4 18 1 15 29 12 26 12 26 9 23 7 21 4 18 2
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN 10 FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
* * EPS DUE 8/10 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30, 09 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30, 09 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31, 09 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31, 10
EARNINGS $
0.43 VS 0.43
0% 0.45 VS 0.47
-4% 0.36 VS 0.35
+3% 0.30 VS 0.39 -23%
SALES MIL. $ 68.6 VS 74.8
-8% 58.5 VS 79.3 -26% 54.2 VS 60.2 -10% 49.3 VS 64.0 -23%
DIVIDEND-PE $ 0.18
13X -- 9X N/A
13X -- 11X $ 0.18
12X -- 11X N/A
14X -- 12X
41
40
39 38 37 36
35 34
21
22 23
24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31
32
33
1. 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate Over 20% 15. Average Daily Volume Over Last 50
Per Year
Trading Days
2. Company Name
3. Industry Group Classification
4. Datablock Containing the Following Information:
a. Short Interest Value and Percent Change
b. Options Availability and Exchange c. 50-Day Ratio of Daily Up Volume to
Daily Down Volume
16. Datablock Containing the Following Information:
a. Stock Price Relative to Book Value b. Inventory Turnover c. Research and Development % of Total
Sales d. Return on Equity Percentage e. Cash Flow Per Share From Operations 17. Convertible Issues
d. Ex-Dividend Date e. Current Yield 5. Ticker or Trading Symbol 6. Top 5 Stocks in Group 7. Primary Exchange
18. Warrants Outstanding 19. Closing Price 20. % Off High 21. Datablock Containing the Following
Information
8. Industry Group Relative Strength Rating
a. Mutual Fund Sponsorship
9. Common Shares Outstanding (in Millions) 10. Web Address 11. Active stock (NASDAQ only) 12. Floating Supply (in Millions) 13. Datablock Containing the Following
Information: a. 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate b. Best RS Line & Rating Factor
b. Bank Sponsorship c. Management Ownership d. Alpha e. Beta 22. Composite Rating 23. Arithmetic Price Scale 24. Key High and Low Price Points 25. 50-Day Moving Average Price Line
c. Earnings Per Share Rank (EPS Rank) 26. 200-Day Moving Average Price Line
d. Current Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio e. High and Low Price/Earnings (P/E)
Ratios 14. Datablock Containing the Following
Information:
a. Debt Percentage b. New CEO in Last 2 Years c. Timeliness Rating d. Accumulation/Distribution Rating e. SMR Rating
27. Relative Strength Rating
28. Relative Strength Compared to S&P 500
29. Article in Major Publication
30. *Indicates 2nd Highest Weekly Volume in Last 12 Months
31. *Indicates Highest Weekly Volume in Last Year or Volume 100% or More Above ADV
32. Volume Scale
33. Earnings % Change
34. Qtrly EPS Compared to EPS Same Qtr Last Year ( denotes pretax, nonrecurring items included)
35. Insider Buying/Selling
36. Qtrly Sales Compared to Sales Same Qtr Last Year
37. 50-Day Average Daily Volume
38. High and Low P/E Ratio for the Quarter
39. Dividend Change
40. Security Announcement
41. Cash Dividend for the Quarter
42. *Indicates Earnings Expected to Report Within 4 Weeks
43. *Indicates Earnings Were Reported in Last 2 Weeks
44. Volume Peaks (in Hundreds)
45. Stock Dividend or Split
46. Daily High, Low, and Closing Prices
47. Line Indicates Beginning of Calendar Quarter
48. Indicator for Canadian Dollars
49. Datablock Containing the Following Information: a. Fiscal Year End b. Annual Operating Earnings ( denotes pretax, non-recurring items included) c. Calendar Year High/Low Prices d. Earnings Per Share Estimates e. EPS Estimates % Change f. Estimate Revision
50. Business Summary
Table of Contents
Stock Guide Legend. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Market Charts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Conducting a Post Analysis of Your Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Winter 2014 Screens*
2014's Best Performers
9
Vasco Data Security Intl . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . VDSI. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Triquint Semiconductor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TQNT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
R F Micro Devices Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RFMD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Skyworks Solutions Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SWKS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Century Aluminum Co . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CENX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Vipshop Holdings Ltd Ads. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . VIPS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2014's Best Performing Industries
13
Southwest Airlines Co. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . LUV. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Electronic Arts Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . EA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Allergan Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AGN. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Jetblue Airways Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . JBLU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Keurig Green Mountain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GMCR. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Delta Air Lines Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DAL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2014's Future Earnings Growth
17
Triquint Semiconductor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TQNT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Energy Transfer Eqty LP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ETE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Freescale Semiconductor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FSL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Sierra Wireless Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SWIR. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Store Capital Corp. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . STOR. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Alcoa Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2014's Top IPOs
21
Gopro Inc Cl A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GPRO. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Michaels Companies Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . MIK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Cyberark Software Ltd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CYBR. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Norwegian Cruise Lne Hld. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NCLH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Zoetis Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ZTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
C D W Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CDW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on December 26, 2014.
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