2016 Colorado Elk Harvest Estimates - Colorado Parks and ...
2016 Colorado Elk Harvest Estimates
Contents
2016 Elk Data Analysis Unit (DAU) Map ......................................................................... 2 Methodology ........................................................................................................ 3 2016 Elk Hunters, Harvest and Recreation Days for All Seasons By DAU with 95% Confidence Intervals ....................................................................................................................... 4 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Manners of Take .................................. 5 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Rifle Seasons ...................................... 8 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Ranching for Wildlife Seasons ................ 11 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Early High Country Seasons ....................... 12 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Late Seasons (Includes PLOs) ..................... 12 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Private Land Only Seasons ........................ 13 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for First Rifle Seasons.................................. 15 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Second Rifle Seasons .............................. 18 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Third Rifle Seasons................................. 20 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Fourth Rifle Seasons ............................... 22 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for All Rifle Seasons .................................... 25 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for First Rifle Seasons .................................. 27 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for Second Rifle Seasons............................... 29 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for Third Rifle Seasons ................................. 32 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for Fourth Rifle Seasons ............................... 34 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Archery Seasons ................................ 36 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Muzzleloader Seasons.......................... 39 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for All Muzzleloader Seasons.......................... 42 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 1st Season Limited Antlered Seasons ............ 44 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 2nd Season Limited Antlered Seasons ............ 46 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 3rd Season Limited Antlered Seasons ............ 46 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 4th Season Limited Antlered Seasons ............ 47 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 1st Season Limited Antlerless Seasons ........... 49 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 2nd Season Limited Antlerless Seasons .......... 50 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 2nd Split Season Limited Antlerless Seasons .... 52 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 3rd Season Limited Antlerless Seasons........... 53 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 3rd Split Season Limited Antlerless Seasons .... 55 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 4th Season Limited Antlerless Seasons ........... 55 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 4th Split Season Limited Antlerless Seasons .... 57 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 1st Season Limited Either-sex Seasons........... 57 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 2nd Season Limited Either-sex Seasons .......... 58 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 3rd Season Limited Either-sex Seasons .......... 59
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2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 4th Season Limited Either-sex Seasons .......... 59 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Early PLO Seasons Only............................ 60 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Late PLO Seasons Only ............................ 62 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Late Seasons (Does not include PLOs)....... 62 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for All Late Seasons (Does not include PLOs) ....... 63 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Bosque del Oso Seasons ....................... 64 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Damage, AFA and Auction/Raffle Hunts .... 64 2016 Elk Data Analysis Unit (DAU) Map
2
Methodology
Revenue, licensing, and management of Colorado's deer, elk and pronghorn populations rely on information Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW) collects annually from hunters. Thousands of Colorado hunting license-holders voluntarily provide this information in what is referred to as the Big Game Harvest Survey. How this survey, and specifically the answers hunters provide to questionnaires supports wildlife management decisions and license setting is both complicated and not widely understood. However, season setting and license allocation do rely on the Big Game Harvest Survey, as do hunters to determine when and how to hunt big game.
Here is how it works. Each year, CPW contracts a third party vendor to conduct the Big Game Harvest Survey. Email/online and live operator telephone based questionnaires collect general harvest and participation information for all seasons and manners of take at a Data Analysis Unit (DAU) level. Each DAU represents a geographic area that a specific herd will utilize throughout the year and consists of one or more Game Management Units (GMU). GMUs are used to control hunter distribution in each DAU, which is accomplished through the use of established hunts and license setting. By collecting and analyzing hunter survey responses at the DAU level, CPW can increase precision in reporting and analysis.
In 2016, the sale of hunting and fishing licenses generated more than $75 million in revenue for CPW and more than 70% of this revenue came from deer, elk and pronghorn license sales. CPW sold approximately 342,000 deer, elk and pronghorn licenses for nearly 2,300 different hunts. Hunts held between August 15, 2016 and January 31, 2017 that were available to the general public through the limited license draws, Landowner Preference Program (LPP) vouchers, Over-TheCounter, and Leftover sales were included in the annual Big Game Harvest Survey. To ensure all hunts were included in the DAU estimates, the Big Game Harvest Survey used stratified random sampling of licenses based on hunt code, residency and/or hunter age group. This voluntary sample based survey allows CPW to estimate harvest more cost effectively and without the penalties for noncompliance necessary with a mandatory survey. In total, 328,538 licenses were sold for hunts included in the 2016 harvest survey resulting in 163,380 deer, elk and pronghorn licenses being sampled overall.
