An Analysis of the Potential Environmental Impact of



Facilitating Sustainable Innovations: Sustainable Innovation as a Tool for Regional Development

Co-organized by The Greening of Industry Network,

The Cartesius Institute, and The Province of Fryslân

June 26-28, 2008, Leeuwarden, The Netherlands

An Analysis of the Potential Environmental Impact of

China-Thailand Kraft Pulp Project: Scenarios analysis

Warit Jawjit

Faculty of Science and Technology (Saiyai),

Rajamangala University of Technology Srivijaya,

Tumyai,

Thungsong,

Nakhon si thammarat 80110,

Thailand

Tel: +66-1-9791125

Fax: +66-75-773133

e-mail: jwarit@

Abstract

This study explored the potential environmental impact of a Kraft pulp project which is a joint venture between the Chinese and Thailand government (so-called “Chino-Thai project”). In 2000, Thailand’s Cabinet gave provisional approval for this project, which China would like to use area in Thailand in order to plant eucalyptus and build pulp factories for exporting the Kraft pulp to China. However, this project was delayed due to people’s opposition. Recently, a newly elected Thai government would like to continue this project again.

Five environmental problems (global warming, acidification, eutrophication, smog and human toxicity) and overall environmental impact were investigated in five different scenarios including “Reference (current) scenario (REF)”, “Business-As-Usual scenario (BAU)”, “Total Chlorine Free scenario (TCF)”, “Zero discharge scenario (ZERO)” and “Only Eucalyptus scenario (EUCA)”(assumed that the final product of this project is harvested eucalyptus not pulp). An integrated environmental assessment model recently developed for analysing environmental impact of Kraft pulp industry was used in this study.

The results indicated that the overall environmental impact of BAU, TCF and ZERO scenarios were about 85%, 70% and 60%, respectively, higher than that of in REF scenario. In particular, acidification and eutrophication were found to be the most important problems in REF and BAU, because they have the largest share (30% each) in the overall environmental impact. It can be observed that if the total chlorine-free bleaching technique (TCF scenario) and zero-discharge strategy (ZERO scenario) would be applied in this project, the environmental impact associated with eutrophication would be reduced by about 10% and 90%, respectively, relative to BAU scenario. In case of EUCA scenario, it was found that the overall environmental impact of this scenario was about 15% higher than that of in REF scenario, but it resulted in 40% reduction of the overall environmental impact relative to BAU scenario (producing both eucalyptus and pulp).

Key words: Chino-Thai project, Kraft pulp, Scenario analysis, Integrated assessment model, Thailand

1. Introduction

In February 2000, Thailand’s Cabinet gave provisional approval for a US$ 1 billion joint venture between the Chinese government and Thailand’s largest pulp and paper company. This project was called in short as “Chino-Thai project”. China proposed to use area of 112,000 ha in Thailand for eucalyptus plantation, and to build pulp mills that will export 700,000 ton/year of Kraft pulp to China. Thailand’s Royal Forestry Department (RFD) will provide 40,000 ha of “degraded” forest reserves and the Agricultural Land Reform Office (ALRO) another 80,000 ha for the project.

This Chinese investment project, however, led to the opposition from villagers and some non-governmental organization. They were fighting to prevent the 120,000 ha eucalyptus plantation project that would lead to widespread forest clearance and threatens the farming livelihoods of hundreds of rural communities in eight eastern and northeastern provinces in Thailand (Rajesh, 2000). Since then, this project was delayed. Recently, the newly elected government would like to continue this project again.

An economic feasibility study of this project studied by Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) indicated that this project is economically feasible, However the OAE suggested that if the Chino- Thai project aims to produce 700,000 ton/year, the eucalyptus plantation area should be increased form 112,000 ha to 200,00 ha in (OAE, 2001). According to ecological effect of eucalyptus plantation, the Royal Forestry department concluded that monoculture in large area may adversely affect the biodiversity, and recommended that intercropping should be applied in the project area. Petmak (1999) also indicated that land use and selection of area for eucalyptus plantation are very important factors for sustainable development of this project. However, the study on environmental quality of this project has not been yet studied (Figure 1).

