2016 Colorado Elk Harvest Estimates - Colorado Parks and ...

2016 Colorado Elk Harvest Estimates

Contents

2016 Elk Data Analysis Unit (DAU) Map ......................................................................... 2 Methodology ........................................................................................................ 3 2016 Elk Hunters, Harvest and Recreation Days for All Seasons By DAU with 95% Confidence Intervals ....................................................................................................................... 4 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Manners of Take .................................. 5 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Rifle Seasons ...................................... 8 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Ranching for Wildlife Seasons ................ 11 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Early High Country Seasons ....................... 12 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Late Seasons (Includes PLOs) ..................... 12 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Private Land Only Seasons ........................ 13 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for First Rifle Seasons.................................. 15 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Second Rifle Seasons .............................. 18 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Third Rifle Seasons................................. 20 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Fourth Rifle Seasons ............................... 22 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for All Rifle Seasons .................................... 25 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for First Rifle Seasons .................................. 27 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for Second Rifle Seasons............................... 29 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for Third Rifle Seasons ................................. 32 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for Fourth Rifle Seasons ............................... 34 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Archery Seasons ................................ 36 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Muzzleloader Seasons.......................... 39 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for All Muzzleloader Seasons.......................... 42 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 1st Season Limited Antlered Seasons ............ 44 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 2nd Season Limited Antlered Seasons ............ 46 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 3rd Season Limited Antlered Seasons ............ 46 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 4th Season Limited Antlered Seasons ............ 47 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 1st Season Limited Antlerless Seasons ........... 49 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 2nd Season Limited Antlerless Seasons .......... 50 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 2nd Split Season Limited Antlerless Seasons .... 52 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 3rd Season Limited Antlerless Seasons........... 53 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 3rd Split Season Limited Antlerless Seasons .... 55 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 4th Season Limited Antlerless Seasons ........... 55 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 4th Split Season Limited Antlerless Seasons .... 57 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 1st Season Limited Either-sex Seasons........... 57 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 2nd Season Limited Either-sex Seasons .......... 58 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 3rd Season Limited Either-sex Seasons .......... 59

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2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for 4th Season Limited Either-sex Seasons .......... 59 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Early PLO Seasons Only............................ 60 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for Late PLO Seasons Only ............................ 62 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Late Seasons (Does not include PLOs)....... 62 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Percent Success for All Late Seasons (Does not include PLOs) ....... 63 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Bosque del Oso Seasons ....................... 64 2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Damage, AFA and Auction/Raffle Hunts .... 64 2016 Elk Data Analysis Unit (DAU) Map

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Methodology

Revenue, licensing, and management of Colorado's deer, elk and pronghorn populations rely on information Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW) collects annually from hunters. Thousands of Colorado hunting license-holders voluntarily provide this information in what is referred to as the Big Game Harvest Survey. How this survey, and specifically the answers hunters provide to questionnaires supports wildlife management decisions and license setting is both complicated and not widely understood. However, season setting and license allocation do rely on the Big Game Harvest Survey, as do hunters to determine when and how to hunt big game.

Here is how it works. Each year, CPW contracts a third party vendor to conduct the Big Game Harvest Survey. Email/online and live operator telephone based questionnaires collect general harvest and participation information for all seasons and manners of take at a Data Analysis Unit (DAU) level. Each DAU represents a geographic area that a specific herd will utilize throughout the year and consists of one or more Game Management Units (GMU). GMUs are used to control hunter distribution in each DAU, which is accomplished through the use of established hunts and license setting. By collecting and analyzing hunter survey responses at the DAU level, CPW can increase precision in reporting and analysis.

In 2016, the sale of hunting and fishing licenses generated more than $75 million in revenue for CPW and more than 70% of this revenue came from deer, elk and pronghorn license sales. CPW sold approximately 342,000 deer, elk and pronghorn licenses for nearly 2,300 different hunts. Hunts held between August 15, 2016 and January 31, 2017 that were available to the general public through the limited license draws, Landowner Preference Program (LPP) vouchers, Over-TheCounter, and Leftover sales were included in the annual Big Game Harvest Survey. To ensure all hunts were included in the DAU estimates, the Big Game Harvest Survey used stratified random sampling of licenses based on hunt code, residency and/or hunter age group. This voluntary sample based survey allows CPW to estimate harvest more cost effectively and without the penalties for noncompliance necessary with a mandatory survey. In total, 328,538 licenses were sold for hunts included in the 2016 harvest survey resulting in 163,380 deer, elk and pronghorn licenses being sampled overall.