In addition, 222,257 licenses were sold for the 1,053 elk hunts included in the annual harvest survey. However, 4,157 of those licenses had invalid contact information at the time of sampling and were not included in the sample. The random sampling resulted in 109,941 elk licenses being selected for the annual harvest survey. At the end of data collection, 55,600 elk surveys had been completed resulting in a 51 percent overall response rate.
The harvest figures are estimates of harvest and participation extrapolated by comparing survey responses to licenses sold. The DAU estimates are followed by the standard error (SE) of the estimate, which is a measure of the precision of the estimate. The 95% Lower Confidence Limit (LCL) and 95% Upper Confidence Limit (UCL) columns provide the upper and lower values for the 95% confidence limits around the estimate. For example, we estimated total harvest of elk for DAU E-6 at 7,057 with a SE of 175. The 95% confidence interval estimates that between 6,722 and 7,408 elk were harvested in E-6 during the 2016 big game season.
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2016 Elk Hunters, Harvest and Recreation Days for All Seasons By DAU with 95% Confidence Intervals
DAU
E-1 E-2 E-3 E-4 E-6 E-7 E-8 E-9 E-10 E-11 E-12 E-13 E-14 E-15 E-16 E-17 E-18 E-19 E-20 E-21 E-22 E-23 E-24 E-25 E-26 E-27 E-28 E-30 E-31 E-32 E-33 E-34 E-35 E-38 E-39 E-40 E-41 E-43 E-47 E-51 E-52 E-53 E-55 E-99
estimate
384 20265 11321 5520 34065 6110 7711
920 8565 2070 3655 8518 17635 3242 5113 1831 2192 762 6510 615 2189 4844 11654 2906 3565 2929 1362 2828 9776 7016 6023 1838 4113 1492 1219 384 2230 5878
91 876 3521 321 129 1202
Total Hunters
SE LCL
2
380
174 19928
154 11022
55 5413
292 33497
97 5923
104 7509
33 858
128 8318
58 1959
75 3511
110 8305
193 17260
73 3102
97 4927
14 1804
18 2158
6
750
102 6313
11 594
0 2189
97 4658
145 11373
24 2859
73 3425
75 2785
0 1362
70 2694
132 9521
114 6797
102 5827
26 1788
71 3977
48 1400
16 1188
24 339
45 2144
91 5702
4
84
26 827
70 3387
24 278
0
129
41 1124
UCL
388 20608 11628 5629 34643 6304 7918
987 8819 2187 3805 8736 18019 3388 5307 1858 2227 774 6713 636 2189 5037 11942 2953 3711 3081 1362 2970 10037 7243 6226 1890 4254 1590 1251 435 2319 6059
99 929 3661 370 129 1286
estimate
235 5340 1356 689 7057 648 746 339 1744 436 387 879 2754 536 564 372 380 408 1578 326 679 394 2010 552 261 476 440 527 1583 828 1531 415 837 206 288
91 307 697 28 234 698 54 56 244
Total Harvest
SE LCL
9
218
112 5125
71 1224
56 588
175 6722
40 575
57 642
40 270
72 1609
27 386
30 333
53 782
105 2556
36 470
36 498
21 333
23 338
21 370
50 1484
16 296
31 622
30 340
72 1873
32 494
27 214
50 388
33 379
38 457
68 1456
48 739
55 1426
22 374
46 753
21 170
24 246
12
71
28 257
43 617
4
21
18 202
37 629
9
39
4
49
21 207
UCL
253 5565 1502 806 7408 731 867 426 1890 492 450 989 2968 611 638 417 429 450 1678 360 742 457 2156 618 320 584 509 608 1722 928 1643 461 931 251 339 116 366 787
36 271 775 74 63 287
Percent Success
61.2 26.4 12 12.5 20.7 10.6 9.7 36.9 20.4 21 10.6 10.3 15.6 16.5 11 20.3 17.4 53.6 24.2 53.1 31 8.1 17.2 19 7.3 16.3 32.3 18.6 16.2 11.8 25.4 22.6 20.4 13.8 23.7 23.6 13.8 11.9 30.3 26.7 19.8 16.8 43.1 20.3
Total Recreation Days
estimate SE
LCL
UCL
1674 88711 54289 31865 161463 32152 35909 9564 42322 9439 18122 42045 96786 17270 27926 11499 12927 4024 38417 2629 12846 28079 64060 15217 20238 18879 8843 16847 52358 39335 32613 9576 21035 10313 9326 1953 12330 31433