[pic]

Figure 1 Current studies on the Chino- Thai Kraft pulp project.

The objective of this study is therefore to analyze the potential environmental impact of this project. Scenario analysis is used as a tool to analyze the impact, which is calculated by the integrated assessment model recently developed for the Kraft pulp industry.

2. Scope of the study

In this study Kraft pulp industry consists of two subsystems: eucalyptus plantation subsystem (including eucalyptus breeding, eucalyptus plantation, eucalyptus harvest and eucalyptus transportation) and Kraft pulp production subsystem (including energy generation unit, pulp production unit, chemical recovery unit and wastewater treatment unit) (Figure 2). Five environmental problems: global warming, acidification, eutrophication, smog, and human toxicity were taken into account. The emissions related to these problems include CO2, CH4 and N2O (global warming), SO2 and NOx (acidification), COD, PO43-, NO3-, total N and total P (eutrophication), NMVOC, CO , CH4, and NOx (smog) and particulates, AOX, TRS, SO2 and NOx (human toxicity). The model (describe later) was run to calculate emissions of these pollutants, and then aggregate to the impact score of each environmental problem and the overall environmental impact (single score).

The potential environmental impact associated with emissions generated from activities in the eucalyptus plantation, transportation of harvested eucalyptus to the mills in Thailand and Kraft pulp production are included. Emissions generated from raw material productions and transportation of the Kraft pulp to China were excluded. Costs of the options applied to reduce the impact were also excluded, because of insufficiency information.

3. Methodology

Two important tools used in this study are 1) Scenario analysis and 2) integrated environmental assessment model developed for Kraft pulp industry (Jawjit et al., 2007). Each tool is described in detail in the following.

3.1 Scenario analysis

Scenario analysis is an important tool used in environmental systems analysis, and can be defined as typical descriptions of alternative images of the future, created from mental maps or models that reflect different perspectives on past, present and future developments (Alcamo, 2001). Scenario analysis typically results in a set of answers to “what if” type of questions, illustrating the consequences of a range of alternative decisions (Schwarz, 1997). In this study, it will be used as a tool to provide possible pictures of the potential environmental impact of the Chino-Thai project.

A recently developed model will be used to analyze a number of scenarios, reflecting different strategies to reduce the environmental impact. This model is described in Jawjit et al. (2007) and summarized in the section 3.2.

Five scenarios were developed, meant to provide a view of possible changes in the environmental performance of the Chino-Thai project. For each scenario emissions are quantified for compounds that contribute to five environmental problems: global warming, acidification, eutrophication, smog, and human toxicity.

[pic]

Figure 2 System boundary (indicated by double dotted line) of the study including two subsystems: eucalyptus forestry and Kraft pulp production

An important driver of the scenarios is different pollution abatement policies assumed to be implemented. The production capacity of the Chino-Thai project and pollution reduction options was used as input to the model presented by Jawjit et al (2007). These inputs reflect different views on environmental management of the Chino-Thai project. Our base year is 2006, which is the most recent year for which adequate data is available. The Kraft pulp production capacity for the year 2006 is 795,600 ADT (air-dried ton of pulp) per year. In case of existence of the Chino-Thai project the Kraft pulp production capacity is 1,495,600 ADT/ year (700,000 ADT from the project plus 795,600 ADT from current Kraft pulp production capacity).

The scenarios differ with respect to the environmental policy assumed, or, in other words, with respect to the reduction options assumed to be implemented. In the following, more detail on assumptions on eucalyptus forestry and Kraft pulp production for each of the scenarios in are described

3.1.1 Reference scenario (REF)

The Reference scenario (REF) is a reference case which reflects current environmental management and current pollution reduction option applied in the Kraft pulp industry in Thailand (year 2006). The main objective of the REF scenario is to serve as a basis for comparison with the Business-as-Usual scenario (BAU). In the REF scenario, production capacity of the Kraft pulp in Thailand in 2006 and the reduction options applied in the same year are inputs in the model. The REF scenario will thus help us analyze the current potential environmental impact caused by this industry and contributions of each environmental problems included in the study.