In addition, 222,257 licenses were sold for the 1,053 elk hunts included in the annual harvest survey. However, 4,157 of those licenses had invalid contact information at the time of sampling and were not included in the sample. The random sampling resulted in 109,941 elk licenses being selected for the annual harvest survey. At the end of data collection, 55,600 elk surveys had been completed resulting in a 51 percent overall response rate.

The harvest figures are estimates of harvest and participation extrapolated by comparing survey responses to licenses sold. The DAU estimates are followed by the standard error (SE) of the estimate, which is a measure of the precision of the estimate. The 95% Lower Confidence Limit (LCL) and 95% Upper Confidence Limit (UCL) columns provide the upper and lower values for the 95% confidence limits around the estimate. For example, we estimated total harvest of elk for DAU E-6 at 7,057 with a SE of 175. The 95% confidence interval estimates that between 6,722 and 7,408 elk were harvested in E-6 during the 2016 big game season.

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2016 Elk Hunters, Harvest and Recreation Days for All Seasons By DAU with 95% Confidence Intervals

DAU

E-1 E-2 E-3 E-4 E-6 E-7 E-8 E-9 E-10 E-11 E-12 E-13 E-14 E-15 E-16 E-17 E-18 E-19 E-20 E-21 E-22 E-23 E-24 E-25 E-26 E-27 E-28 E-30 E-31 E-32 E-33 E-34 E-35 E-38 E-39 E-40 E-41 E-43 E-47 E-51 E-52 E-53 E-55 E-99

estimate

384 20265 11321 5520 34065 6110 7711

920 8565 2070 3655 8518 17635 3242 5113 1831 2192 762 6510 615 2189 4844 11654 2906 3565 2929 1362 2828 9776 7016 6023 1838 4113 1492 1219 384 2230 5878

91 876 3521 321 129 1202

Total Hunters

SE LCL

2

380

174 19928

154 11022

55 5413

292 33497

97 5923

104 7509

33 858

128 8318

58 1959

75 3511

110 8305

193 17260

73 3102

97 4927

14 1804

18 2158

6

750

102 6313

11 594

0 2189

97 4658

145 11373

24 2859

73 3425

75 2785

0 1362

70 2694

132 9521

114 6797

102 5827

26 1788

71 3977

48 1400

16 1188

24 339

45 2144

91 5702

4

84

26 827

70 3387

24 278

0

129

41 1124

UCL

388 20608 11628 5629 34643 6304 7918

987 8819 2187 3805 8736 18019 3388 5307 1858 2227 774 6713 636 2189 5037 11942 2953 3711 3081 1362 2970 10037 7243 6226 1890 4254 1590 1251 435 2319 6059

99 929 3661 370 129 1286

estimate

235 5340 1356 689 7057 648 746 339 1744 436 387 879 2754 536 564 372 380 408 1578 326 679 394 2010 552 261 476 440 527 1583 828 1531 415 837 206 288

91 307 697 28 234 698 54 56 244

Total Harvest

SE LCL

9

218

112 5125

71 1224

56 588

175 6722

40 575

57 642

40 270

72 1609

27 386

30 333

53 782

105 2556

36 470

36 498

21 333

23 338

21 370

50 1484

16 296

31 622

30 340

72 1873

32 494

27 214

50 388

33 379

38 457

68 1456

48 739

55 1426

22 374

46 753

21 170

24 246

12

71

28 257

43 617

4

21

18 202

37 629

9

39

4

49

21 207

UCL

253 5565 1502 806 7408 731 867 426 1890 492 450 989 2968 611 638 417 429 450 1678 360 742 457 2156 618 320 584 509 608 1722 928 1643 461 931 251 339 116 366 787

36 271 775 74 63 287

Percent Success

61.2 26.4 12 12.5 20.7 10.6 9.7 36.9 20.4 21 10.6 10.3 15.6 16.5 11 20.3 17.4 53.6 24.2 53.1 31 8.1 17.2 19 7.3 16.3 32.3 18.6 16.2 11.8 25.4 22.6 20.4 13.8 23.7 23.6 13.8 11.9 30.3 26.7 19.8 16.8 43.1 20.3

Total Recreation Days

estimate SE

LCL

UCL

1674 88711 54289 31865 161463 32152 35909 9564 42322 9439 18122 42045 96786 17270 27926 11499 12927 4024 38417 2629 12846 28079 64060 15217 20238 18879 8843 16847 52358 39335 32613 9576 21035 10313 9326 1953 12330 31433

