BLUE BOOK II CAR
USED
BLUE BOOK
CAR
EDITION
Market Report
DECEMBER
2014
Automotive Insights from Kelley Blue Book
Kelley Blue Book Public Relations Contacts:
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USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:
Used-Vehicle Values Finish the Year Strong
In This Issue:
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS Used-Vehicle Values Finish the Year Strong
Mid-Size Pickup Truck Category Leads in Retained Value
$19,000 $18,500 $18,000 $17,500
Used-Vehicle Values Finish Strong
Fuel Prices Reach New Low
Despite Dip in Housing Construction, Full-Size Truck Values Remain Stable
Mid-Size Sedan Segment Outperforms in December Despite Auction Volume Increase
Auction Values
$17,000
$16,500
$16,000
$15,500
$15,000
$14,500
CY 2012 CY 2013 CY 2014
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
? Auction values in December finished 0.9 percent higher than in 2013 and 0.8 percent higher than 2012.
? The strength seen in December's average auction value came primarily from the mid-size and subcompact car segments, each segment gained 0.9 percent and 0.8 percent respectively.
"The real surprise came from the strength we're seeing in the subcompact car segment," said Sean Foyil, analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Typically, as fuel prices dip we see the more fuel-efficient segments take the largest hit, and with fuel prices reaching a three-year low, it's surprising to see the smaller vehicles holding demand."
Mid-Size Pickup Truck Category Leads in Retained Value
MY13 Retained Value (Auction Value/MSRP)
MY13 Retention
Mid-Size Pickup Truck
77.7%
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover
66.5%
Luxury Car
61.0%
Compact Car
60.2%
Subcompact Car
57.6%
Mid-Size Car
56.4%
Full-Size Car
50.4%
0%
50%
100%
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
? Among the 20 vehicle segments used to classify vehicles, the mid-size pickup truck category leads the group in retained value, averaging retention of nearly 78 percent.
"On average, truck segments tend to hold their value better than their SUV and car counterparts. As we continue to see a decline in fuel prices, we can expect an increase in demand and thus higher retentions to continue throughout the truck segments," said Foyil.
? The luxury and compact car segments retained 61 and 60 percent of their values on average which ranks them No. 12 and 14 overall.
? Making up the bottom of the list are subcompact, mid-size and full-size car segments, ranked No. 17, 18 and 19 overall only to have the electric vehicle segment rank lowest at an average of 46 percent average retention.
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:
continued
Fuel Prices Reach New Low
Fuel Prices
Fuel Prices
Regular Conventional Retail
$4.05
$3.80
$3.55
$3.30
$3.05
$2.80
$2.55
$2.30
Jan
CY 2012 CY 2013 CY 2014
Feb March April May
June
July
Sept Oct Nov Dec
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
? The average price for regular conventional retail gasoline reached a new low in December at $2.49 per gallon nationally.
? The December price of $2.49 per gallon represents a 67 cent drop from 2013 and an 80 cent drop from 2012. In total, fuel prices declined 75 cents in the third quarter of 2014.
? According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (), fuel prices are expected to stabilize and remain around the $2.50 per gallon mark throughout the first quarter of 2015.
Despite Dip in Housing Construction, Full-Size Truck Values Remain Stable
Auction Values
$21,000
Full-Size Pickup Truck Values
$20,500
$20,000
$19,500
$19,000
$18,500
$18,000
$17,500
$17,000
$16,500
$16,000
CY 2012 CY 2013 CY 2014
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
1,150
Annual Rate for Housing Units Authorized
CY 2013
1,100
CY 2014
1,050
? Housing construction saw a slight downturn in November, as the seasonally adjusted annual rate for privately-owned housing units authorized ended the month 1.4 percent below October 2014 and 0.2 percent below November 2013.
? November was the first month since May that the 2014 rate for housing units authorized dropped below the 2013 rate for the same month.
? Auction values for full-size pickups in December dropped only 0.9 percent compared to November and remain 3.0 percent above December 2013.
? These relatively stable values could be attributed to the current low gas prices, as well as increased interest in the segment stemming from new models like the recently redesigned Ford F-150.
Seasonally Adjusted Total Units (Thousadns)
1,000
950
900
850
800
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: US Census Bureau; New Residential Construction
2 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report DECEMBER 2014
USED-CAR MARKET ANALYSIS:
continued
Mid-Size Sedan Segment Outperforms in December Despite Auction Volume Increase
Mid-Size Segment Four-Week % Difference MY 2011-2013
? Despite an increase in volume at the auctions, the mid-size car
segment was one of the overall best performing vehicle segments
Camry
1.9%
in December.
200
1.7%
? As volume increased in December, the top performers in the
Accord
1.6%
segment were the Toyota Camry, Chrysler 200 and Honda
Altima
1.6%
Accord, moving up 1.9 percent, 1.7 percent and 1.6 percent,
respectively.
Fusion
0.7%
? The worst performers include the Subaru Legacy, Volkswagen
Malibu
0.4%
Passat and Mazda Mazda6, declining by 1.8 percent, 0.8
Optima
0.2%
percent and 0.7 percent, respectively.
Sonata
-0.1%
? Month-over-month, the mid-size segment as a whole outperformed every other segment and showed an impressive
Avenger
-0.2%
increase by an average of 0.9 percent.
MAZDA6
-0.7%
Passat
-0.8%
Legacy -1.8%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
December 19, 2014 vs. November 21, 2014
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
Appendix
Top Five Performing Segments:
Bottom Five Performing Segments:
SEGMENT
4-Week (%)
Mid-Size Car
0.9%
Subcompact Car
0.8%
Compact SUV/Crossover
0.6%
Compact Car
0.6%
Luxury Compact SUV/Crossover
0.4%
MY 2011-2013, Kelley Blue Book ? Auction Value
SEGMENT
4-Week (%)
Sporty Compact Car
-7.1%
Electric Vehicle
-3.8%
Minivan/Van
-2.1%
High Performance Car
-2.0%
Luxury Car
-1.8%
MY 2011-2013, Kelley Blue Book ? Auction Value
Top 10 Performing Models:
MAKE
MODEL
Ford
C-MAX Hybrid
Mazda
MAZDA2
Mitsubishi
Endeavor
Chevrolet
Cruze
Nissan
Versa
Acura
ZDX
Ford
Fiesta
BMW
X1
Nissan
JUKE
BMW
X3
MY 2011-2013, Kelley Blue Book ? Auction Value
4-Week (%)
6.1% 5.8% 4.3% 3.9% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6%
Bottom 10 Performing Models:
MAKE
MODEL
Mercedes-Benz
SLK-Class
Mitsubishi
Eclipse
Acura
RL
Dodge
Grand Caravan Cargo
Cadillac
DTS
Cadillac
XTS
Suzuki
SX4
Chevrolet
Volt
Dodge
Dart
Chrysler
Town & Country
MY 2011-2013, Kelley Blue Book ? Auction Value
4-Week (%) -7.9% -7.1% -6.9% -6.4% -5.5% -5.2% -4.6% -4.5% -4.3% -4.0%
The statements set forth in this publication are the opinions of the authors and are subject to change without notice. This publication has been prepared for informational purposes only. Kelley Blue Book assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions.
About Kelley Blue Book ()
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource?, is the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website , including its famous Blue Book? Trade-In Values and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new and used cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies. Kelley Blue Book's ranked highest in its category for brand equity by the 2014 Harris Poll EquiTrend? study and has been named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year for three consecutive years. Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a Cox Automotive company. For more information and news from Kelley Blue Book's , visit media/.
3 BLUE BOOK Used-Car Market Report DECEMBER 2014
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