Quarterly Market Detail - Q1 2016 Single Family Homes

Quarterly Market Detail - Q1 2016 Single Family Homes Florida

Summary Statistics

Closed Sales Paid in Cash Median Sale Price Average Sale Price Dollar Volume Median Percent of Original List Price Received Median Time to Contract Median Time to Sale

New Pending Sales New Listings Pending Inventory Inventory (Active Listings) Months Supply of Inventory

Q1 2016 57,913 20,133 $203,500 $285,447 $16.5 Billion

95.5%

53 Days 102 Days 73,191 94,266 43,897 100,794

4.5

Q1 2015 57,742 23,724 $182,000 $266,453 $15.4 Billion

94.4%

64 Days 108 Days 78,881 90,180 46,156 103,706

5.0

Percent Change Year-over-Year

0.3% -15.1% 11.8% 7.1% 7.4%

1.2%

-17.2% -5.6% -7.2% 4.5% -4.9% -2.8% -10.0%

Closed Sales

The number of sales transactions which closed during the quarter

Economists' note : Closed Sales are one of the simplest--yet most important--indicators for the residential real estate market. When comparing Closed Sales across markets of different sizes, we recommend comparing the percent changes in sales rather than the number of sales. Closed Sales (and many other market metrics) are affected by seasonal cycles, so actual trends are more accurately represented by year-over-year changes (i.e. comparing a quarter's sales to the amount of sales in the same quarter in the previous year), rather than changes from one quarter to the next.

Quarter

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013

Closed Sales

57,913 61,044 72,144 75,691 57,742 60,791 63,785 66,079 49,845 53,343 59,697 63,153 49,267

Percent Change Year-over-Year

0.3% 0.4% 13.1% 14.5% 15.8% 14.0% 6.8% 4.6% 1.2% 1.6% 15.5% 15.1% 11.9%

80,000

2012

2013

2014

2015

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Closed Sales

Produced by Florida REALTORS? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Monday, May 9, 2016. Historical data revised on Friday, February 26, 2016. Dollar Volume revised April 15, 2016. Next quarterly data release is Wednesday, August 10, 2016.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q1 2016 Single Family Homes Florida

Cash Sales

The number of Closed Sales during the quarter in which buyers exclusively paid in cash

Economists' note : Cash Sales can be a useful indicator of the extent to which investors are participating in the market. Why? Investors are far more likely to have the funds to purchase a home available up front, whereas the typical homebuyer requires a mortgage or some other form of financing. There are, of course, many possible exceptions, so this statistic should be interpreted with care.

Quarter

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013

Cash Sales

20,133 21,360 24,080 26,486 23,724 23,750 24,509 27,359 23,510 23,097 24,890 28,886 24,461

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-15.1% -10.1% -1.8% -3.2% 0.9% 2.8% -1.5% -5.3% -3.9% -5.7% 11.3% 16.7% 15.1%

40,000

2012

2013

2014

2015

30,000

20,000

10,000

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Cash Sales

Cash Sales as a Percentage of Closed Sales

The percentage of Closed Sales during the quarter which were Cash Sales

Economists' note : This statistic is simply another way of viewing Cash Sales. The remaining percentages of Closed Sales (i.e. those not paid fully in cash) each quarter involved some sort of financing, such as mortgages, owner/seller financing, assumed loans, etc.

Quarter

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013

Percent of Closed Sales Paid in Cash

34.8% 35.0% 33.4% 35.0% 41.1% 39.1% 38.4% 41.4% 47.2% 43.3% 41.7% 45.7% 49.6%

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-15.3% -10.5% -13.0% -15.5% -12.9% -9.7% -7.9% -9.4% -4.8% -7.1% -3.7% 1.3% 2.7%

2012 60%

2013

2014

2015

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Pct. of Closed Sales Paid in Cash

Produced by Florida REALTORS? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Monday, May 9, 2016. Historical data revised on Friday, February 26, 2016. Dollar Volume revised April 15, 2016. Next quarterly data release is Wednesday, August 10, 2016.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q1 2016 Single Family Homes Florida

Median Sale Price

The median sale price reported for the quarter (i.e. 50% of sales were above and 50% of sales were below)

Economists' note : Median Sale Price is our preferred summary statistic for price activity because, unlike Average Sale Price, Median Sale Price is not sensitive to high sale prices for small numbers of homes that may not be characteristic of the market area. Keep in mind that median price trends over time are not always solely caused by changes in the general value of local real estate. Median sale price only reflects the values of the homes that sold each quarter, and the mix of the types of homes that sell can change over time.

