PDF Stock Guide Winter 2015 - MarketSmith

Quarterly Stock Guide

Winter 2015

new year,

new trading opportunities

Looking for the Best Stocks in 2015? Gain insight from the

best moves in 2014

Celgene Corp

TOP STOCKS 2014

The Stories Behind the Big Winners

? 2014 MarketSmith, Incorporated.

reachus@ -16-

12.31.2013

Successful investors know picking stock market winners starts by studying leaders of the past and identify common characteristics that preceded their big moves. Top Stocks 2014: The Stories Behind the Big Winners focuses on this year's biggest winners and highlights their fundamental stories.

Top Stocks 2014 includes:

? Over 60 stock graphs with price/volume activity and fundamental data as of 12/31/14

? Enhanced view of technical action, provided by MarketSmith's Pattern Recognition software

? Select fundamental stories to illustrate key growth drivers

Order your copy of Top Stocks 2014: The Stories Behind the Big Winners today.

Go to print or call us at (800) 452-4422.

Stock Guide

Winter 2015

As we head into 2015, it is important for investors to look back on 2014 to gain insight and perspective into one's investing successes and failures. At this time, the NASDAQ is up about 10%, though it has certainly been a choppy ride back and forth between positive and negative territory. In this winter edition of the Stock Guide, we'll review the best performing stocks and industry groups of the year, like Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). IPOs were some of the best performers this year if one was able to navigate the volatility and take profits in a disciplined fashion. If not, many profits disappeared in a matter of weeks. The rapidity of potential losses is why our shop focuses on a post-analysis: to prevent these draw-downs and losses from occurring in the future, thus increasing our long term portfolio returns. The stock screens in this edition were selected to help guide our 2014 postanalysis. Not only do the screens capture the best performing stocks and industry groups of this year, but they also try to locate emerging winners for next year. Only by studying the top stocks of 2014 can we ensure that we'll take advantage of the outsized gains of next year's top stocks.

Best returns, Your MarketSmith Team

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Stock Guide Chart Legend

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

50 49

*XYZ CORP (XYZ)

NASDAQ

BLDG-A/C & HEATING PRDS

17.1 SHRS / 12.2 FLT / AVG VOL 85,500



$24.13 (OH -4%)

MANUFACTURES HEATING, VENTILATION AND AIR CONDITION EQUIPMENT FOR THE INDUSTRIAL/CONSTRUCTION/COMMERCIAL MARKETS.

5/10 TO REPURCHASE 5% OF COMMON STOCK OUTSTANDING.

SHORT INT 24.3 DAYS -3%

OPTIONS ON

CBOE

UP/DOWN

1.0

EX-DIV

6/ 8

YIELD

1.5%

GROWTH RATE

EARNINGS STAB

EPS RANK

PE 16

(

5 YR PE

+31% 13 63

1.0XS&P) 9- 31

DEBT

0% 3.50 X BK VALUE FUNDS

NEW CEO 7/10 INVENTORY TO. 7.5X BANKS

TIMELINESS

B R&D

13.6% MGMT

ACC/DIST

D RET ON EQUITY 26% ALPHA

SMR RATING

B CASH FLOW

$2 BETA

40% 8%

29% 0.03 0.98

EARNINGS(DEC) HI LO GROUP REL STR 82 RS EPS IPO 7/7/07

$ 5.00

(C) (W)

COMPOSITE RATING 82

04 $ 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0.39 $ 0.60 0.90 1.22 1.60 1.62 1.38 EST 1.62 EST

14

9 SmithAO

AOS

13

9 Watsco

WSO

19 11 Lennox

LII

23 16

23 12

22 14 -15%

CANADIAN QTR 4

+17%

81 76 75

95 82 85

QTR ACTIVE

1

QTR 2 25.11

QTR 3

PRICE SCALE

24

48 47

46

45

44 43 42

22.32

20.63

22.00 20.72

22.41

22

21.50

20

R S LINE VS SP500

2/1

17704

5376

18.00

18.49 18.64

PSO

DIV INC

84 18

FORBES

? 06/04/10

16

VOLUME

*

* (00) 1000

600 400

17 31 14 28 11 25 9 23 6 20 4 18 1 15 29 12 26 12 26 9 23 7 21 4 18 2

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN 10 FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

* * EPS DUE 8/10 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30, 09 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30, 09 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31, 09 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31, 10