The REF scenario reflects the current environmental management of the Kraft pulp mills in Thailand, which is influenced by two important environmental regulations including 1) the 1992 National environmental quality promotion and preservation Act, and 2) the 1992 Factory Act. In line with these acts, the mills focus on controlling SO2, NOx, CO, particulates, COD. Several options to reduce emissions of these pollutants are applied including, for example, scrubbers (for SO2, NOx control), electrostatic precipitators (for particulate control), and aerobic wastewater treatment. In addition, losses of chlorinated compounds measured as AOX (adsorbable organic halide), which are not mentioned in the current Thai environmental laws have also been controlled since the last decade, because of concern on environmentally friendly pulp in the international market. Technical options are applied to reduce AOX emission from bleaching including elementary chlorine free (ECF) bleaching, which is applied to replace elementary chlorine bleaching used in the beginning of the nineties, and additional pulp digesting processes (Vigneswaran et al., 1999).

3.1.2 Business-as-Usual scenario (BAU)

In the Business-as-Usual scenario it is assumed that the current level of environmental management in the Kraft pulp industry in Thailand will be also applied in the Chino-Thai project. The BAU scenario reflects the most likely future environmental impact caused by this industry, in case new environmental policies either do not exist or do not have a discernable influence on the environment. The BAU scenario is based on the pollution abatement options that are currently applied (technology used in the year 2006) and current environment control policies (the same as REF scenario). The BAU scenario will thus help us analyze trends in the environmental problems generated by this project if no additional abatement technologies and/or no new control policies are implemented.

3.1.3 Total Chlorine Free scenario (TCF)

In the Total Chlorine Free scenario it is assumed that bleaching agents applied in the Kraft pulp production of the Chino-Thai project are chlorine-free substances. Besides chlorine-free bleaching agents, we assume that other pollution reduction options are the same with those in the BAU scenario. The TCF scenario will help us analyze the contribution of bleaching agents on the overall environmental impact.

3.1.4 Zero Discharge scenario (ZERO)

In the Zero Discharge scenario it is assumed that treated effluent from the Kraft pulp mills in the Chino-Thai project does not discharge to the environment. The ZERO scenario will help us analyze the contribution of wastewater management on the overall management. We assume that other pollution reduction options are the same with those in the BAU scenario.

3.1.5 Only Eucalyptus scenario (EUCA)

In the Only Ecualyptus scenario we assume that the final product of the Chino-Thai project is harvested eucalyptus, and thus only activities in eucalyptus plantation are included in the analysis. The EUCA scenario may be considered as an unrealistic scenario, because the real final product of the project is the bleached Kraft pulp. The purpose of this scenario is to serve as a basis for comparison with the REF scenario and the BAU scenario.

3.2 Model description

The model is aimed to quantify emissions (E) and environmental impacts (M) caused by Kraft pulp industry in Thailand, and to estimate the effect of combinations of pollution reduction options (j) on the environmental impact and their associated costs (C) (Box 1) (Jawjit et al., 2007). The model includes two subsystems, which are a eucalyptus forestry subsystem and the Kraft pulp production subsystem. The method applied follows an ‘emission factor’ approach. Thus for each compound released from selected activities (A) an emission factor (F) is identified reflecting the emission per unit of activity. The model also takes into account possible side effects of emission reduction options on other emissions. These side effects can be both positive (reducing emissions) or negative (increasing emissions).

Box 1 Mathematical formulations of the model (Jawjit et al., 2007) [1].