479 7227 20669 1759 1329 9490

54 1157 933 1149 1674 714 677 1581 816 357 509 793 1938 519 709 494 430 197 804 125 339 862 1014 215 549 1514 954 693 910 854 802 210 540 1103 783 165 312 609

57 700 605 166 63 861

1572 86473 52490 29691 158215 30784 34607 6933 40753 8764 17152 40519 93062 16283 26571 10572 12111 3655 36874 2394 12198 26440 62103 14801 19189 16136 7163 15543 50605 37696 31079 9174 20004 8368 7914 1656 11734 30262

380 5980 19516 1462 1212 7946

1783 91007 56149 34198 164777 33581 37261 13194 43952 10166 19148 43629 100659 18317 29350 12509 13799 4430 40026 2886 13528 29820 66079 15644 21343 22088 10919 18261 54172 41046 34223 9995 22120 12709 10991 2304 12957 32650

603 8734 21891 2116 1458 11334

Sample Rate

0.959 0.425 0.371 0.420 0.318 0.453 0.323 0.540 0.444 0.564 0.579 0.417 0.342 0.574 0.644 0.818 0.693 0.748 0.666 0.731 0.665 0.616 0.516 0.577 0.524 0.452 0.554 0.554 0.478 0.411 0.582 0.644 0.513 0.738 0.753 0.924 0.515 0.464 1.000 0.710 0.646 0.928

n/a 0.556

Response Rate

0.562 0.536 0.523 0.473 0.516 0.526 0.478 0.509 0.498 0.543 0.485 0.494 0.480 0.491 0.520 0.522 0.522 0.552 0.522 0.549 0.522 0.497 0.517 0.536 0.475 0.488 0.512 0.501 0.515 0.471 0.509 0.529 0.485 0.505 0.511 0.467 0.540 0.554 0.545 0.502 0.492 0.515

n/a 0.497

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2016 Elk Harvest, Hunters and Recreation Days for All Manners of Take

Unit

1 2 201 3 301 4 441 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 211 12 13 131 231 14 214 15 16 161 17 171 18 181 19 191 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 361 37 371 38 39 391 40 41 411

Bulls

12 39 47 320 172 646 413 352 198 188 86 32 49 581 365 815 278 84 121 253 317 202 139 88 84 70 231 82 119 39 125 221 299 478 248 147 107 97 240 24 49 175 87 174 70 84 125 16 95 73 68 70 15 167 128 80

Cows

17 82 60 438 162 584 286 183 241 55 76 19 245 616 210 594 329 169 130 118 332 225 136 74 156 78 337 36 37 18 182 189 260 385 231 99 105 99 231 53 55 191 71 154 50 66 48 27 127 59 52 54 68 193 200 88

Calves

0 4 7 20 19 24 17 23 29 0 17 0 23 45 24 89 37 13 13 12 35 20 19 16 3 10 56 5 0 2 30 36 36 27 11 20 19 5 20 10 9 36 25 13 3 17 8 0 24 8 0 7 7 17 11 6

Total Harvest

29 125 114 778 353 1,254 716 558 468 243 179 51 317 1,242 599 1,498 644 266 264 383 684 447 294 178 243 158 624 123 156 59 337 446 595 890 490 266 231 201 491 87 113 402 183 341 123 167 181 43 246 140 120 131 90 377 339 174

Total Percent

Total

Hunters Success Rec. Days

92

32

479

183

68

821

205

56

885

3,615

22

14,166

1,919

18

7,495

4,817

26

22,395

2,060

35

8,348

1,753

32

7,356

3,742

13

17,193

1,851

13

10,442

1,641

11

8,899

180

28

2,257

593

53

2,575

4,782

26

20,330

2,593

23

12,178

5,811

26

26,319

2,177

30

10,030

1,230

22

6,127

2,003

13

10,795

2,862

13

16,352

2,170

32

9,570

4,399

10

24,264

2,071

14

10,570

1,268

14

6,414

2,055

12

9,734

2,111

7

10,092

6,113

10

28,911

1,597

8

6,997

1,170

13

6,802

686

9

3,464

921

37

9,565

2,289

19

11,912

2,613

23

13,273

4,260

21

19,724

3,364

15

16,134

1,677

16

8,495

1,505

15

7,775

1,714

12

7,888

4,628

11

24,129

254

34

1,595

1,023

11

4,683

1,694

24

7,895

950

19

4,553

2,971

11

15,105

1,309

9

6,904

1,403

12

6,884

1,790

10

9,233

442

10

1,958

2,453

10

11,298

1,433

10

6,618

1,239

10

8,719

578

23

4,070

243

37

2,376

714

53

3,886

2,402

14

13,363

805

22

4,165

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