Quarter

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013

Median Sale Price

$203,500 $200,000 $199,900 $200,000 $182,000 $180,000 $181,445 $180,000 $168,000 $170,000 $175,000 $170,000 $154,000

Percent Change Year-over-Year

11.8% 11.1% 10.2% 11.1% 8.3% 5.9% 3.7% 5.9% 9.1% 13.3% 19.0% 14.9% 14.1%

$250K

2012

2013

2014

2015

$200K

$150K

$100K

$50K

$0K Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Median Sale Price

Average Sale Price

The average sale price reported for the quarter (i.e. total sales in dollars divided by the number of sales)

Economists' note : Usually, we prefer Median Sale Price over Average Sale Price as a summary statistic for home prices. However, Average Sale Price does have its uses--particularly when it is analyzed alongside the Median Sale Price. For one, the relative difference between the two statistics can provide some insight into the market for higher-end homes in an area.

Quarter

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013

Average Sale Price

$285,447 $277,627 $271,573 $286,407 $266,453 $256,960 $256,639 $271,719 $256,477 $244,362 $248,092 $260,202 $230,968

Percent Change Year-over-Year

7.1% 8.0% 5.8% 5.4% 3.9% 5.2% 3.4% 4.4% 11.0% 7.7% 14.8% 12.0% 12.7%

$400K

2012

2013

2014

2015

$300K

$200K

$100K

$0K Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Average Sale Price

Produced by Florida REALTORS? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Monday, May 9, 2016. Historical data revised on Friday, February 26, 2016. Dollar Volume revised April 15, 2016. Next quarterly data release is Wednesday, August 10, 2016.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q1 2016 Single Family Homes Florida

Dollar Volume

The sum of the sale prices for all sales which closed during the quarter

Economists' note : Dollar Volume is simply the sum of all sale prices in a given time period, and can quickly be calculated by multiplying Closed Sales by Average Sale Price. It is a strong indicator of the health of the real estate industry in a market, and is of particular interest to real estate professionals, investors, analysts, and government agencies. Potential home sellers and home buyers, on the other hand, will likely be better served by paying attention to trends in the two components of Dollar Volume (i.e. sales and prices) individually.

Quarter

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013

Dollar Volume

$16.5 Billion $16.9 Billion $19.6 Billion $21.7 Billion $15.4 Billion $15.6 Billion $16.4 Billion $18.0 Billion $12.8 Billion $13.0 Billion $14.8 Billion $16.4 Billion $11.4 Billion

Percent Change Year-over-Year

7.4% 8.5% 19.7% 20.7% 20.3% 19.8% 10.5% 9.3% 12.3% 9.3% 32.7% 28.9% 26.1%

$25 B

2012

2013

2014

2015

$20 B

$15 B

$10 B

$5 B

$0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Dollar Volume

Median Percent of Original List Price Received

The median of the sale price (as a percentage of the original list price) across all properties selling during the quarter

Economists' note : The Median Percent of Original List Price Received is useful as an indicator of market recovery, since it typically rises as buyers realize that the market may be moving away from them and they need to match the selling price (or better it) in order to get a contract on the house. This is usually the last measure to indicate a market has shifted from down to up, so it is what we would call a lagging indicator.

Quarter

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013

Med. Pct. of Orig. List Price Received 95.5% 95.5% 95.6% 95.3% 94.4% 94.5% 94.7% 94.4% 94.0% 94.9% 95.4% 95.0% 93.9%

Percent Change Year-over-Year

1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% -0.4% -0.7% -0.6% 0.1% 1.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5%

120%

2012

2013

2014

2015

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Med. Pct. of Orig. List Price Received

Produced by Florida REALTORS? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Monday, May 9, 2016. Historical data revised on Friday, February 26, 2016. Dollar Volume revised April 15, 2016. Next quarterly data release is Wednesday, August 10, 2016.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q1 2016 Single Family Homes Florida

Median Time to Contract

The median number of days between the listing date and contract date for all Closed Sales during the quarter

Economists' note : Like Time to Sale, Time to Contract is a measure of the length of the home selling process calculated for sales which closed during the quarter. The difference is that Time to Contract measures the number of days between the initial listing of a property and the signing of the contract which eventually led to the closing of the sale. When the gap between Median Time to Contract and Median Time to Sale grows, it is usually a sign of longer closing times and/or declining numbers of cash sales.