Activity level: [pic] (1)

[pic][pic] (2)

Emissions: [pic] (3)

[pic] (4)

[pic] (5)

Impact: [pic] (6)

[pic] (7)

[pic] (8)

[pic] (9)

Cost: [pic] (10)

[pic] (11)

[pic] (12)

[pic] (13)

|Where | | |

|( |= |index for type of activity: fertilizer use, chlorinated bleaching agent use, lime calcination, bunker oil |

| | |use, biomass burning, and pulp production |

|( |= |index of type of pollutant emitted: CO2 , CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, PO43-, COD, P, CO, VOC, TRS, AOX and |

| | |particulates |

|( |= |index for type of environmental impact considered: global warming, acidification, eutrophication, smog, |

| | |toxicity and the production of waste |

|j |= |index for reduction option |

|J |= |combination of options: a subset of all available options |

|ref |= |assumptions for reference situation |

|A( |= |level of activity ( (unit activity/ year) |

| | | |

|A(,ref |= |level of activity ( in the reference situation assuming no pollution control ( activity/ year) |

|C |= |total annual cost of reduction options ($/year) |

|CIj |= |annual investment costs of option j ($/ year) |

|COj |= |fixed operation cost of option j ($/ year) |

|CV |= |variable costs of all applied options ($/ year) |

|CF(,( |= |impact factor for environmental problem ( due to emissions of compound ( (impact unit/ kg of compound ()|

|E( |= |total emission of compound ( (kg / year) |

|E(,( |= |emission of compound ( due to activity ( (kg/ year) |

|ES ε, j, α |= |emission of compound released as a side effect of the application of option j aimed to reduce the level of|

| | |another compound ε |

|F(,( |= |emission factor for compound ( related to activity ( |

|FS ε, j, α |= |emission factor for compound ε released as a side effect of the application of option j aimed to reduce |

| | |the level of another compound ε |

|Ij |= |investment costs of option j ($/option j) |

|ltj |= |lifetime of option j (years) |

|M |= |total environmental impact |

|M( |= |total impact ( (impact unit/ton/year) |

|Mnμ |= |Normalised impact for environmental problem μ (fraction) |

|M(,( |= |impact ( for emissions of compound ((impact unit/ year) |

|Nμ |= |Normalisation factor for environmental problem μ (impact unit/year) |

|Pα |= |price of activity α ($/ unit activity) |

|PP |= |Kraft pulp production capacity (ADt / year) |

|Vμ |= |Valuation factor for environmental problem μ |

|q |= |interest rate (%/100 / year) |

|fj |= |fixed percentage of investment of maintenance of option j (fraction) |

|rf (,j |= |reduction factor for activity ( by option j (fraction) |

|rf(, (j |= |reduction factor for emissions ( due to activity ( by option j (fraction) |

Thirty six reduction options are included in the model and categorized into 14 independent groups (see detail in Jawjit et al. (2007)). This enables us to investigate the effect of combinations of reduction options, which can affect the activity levels (A) or emission factors (F). A multiplicative approach is chosen when more than one reduction option is assumed to be applied simultaneously, following Pluimers (2001). Thus their combined effect is calculated as the product of their respective reduction factors. The potential environmental impact (M) of the emissions is calculated from the total amount emitted per time unit (year) and classification factors (CF) of the compounds reflecting their relative importance in specific environmental problems (μ) including global warming, acidification, eutrophication, smog, human toxicity and the production of solid waste. The overall environmental impact is evaluated by use of multi-criteria analysis, in which an overall evaluation is performed on the basis of different criteria (CIFOR, 1999: Pineda-Henson et al., 2002) that are weighted using four different set of valuation factors (V) (Hermann et al., 2007). In the model the ‘Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)’ is used to generate valuation factors for each environmental problem. The details of the calculation procedure are described in Jawjit et al., (2007). The annual costs of the reduction options include investment costs (CIj), operating costs (COj) and variable costs (CV). The methodology of cost calculation is based on Klaassen (1991), Cofala and Syri (1998) and Pluimers (2001).The annual investment costs take into account the interest rate (q) and the lifetime of the reduction option (ltj). Operating costs may include maintenance and administrative costs. Variable costs depend on the increase or reduction of costs of activities due to the application of reduction options. As mentioned above, cost of the options was not included in this study.

It is worth noting to present the result of previous study about contribution of environmental problems to the overall environmental impact (Jawjit, 2006) (Figure 3).