EARNINGS $

0.43 VS 0.43

0% 0.45 VS 0.47

-4% 0.36 VS 0.35

+3% 0.30 VS 0.39 -23%

SALES MIL. $ 68.6 VS 74.8

-8% 58.5 VS 79.3 -26% 54.2 VS 60.2 -10% 49.3 VS 64.0 -23%

DIVIDEND-PE $ 0.18

13X -- 9X N/A

13X -- 11X $ 0.18

12X -- 11X N/A

14X -- 12X

41

40

39 38 37 36

35 34

21

22 23

24 25

26 27 28 29 30 31

32

33

1. 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate Over 20% 15. Average Daily Volume Over Last 50

Per Year

Trading Days

2. Company Name

3. Industry Group Classification

4. Datablock Containing the Following Information:

a. Short Interest Value and Percent Change

b. Options Availability and Exchange c. 50-Day Ratio of Daily Up Volume to

Daily Down Volume

16. Datablock Containing the Following Information:

a. Stock Price Relative to Book Value b. Inventory Turnover c. Research and Development % of Total

Sales d. Return on Equity Percentage e. Cash Flow Per Share From Operations 17. Convertible Issues

d. Ex-Dividend Date e. Current Yield 5. Ticker or Trading Symbol 6. Top 5 Stocks in Group 7. Primary Exchange

18. Warrants Outstanding 19. Closing Price 20. % Off High 21. Datablock Containing the Following

Information

8. Industry Group Relative Strength Rating

a. Mutual Fund Sponsorship

9. Common Shares Outstanding (in Millions) 10. Web Address 11. Active stock (NASDAQ only) 12. Floating Supply (in Millions) 13. Datablock Containing the Following

Information: a. 5-Year Earnings Growth Rate b. Best RS Line & Rating Factor

b. Bank Sponsorship c. Management Ownership d. Alpha e. Beta 22. Composite Rating 23. Arithmetic Price Scale 24. Key High and Low Price Points 25. 50-Day Moving Average Price Line

c. Earnings Per Share Rank (EPS Rank) 26. 200-Day Moving Average Price Line

d. Current Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio e. High and Low Price/Earnings (P/E)

Ratios 14. Datablock Containing the Following

Information:

a. Debt Percentage b. New CEO in Last 2 Years c. Timeliness Rating d. Accumulation/Distribution Rating e. SMR Rating

27. Relative Strength Rating

28. Relative Strength Compared to S&P 500

29. Article in Major Publication

30. *Indicates 2nd Highest Weekly Volume in Last 12 Months

31. *Indicates Highest Weekly Volume in Last Year or Volume 100% or More Above ADV

32. Volume Scale

33. Earnings % Change

34. Qtrly EPS Compared to EPS Same Qtr Last Year ( denotes pretax, nonrecurring items included)

35. Insider Buying/Selling

36. Qtrly Sales Compared to Sales Same Qtr Last Year

37. 50-Day Average Daily Volume

38. High and Low P/E Ratio for the Quarter

39. Dividend Change

40. Security Announcement

41. Cash Dividend for the Quarter

42. *Indicates Earnings Expected to Report Within 4 Weeks

43. *Indicates Earnings Were Reported in Last 2 Weeks

44. Volume Peaks (in Hundreds)

45. Stock Dividend or Split

46. Daily High, Low, and Closing Prices

47. Line Indicates Beginning of Calendar Quarter

48. Indicator for Canadian Dollars

49. Datablock Containing the Following Information: a. Fiscal Year End b. Annual Operating Earnings ( denotes pretax, non-recurring items included) c. Calendar Year High/Low Prices d. Earnings Per Share Estimates e. EPS Estimates % Change f. Estimate Revision

50. Business Summary

Table of Contents

Stock Guide Legend. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Market Charts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Conducting a Post Analysis of Your Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Winter 2014 Screens*

2014's Best Performers

9

Vasco Data Security Intl . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . VDSI. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Triquint Semiconductor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TQNT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

R F Micro Devices Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . RFMD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Skyworks Solutions Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SWKS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Century Aluminum Co . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CENX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Vipshop Holdings Ltd Ads. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . VIPS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

2014's Best Performing Industries

13

Southwest Airlines Co. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . LUV. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Electronic Arts Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . EA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Allergan Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AGN. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Jetblue Airways Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . JBLU. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Keurig Green Mountain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GMCR. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Delta Air Lines Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DAL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

2014's Future Earnings Growth

17

Triquint Semiconductor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TQNT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Energy Transfer Eqty LP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ETE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Freescale Semiconductor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . FSL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Sierra Wireless Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SWIR. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Store Capital Corp. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . STOR. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Alcoa Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

2014's Top IPOs

21

Gopro Inc Cl A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GPRO. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Michaels Companies Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . MIK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Cyberark Software Ltd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CYBR. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Norwegian Cruise Lne Hld. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NCLH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

Zoetis Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ZTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

C D W Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CDW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on December 26, 2014.

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