Status of Senior Service School Program



Purpose: Engage in a discussion with Business Executives for National Security (BENS) during a breakfast meeting. The topic is “The Arctic: Opportunities and Challenges.” Audience: You will be sitting around a table with ~30 BENS members. BENS is a nonprofit comprised of varied senior business and industry executives who volunteer their time and expertise to address the national security community’s most pressing challenges. Aside from the host, General Schwartz, who has spent considerable time working on Arctic issues, this audience will be generally less familiar with Arctic issues and will benefit from a broad overview of the issues in the region to set a baseline of understanding before delving into more detailed topics during the discussion phase.Media: Off-the-record. No media and Chatham House Rules apply.Strategic Objective: Educate and bolster third-party advocacy.Duration: After being introduced by the host, you will deliver 20-30 minute remarks with the balance of the 1hr 45 min breakfast for dialogue and Q&A.CG OVERVIEWThe Coast Guard is the only armed service in DHS. And we are the only military service that is, at all times, a law enforcement agency as well. This makes us unique and positions us to help address challenges others can’t. We ideally complement and buttress our Nation’s unmatched “hard power” in atypical ways as we ready our national defense and ensure our national security.While the Coast Guard plugs strategically into the National Military Strategy, I ask, where is our DoD brethren not? While our DoD forces are necessarily drawn far from our shores, we are strategically focused closer to home – both south of our border and in the far north.THE SCENE IN THE ARCTICConditions in the Arctic are changing before our eyes. In Shishmaref, Alaska they “voted themselves off the island.” A storm in 2013 eroded 50 feet of the beach overnight. And there are 31 other Alaska Native villages in "imminent danger" because of erosion and flooding. We literally have houses falling into the ocean. I’m agnostic as to cause, but I’ve seen the effects with my own eyes. I traveled to the Jakobshavn Glacier in Greenland and spoke with the Inuit elders – spoke to those who have witnessed drastic changes first hand. In the last 5 years, Jakobshavn has retreated 25 miles and Disko is now ice free. Just days ago, an iceberg the size of Delaware broke away from Antarctica… Delaware! If this iceberg had a freeway on it, to drive from one side to the other, it would take you 3 hours! And, I use what is happening in Greenland… Antarctica… the Arctic… as predictors for changes we can expect along our coasts nationwide. Being ready is a requirement for the military and that means forecasting what our future will look like. While there is a range of predicted sea level rise in the U.S. (IPC reports a range from 0.26-0.98m while NOAA projects a range from 0.5-2.5m), the fact remains, we must prepare.But in the Arctic and the Antarctic, the future is here. In the Antarctic, it’s all over the news as we speak. Antarctica is shedding one of the largest icebergs in history — big enough to fill Lake Michigan.In the Arctic, we are currently losing approximately “One Utah” of sea-ice per year… And we’ve seen increased occurrences of icebergs moving south from Greenland and through shipping lanes – 979 icebergs have entered the shipping lanes thus far for the 2017 Ice Season… the average for the end of June is 448.With opening waters in the North comes increased shipping along with increased access to precious resources.[Above the Surface] We are seeing more shipping activity than last year. Tribal subsistence and small-scale fishing; eight research vessels (SIKULIAQ & OCEAN STAR: United States; POLAR PRINCE & SIR WILFRID LAURIER: Canada; OSHORO MARU & MIRAI: Japan; XUE LONG: China; ARAON: South Korea); three medium/large cruise ships: CRYSTAL SERENITY: 1070 passengers/655 crew; LE BOREAL: 264 passengers/139 crew; C/S BREMEN: 155 Passengers/110 crew plus 12 cruise ships in the Canadian Arctic; and around 500 commercial tankers and barge transits/voyages per year.[Below the Surface] The USGS concluded that about 30% of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil resources (or 90 billion barrels) may be found north of the Arctic Circle. Of those, USGS estimates 30 billion barrels of oil and 181 trillion cubic feet of gas may be technically recoverable – an estimated 50% of which is in US territory (land and sea)!Arctic and non-Arctic Nations alike are vying for rights to these rich resources. All the military services are unified in the position that we must ratify UNCLOS. Nation’s are submitting their extended continental shelf claims to the Commission but without ratification, we cannot. Ratifying and submitting our data to the Commission is the best way to perfect our claim. Of course, the U.S. still holds exclusive rights to resources on or below the seabed in our ECS – whether we claim it with the UN Commission or not – whether we extract resources or not. But, we are not well positioned to object if any Nation were to submit a claim that overlaps with our boundary. And, making a valid claim to the Commission it really is the best way to perfect our sovereign rights.