The overall environmental impact is expressed as one environmental indicator (M), calculated by weighing the different environmental problems in a multi-criteria analysis (MCA). MCA is typically used for evaluation of problems where several criteria, such as different environmental problems, have to be taken into account.

[pic]

Figure 3 Contribution of different environmental problems to the overall environmental impact of Kraft pulp industry in Thailand (Jawjit, 2006).

Figure 3 shows that eutrophication and acidification have the largest share (35% each) in the overall environmental impact of the Kraft pulp industry in Thailand. Smog, global warming, and human toxicity are found to be less important contributors, given their relatively small share in the overall environmental impact (8%, 4% and 1%, respectively). These results indicate that to reduce the overall environmental impact of Kraft pulp industry in Thailand, one could best focus on reducing eutrophication, and acidification.

4. Results and discussion

The model was run to calculate emissions of pollutants (E() (equation 5), environmental impact score of each included environmental problems (Mµ) (equation 7) and a single-score overall environmental impact (M) (equation 9). To keep a brief paper, only the result on environmental impact scores and the single-score overall environmental impact are presented here.

4.1 Reference scenario (REF) and Business-as –usual scenario (BAU)

In this section the results for the REF scenario (current situation) and BAU scenario (existence of the Chino-Thai project) were presented. In term of the overall environmental impact, it was found that the impact of the BAU scenario was almost two folds higher than that of the REF scenario (Figure 4). This means that if the Chino-Thai project is carried out, the overall environmental impact of the Kraft pulp industry in Thailand would increase by about two times. Likewise, emissions of pollutants associated with five environmental problems were calculated to increase emissions by about two-times (Figure 5).

[pic]

Figure 4 The overall environmental impact (M) of the Thai Kraft pulp industry for five scenarios.

4.2 Business-as-Usual scenario (BAU), Total Chlorine Free scenario (TCF) and Zero discharge (ZERO)

The purpose of results presentation of these three scenarios in this section is to investigate the effect of two environmental strategies (including application of total chlorine free bleaching agent, and no wastewater discharge to the environment) applied in the Chino-Thai project compared with current environmental management of Kraft pulp industry in Thailand. Current Kraft pulp bleaching process is ECF (elementary chlorine free). This process results in emission of AOX (adsorbable organic halide) which associates with human toxic substance. In TCF scenario, TCF bleaching agent was assumed to replace ECF bleaching agent, and it was found that emissions of human toxic substances was calculated to reduce by about 20%. However, it was observed that the TCF scenario was calculated to reduce the overall environmental impact (M) only about 5%. This is because human toxicity is a minor contributor (1%) to the overall environmental impact of the Kraft pulp industry in Thailand (Figure 3). Therefore, environmental strategy aimed to reduce human toxic substance (including AOX) would result in small reduction of the overall environmental impact. Nevertheless, as a side effect of TCF application, COD effluent was also reduced, and emissions of eutrophying compound was calculated to reduce about 10% relative to the BAU scenario.

In case of the ZERO scenario, which aims to not discharge effluent to the environment, emissions of eutrophying compounds were calculated to reduce by about 40% relative to the BAU scenario. Since eutrophication is a major contributor (35%) to the overall impact of Kraft pulp industry in Thailand, the ZERO scenario resulted in 15% reduction of the overall environmental impact relative to the BAU scenario. Moreover, the zero-discharge or closed-cycle strategy also reduces AOX in the effluent. This resulted in 20% reduction of emissions of human toxic substances.

[pic]

Figure 5 Emissions of greenhouse gases (indicated by GWP: Global Warming Potential as ton CO2-eq), acidifying compounds (indicated by AP: Acidification Potential as ton SO2-eq), eutrophying compounds (indicated by NP: Nutrification Potential as ton PO43- -eq), smog precursors (indicated by as POCP: Photochemical Ozone Creation Potential as ton C2H4-eq) and toxic compounds to human (indicated by HT: Human Toxicity as ton C6H4Cl2-eq) for five scenarios included in the study.

* To improve the readability of the figure, emissions of greenhouse gases are multiplied by 0.01.