479 7227 20669 1759 1329 9490
54 1157 933 1149 1674 714 677 1581 816 357 509 793 1938 519 709 494 430 197 804 125 339 862 1014 215 549 1514 954 693 910 854 802 210 540 1103 783 165 312 609
57 700 605 166 63 861
1572 86473 52490 29691 158215 30784 34607 6933 40753 8764 17152 40519 93062 16283 26571 10572 12111 3655 36874 2394 12198 26440 62103 14801 19189 16136 7163 15543 50605 37696 31079 9174 20004 8368 7914 1656 11734 30262
380 5980 19516 1462 1212 7946
1783 91007 56149 34198 164777 33581 37261 13194 43952 10166 19148 43629 100659 18317 29350 12509 13799 4430 40026 2886 13528 29820 66079 15644 21343 22088 10919 18261 54172 41046 34223 9995 22120 12709 10991 2304 12957 32650
603 8734 21891 2116 1458 11334
Sample Rate
0.959 0.425 0.371 0.420 0.318 0.453 0.323 0.540 0.444 0.564 0.579 0.417 0.342 0.574 0.644 0.818 0.693 0.748 0.666 0.731 0.665 0.616 0.516 0.577 0.524 0.452 0.554 0.554 0.478 0.411 0.582 0.644 0.513 0.738 0.753 0.924 0.515 0.464 1.000 0.710 0.646 0.928
n/a 0.556
Response Rate
0.562 0.536 0.523 0.473 0.516 0.526 0.478 0.509 0.498 0.543 0.485 0.494 0.480 0.491 0.520 0.522 0.522 0.552 0.522 0.549 0.522 0.497 0.517 0.536 0.475 0.488 0.512 0.501 0.515 0.471 0.509 0.529 0.485 0.505 0.511 0.467 0.540 0.554 0.545 0.502 0.492 0.515
n/a 0.497
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2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Manners of Take
Unit
1 2 201 3 301 4 441 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 211 12 13 131 231 14 214 15 16 161 17 171 18 181 19 191 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 361 37 371 38 39 391 40 41 411
Bulls
12 39 47 320 172 646 413 352 198 188 86 32 49 581 365 815 278 84 121 253 317 202 139 88 84 70 231 82 119 39 125 221 299 478 248 147 107 97 240 24 49 175 87 174 70 84 125 16 95 73 68 70 15 167 128 80
Cows
17 82 60 438 162 584 286 183 241 55 76 19 245 616 210 594 329 169 130 118 332 225 136 74 156 78 337 36 37 18 182 189 260 385 231 99 105 99 231 53 55 191 71 154 50 66 48 27 127 59 52 54 68 193 200 88
Calves
0 4 7 20 19 24 17 23 29 0 17 0 23 45 24 89 37 13 13 12 35 20 19 16 3 10 56 5 0 2 30 36 36 27 11 20 19 5 20 10 9 36 25 13 3 17 8 0 24 8 0 7 7 17 11 6
Total Harvest
29 125 114 778 353 1,254 716 558 468 243 179 51 317 1,242 599 1,498 644 266 264 383 684 447 294 178 243 158 624 123 156 59 337 446 595 890 490 266 231 201 491 87 113 402 183 341 123 167 181 43 246 140 120 131 90 377 339 174
Total Percent
Total
Hunters Success Rec. Days
92
32
479
183
68
821
205
56
885
3,615
22
14,166
1,919
18
7,495
4,817
26
22,395
2,060
35
8,348
1,753
32
7,356
3,742
13
17,193
1,851
13
10,442
1,641
11
8,899
180
28
2,257
593
53
2,575
4,782
26
20,330
2,593
23
12,178
5,811
26
26,319
2,177
30
10,030
1,230
22
6,127
2,003
13
10,795
2,862
13
16,352
2,170
32
9,570
4,399
10
24,264
2,071
14
10,570
1,268
14
6,414
2,055
12
9,734
2,111
7
10,092
6,113
10
28,911
1,597
8
6,997
1,170
13
6,802
686
9
3,464
921
37
9,565
2,289
19
11,912
2,613
23
13,273
4,260
21
19,724
3,364
15
16,134
1,677
16
8,495
1,505
15
7,775
1,714
12
7,888
4,628
11
24,129
254
34
1,595
1,023
11
4,683
1,694
24
7,895
950
19
4,553
2,971
11
15,105
1,309
9
6,904
1,403
12
6,884
1,790
10
9,233
442
10
1,958
2,453
10
11,298
1,433
10
6,618
1,239
10
8,719
578
23
4,070
243
37
2,376
714
53
3,886
2,402
14
13,363
805
22
4,165
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