Beyond Hybrid War: How China Exploits Social Media to Sway ...

CYBER THREAT ANALYSIS

Beyond Hybrid War: How China Exploits Social Media to Sway American Opinion

By Insikt Group

CTA-2019-0306

CYBER THREAT ANALYSIS

Recorded Future analyzed data from several Western social media platforms from October 1, 2018 through February 22, 2019 to determine how the Chinese state exploits social media to influence the American public. This report details those techniques and campaigns using data acquired from Recorded Future? Platform, social media sites, and other OSINT techniques. This report will be of most value to government departments, geopolitical scholars and researchers, and all users of social media.

Executive Summary

Since the 2016 U.S. presidential election, researchers, reporters, and academics have devoted countless resources to understanding the role that Russian disinformation, or influence operations, played in the outcome of the election. As a result, there exists an implicit assumption that other state-run influence campaigns must look the same and operate in the same manner. However, our research demonstrates that social media influence campaigns are not a one-size-fits-all technique. We studied Chinese state-run social media influence operations and concluded that the Chinese state utilized techniques different from the Russian state. These differences in technique are driven by dissimilar foreign policy and strategic goals. President Xi Jinping has global strategic goals for China different from those President Vladimir Putin has for Russia; as a result, the social media influence techniques used by China are different from those used by Russia. Further, our research has revealed that the manner in which China has attempted to influence the American population is different from the techniques they use domestically. We believe that the Chinese state has employed a plethora of state-run media to exploit the openness of American democratic society in an effort to insert an intentionally distorted and biased narrative portraying a utopian view of the Chinese government and party.

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CYBER THREAT ANALYSIS

Key Judgments

? Chinese English-language social media influence operations are seeded by state-run media, which overwhelmingly present a positive, benign, and cooperative image of China.

? Chinese influence accounts used paid advertisements to target American users with political or nationally important messages and distorted general news about China.

? It is likely that weekly guidance issued by state propaganda authorities drives accounts to propagate positive messages in concert regarding special events once or twice a month.

? We assess that these Chinese state-run influence accounts did not attempt a large-scale campaign to influence American voters in the run-up to the November 6, 2018, midterm elections. However, on a small scale, we observed all of our researched state-run influence accounts disseminating breaking news and biased content surrounding President Trump and China-related issues.

? We believe that Russian social media influence operations are disruptive and destabilizing because those techniques support Russia's primary strategic goal. Conversely, China's state-run social media operations are largely positive and coordinated because those techniques support Chinese strategic goals.

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CYBER THREAT ANALYSIS

Background

In January 2017, the U.S. Intelligence Community published a

seminal unclassified assessment on Russian efforts to influence

the 2016 U.S. presidential election. One of the key judgments in

this assessment concluded:

We assess Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the US presidential election. Russia's goals were to undermine public faith in the U.S. democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency. We further assess Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump.

For most Americans, the influence campaign waged by the Russian state on Western social media platforms in 2016 was the first time they had ever encountered an information operation. Over the ensuing three years, investigations by the Department of Justice, academics, researchers, and others exposed the breadth, depth, and impact of the Russian influence campaign upon the American electorate.

While the experience of being targeted by an influence campaign was new for most Americans, these types of operations have been a critical component of many nations' military and intelligence capabilities for years. Broadly, information or influence operations are defined by the RAND Corporation as "the collection of tactical information about an adversary as well as the dissemination of propaganda in pursuit of a competitive advantage over an opponent."

For Russia, influence operations are part of a larger effort called "information confrontation." According to the Defense Intelligence Agency:

"Information confrontation," or IPb (informatsionnoye protivoborstvo), is the Russian government's term for conflict in the information sphere. IPb includes diplomatic, economic, military, political, cultural, social, and religious information arenas, and encompasses two measures for influence: informational-technical effect and informational-psychological effect.

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