It can also be observed that emissions of greenhouse gases, acidifying compounds and smog precursors are the same for the BAU, the TCF and the ZERO scenarios. This means that environmental strategies applied in the TCF and the ZERO scenarios do not have any effect on global warming, acidification and smog.

4.3 Business-as-Usual scenario (BAU) and Only Eucalyptus scenario (EUCA)

In this section comparison of the results from the BAU scenario and the EUCA scenario is presented. In case that the final product of the Chino-Thai project is assumed to be harvested eucalyptus, the EUCA scenario was calculated to reduce the overall environmental impact (M) by about 40% relative to the BAU scenario (Kraft pulp as the final product). It was also observed that the overall environmental impact of the EUCA scenario is 15% higher than that of the REF scenario (85% higher in case of the BAU scenario). In case of specific environmental problems, emissions of greenhouse gases, acidifying compounds, eutrophying compounds, smog precursors and human toxic substances were calculated to reduce by about 40%, 45%, 20%, 45% and 45%, respectively, relative to the BAU scenario. This indicates that the potential environmental impact of the Chino-Thai project would be drastically reduced, if the final product is changed from Kraft pulp to harvested eucalyptus.

References

Alcamo J. 2001. Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessments. Environmental issue report No.24. European Environmental Agency. Copenhagen, Denmark.

Azapagic A, Clift R. 1999. The application of life cycle assessment to process optimization. Computers & Chemical Engineering 23 (10),1509-1526.

Cavallaro F, Ciraolo L. 2005. A multicriteria approach to evaluate wind energy plants on an Italian island.  Energy Policy 33 (2), 235-244.

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Cziner K, Tuomaala M, Hurme M. 2005. Multicriteria decision making in process integration. Journal of Cleaner Production 13, 475-483.

Jawjit., W., 2006. An Environmental System Analysis of the Kraft Pulp Industry in Thailand. Ph.D. Thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.

Jawjit, W., Kroeze, C., Soontaranun, W., Hordijk, L., 2007. Options to Reduce the Environmental Impact by Kraft Pulp Industry in Thailand: Model description. Journal of Cleaner Production 15 (8), 1827-1839

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OAE. 2001. Economic Feasibility Study on joint venture of the China-Thailand pulp project. Office of Agricultural Economic, Department of Royal Forestry, Ministry of Agriculture and Coporation. (Thai edition)

Pineda-Henson R, Culaba A B, Mendoza G A. 2002. Evaluating Evironmental Performance of Pulp and Paper Manufacturing Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process and Life-Cycle Assessment. Journal of Industrial Ecology 6(1),15-28.

Petmak P. 1999. Ecological effect of Eucalyptus Maludensis plantation in Thailand. Department of Royal Forestry, Bangkok, Thailand (Thai edition)

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Handbook of systems analysis. Volume Two - Craft Issues and Procedural Choices. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, UK: 327-367.

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[1] Reprinted from Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol 15 (18), Warit Jawjit, Carolien Kroeze, Wit Soontaranun and Leen Hordijk, Options to reduce the environmental impact by eucalyptus-based Kraft pulp industry in Thailand: model description, page 13, Copyright 2006, with permission from Elsevier.

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Human toxicity

%

1

solid waste

Inorganic

%

17

Global warming

%

4

Smog

%

8

Eutrophication

%

35

Acidification

%

35

Transport to Paper mill in Thailand

Transport to China

Kraft pulp

Raw materials

KRAFT PULP INDUSTRY

Emissions

Kraft pulp production subsystem

Wastewater treatment unit

Chemical recovery unit

Kraft pulp production unit

The Chino-Thai Kraft pulp project

Energy generation unit

Eucalyptus forestry subsystem

Transportation

Eucalyptus harvesting

Eucalyptus plantation

Eucalyptus breeding

Economic feasibility study

(studied by Office of Agricultural Economics (2001) )

Ecological Effect from eucalyptus plantation

(studied by Petmak (1999) and Royal Forestry Department (2001) )

Potential Environmental impact

(This study)

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