[Militarization] Just this year Russia opened an Arctic military command and has launched as many icebreakers in June of 2016 as the U.S. Coast Guard has launched in the past 40 years. When you look at the chart of the area you can see why Russia has so many more, but we still do not have the fleet we require. And Russia plans to add two Arctic corvettes, armed with cruise missiles, by 2020. The corvettes will combine the qualities of a tug, icebreaker, and patrol boat. In addition, China is making strides to become a bigger player in the Arctic through investments in the region as well as in icebreakers. Toward the end of 2019, China plans to double the capacity of its icebreakers!Prudence demands that we prepare now for possible contingencies. For the Coast Guard, this means building a fleet of 3 heavy and 3 medium PIBs – based on a 2010 High Latitude Mission Analysis Study - that need to be equipped to respond to our current needs while reserving space, weight and power to meet future demands. This urgent need was just verified by the National Academies of Sciences. Importantly, we must not delay. We are working toward delivery of the first heavy no later than 2023! The fact is, we have an obligation to the citizens of this country to be prepared… to be able to ensure our National Security, assert our Nation's Sovereignty, and protect our National Economic Interests today and into the future.So, the Coast Guard takes a two pronged approach to meet our obligations in the region. Proper governance requires: Diplomacy and Presence. DIPLOMACYIn October of 2015, we established the Arctic Coast Guard Forum. It has proven to be even more successful than I could have hoped. When we first started meeting, we were strangers. Now, all 8 Arctic Nation’s are cooperating to build a cohesive governance regime in the region. And the value of this forum extends far beyond the confines of the Arctic Circle… Cooperative partnerships in this space can be used to diffuse strained relationships elsewhere…The issues emerging in the Arctic are too broad for any single entity or single Nation to manage - readiness requires collaboration.Knowing how quickly the private sector can mobilize... we need to ready now. And, we know that whenever there is a boom in industry, there is going to be gaps in experience, training, competence – especially when we are talking about the dynamic environment of the Arctic – and that means higher risk… risk to the environment and to lives.As I’ve indicated, proper governance will require a collaborative approach. And the ACGF has proven an action oriented body – we don’t just talk about what could happen – we actively prepare through information sharing and live field exercises. In a month, the cruise ship CRYSTAL SERENITY will head to New York via the Northwest Passage with 1500 people onboard. If something were to go wrong during the voyage, we’d need all hands on deck – national, international, local.PRESENCEReadiness also requires presence. Diplomacy and cooperation is empty without the right MDA footprint. That includes a fleet of polar icebreakers that can provide assured year-round access to visibly exert our sovereign rights, ensure our National security, and protect our economic interests in the Polar Regions (both north and south). Assured surface access is the only way we can effectively respond to threats (man-made or otherwise), facilitate emerging commercial activities (be it LMR management, resource extraction, shipping...), and enforce our sovereign rights in the EEZ and ECS.As I mentioned before, our minimum requirements are 3 heavy and 3 medium icebreakers. I’m grateful to report this important recapitalization has broad Congressional support. And even the President himself announced that he would work to get us “many icebreakers” when he discussed this need for our Nation at the CGA graduation.While we move out on the procurement for these National assets, we’ve also adapted our presence and optempo to improve our MDA as maritime activity in the region continues to rise. D17 executes operation Arctic Shield annually, to provide mobile, seasonal, and scalable presence. CLOSING / READINESS WOESWhen all is said and done, we are an Arctic Nation. Where there are U.S. waters and borders… we have both rights and obligations. It is the Coast Guard’s intention to secure those rights and meet those obligations. I look forward to hearing from you! What ideas or questions do you have for me? ................
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