Quarter

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013

Median Time to Contract 53 Days 48 Days 48 Days 51 Days 64 Days 58 Days 56 Days 57 Days 65 Days 52 Days 50 Days 55 Days 65 Days

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-17.2% -17.2% -14.3% -10.5% -1.5% 11.5% 12.0% 3.6% 0.0% -18.8% -24.2% -22.5% -22.6%

2012 100

2013

2014

2015

80

60

40

20

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Median Time to Contract

Median Time to Sale

The median number of days between the listing date and closing date for all Closed Sales during the quarter

Economists' note : Time to Sale is a measure of the length of the home selling process, calculated as the number of days between the initial listing of a property and the closing of the sale. Median Time to Sale is the amount of time the "middle" property selling this quarter was on the market. That is, 50% of homes selling this quarter took less time to sell, and 50% of homes took more time to sell. Median Time to Sale gives a more accurate picture than Average Time to Sale, which can be skewed upward by small numbers of properties taking an abnormally long time to sell.

Quarter

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013

2012 150

2013

2014

Median Time to Sale

102 Days 95 Days 93 Days 96 Days 108 Days 102 Days 101 Days 102 Days 111 Days 99 Days 100 Days 104 Days 117 Days

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-5.6% -6.9% -7.9% -5.9% -2.7% 3.0% 1.0% -1.9% -5.1% -16.8% -17.4% -14.8% -13.3%

2015

Median Time to Sale

100

50

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Produced by Florida REALTORS? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Monday, May 9, 2016. Historical data revised on Friday, February 26, 2016. Dollar Volume revised April 15, 2016. Next quarterly data release is Wednesday, August 10, 2016.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q1 2016 Single Family Homes Florida

New Pending Sales

The number of listed properties that went under contract during the quarter

Economists' note : Because of the typical length of time it takes for a sale to close, economists consider Pending Sales to be a decent indicator of potential future Closed Sales. It is important to bear in mind, however, that not all Pending Sales will be closed successfully. So, the effectiveness of Pending Sales as a future indicator of Closed Sales is susceptible to changes in market conditions such as the availability of financing for homebuyers and the inventory of distressed properties for sale.

Quarter

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013

New Pending Sales

73,191 59,898 71,776 81,910 78,881 62,074 70,949 77,036 71,592 58,649 67,404 77,729 73,915

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-7.2% -3.5% 1.2% 6.3% 10.2% 5.8% 5.3% -0.9% -3.1% -5.1% 15.4% 28.2% 27.1%

100,000

2012

2013

2014

2015

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Pending Sales

New Listings

The number of properties put onto the market during the quarter

Economists' note : New Listings tend to rise in delayed response to increasing prices, so they are often seen as a lagging indicator of market health. As prices rise, potential sellers raise their estimations of value--and in the most recent cycle, rising prices have freed up many potential sellers who were previously underwater on their mortgages. Note that in our calculations, we take care to not include properties that were recently taken off the market and quickly relisted, since these are not really new listings.

Quarter

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013

New Listings

94,266 72,966 82,654 89,644 90,180 72,507 81,479 84,989 84,235 71,065 79,112 78,056 76,196

Percent Change Year-over-Year

4.5% 0.6% 1.4% 5.5% 7.1% 2.0% 3.0% 8.9% 10.6% 15.3% 17.8% 13.0% 6.0%

100,000

2012

2013

2014

2015

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

New Listings

Produced by Florida REALTORS? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Monday, May 9, 2016. Historical data revised on Friday, February 26, 2016. Dollar Volume revised April 15, 2016. Next quarterly data release is Wednesday, August 10, 2016.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q1 2016 Single Family Homes Florida

Inventory (Active Listings)

The number of property listings active at the end of the quarter

Economists' note : There are a number of ways to define and calculate Inventory. Here, we simply count the number of active listings on the last day of the quarter, and hold this number to compare with the same quarter the following year. Inventory rises when New Listings are outpacing the number of listings that go off-market (regardless of whether they actually sell). Likewise, it falls when New Listings aren't keeping up with the rate at which homes are going off-market.

Quarter

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013

150,000

2012

2013

2014

Inventory

100,794 93,680 95,052 98,570 103,706 102,208 103,682 104,155 104,925 100,661 95,736 87,970 91,181

2015

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-2.8% -8.3% -8.3% -5.4% -1.2% 1.5% 8.3% 18.4% 15.1% 9.1% -9.2% -23.7% -27.5%

Inventory

100,000

50,000

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Months Supply of Inventory

An estimate of the number of months it will take to deplete the current Inventory given recent sales rates

Economists' note : MSI is a useful indicator of market conditions. The benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Anything higher is traditionally a buyers' market, and anything lower is a sellers' market. There is no single accepted way of calculating MSI. A common method is to divide current Inventory by the most recent month's Closed Sales count, but this count is a usually poor predictor of future Closed Sales due to seasonal cycles. To eliminate seasonal effects, we use the 12-month average of monthly Closed Sales instead.

Quarter

Q1 2016 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q2 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013 Q2 2013 Q1 2013

Months Supply

4.5 4.2 4.3 4.6 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.9 5.3

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-10.0% -17.6% -18.9% -16.4% -10.7% -5.6% 3.9% 12.2% 5.7% -1.8% -21.5% -32.9% -34.6%

2012 10.0

2013

2014

2015

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Months Supply of Inventory

Produced by Florida REALTORS? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Monday, May 9, 2016. Historical data revised on Friday, February 26, 2016. Dollar Volume revised April 15, 2016. Next quarterly data release is Wednesday, August 10, 2016.

Quarterly Market Detail - Q1 2016 Single Family Homes Florida

Closed Sales by Sale Price

The number of sales transactions which closed during the quarter

Economists' note: Closed Sales are one of the simplest--yet most important--indicators for the residential real estate market. When comparing Closed Sales across markets of different sizes, we recommend comparing the percent changes in sales rather than the number of sales. Closed Sales (and many other market metrics) are affected by seasonal cycles, so actual trends are more accurately represented by year-over-year changes (i.e. comparing a quarter's sales to the amount of sales in the same month in the previous year), rather than changes from one quarter to the next.

12,000

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0 Less than $50,000

$50,000 - $100,000 - $150,000 - $200,000 - $250,000 $99,999 $149,999 $199,999 $249,999 $299,999

Sale Price Less than $50,000 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $299,999 $300,000 - $399,999 $400,000 - $599,999 $600,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 or more

$300,000 - $400,000 $399,999 $599,999

Closed Sales

2,173 6,032 9,450 10,678 8,191 6,105 6,915 4,733 2,190 1,446

Percent Change Year-over-Year

-39.4% -23.5% -10.5% 9.7% 17.9% 12.4% 15.8% 12.8% 8.0% 3.5%

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

$600,000 - $1,000,000 or

$999,999

more

Closed Sales

Median Time to Contract by Sale Price

The median number of days between the listing date and contract date for all Closed Sales during the quarter

Economists' note : Like Time to Sale, Time to Contract is a measure of the length of the home selling process calculated for sales which closed during the quarter. The difference is that Time to Contract measures the number of days between the initial listing of a property and the signing of the contract which eventually led to the closing of the sale. When the gap between Median Time to Contract and Median Time to Sale grows, it is usually a sign of longer closing times and/or declining numbers of cash sales.

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Less than $50,000 - $100,000 - $150,000 - $200,000 - $250,000 -

$50,000

$99,999 $149,999 $199,999 $249,999 $299,999

Sale Price Less than $50,000 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $299,999 $300,000 - $399,999 $400,000 - $599,999 $600,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 or more

$300,000 - $400,000 $399,999 $599,999

Median Time to Contract 56 Days 42 Days 42 Days 46 Days 53 Days 56 Days 64 Days 73 Days 94 Days 146 Days

Percent Change Year-over-Year

3.7% -26.3% -23.6% -20.7% -19.7% -15.2% -14.7% -14.1% -9.6% 0.7%

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

$600,000 - $1,000,000 or

$999,999

more

Median Time to Contract

Produced by Florida REALTORS? with data provided by Florida's multiple listing services. Statistics for each month compiled from MLS feeds on the 15th day of the following month. Data released on Monday, May 9, 2016. Historical data revised on Friday, February 26, 2016. Dollar Volume revised April 15, 2016. Next quarterly data release is Wednesday, August 10, 2016.

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