Dry bulk market
Dry bulk market
Quarterly Outlook | March 2019
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Dry Bulk Market Review
Economic Environment
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If ships or paper for Q4 2018 were traded as per IHS Markit signals (Buy/Sell), it would have generated $300,000 USD over just two months (Oct 1 ? Nov 30)
Capesize 4Q 2018, IHS Markit Forecast vs FFA
25000
P/L against FFA(settlement at end 4Q 2018)
4Q 2019 Cape FFA
4Q 2019 Cape IHS Markit forecast 1,500,000
Sell, TC out
20000
1,000,000
USD / Day USD
15000 10000
5000
Profit Loss
Buy, TC in
500,000
Average profits USD 300.000
Limited liquidity in FFA market
0 -500,000
01-Oct 03-Oct 05-Oct 07-Oct 09-Oct 11-Oct 13-Oct 15-Oct 17-Oct 19-Oct 21-Oct 23-Oct 25-Oct 27-Oct 29-Oct 31-Oct 02-Nov 04-Nov 06-Nov 08-Nov 10-Nov 12-Nov 14-Nov 16-Nov 18-Nov 20-Nov 22-Nov 24-Nov 26-Nov 28-Nov 30-Nov 02-Dec 04-Dec 06-Dec 08-Dec 10-Dec 12-Dec 14-Dec 16-Dec 18-Dec 20-Dec 22-Dec 24-Dec
Source: IHS Markit, Baltic Exchange
? 2019 IHS Markit
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IHS Markit Forecast models have shown strong sell signals for FFA Feb 2019 before the derivative fell significantly and turned bearish than our prediction
Capesize 5TC average Feb 2019 , IHS Markit vs FFA
Panamax 4TC average Feb 2019, IHS Markit vs FFA
15000
P/L against FFA
Feb-19 Cape FFA
Feb-19 Cape IHS Markit forecast
300,000
250,000
10000 Sell, TC out
200,000 150,000 100,000
5000
Profit
Loss
Daily average profit
USD 97,000
0
50,000
0 Limited liquidity in FFA market -50,000
-100,000
15000
P/L against FFA Feb-19 PMX IHS Markit forecast
Sell, TC out
10000
5000
Profit
Loss
Daily average profit
USD 100,000
0
Feb-19 PMX FFA
300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Limited liquidity in FFA market -50,000 -100,000
USD / Day USD
USD / Day USD
03-Dec 10-Dec 17-Dec 24-Dec 31-Dec 07-Jan 14-Jan 21-Jan 28-Jan 04-Feb 11-Feb 18-Feb 25-Feb 03-Dec 10-Dec 17-Dec 24-Dec 31-Dec 07-Jan 14-Jan 21-Jan 28-Jan 04-Feb 11-Feb 18-Feb 25-Feb
Note: profit and loss as of 31st Jan 2019 Source: IHS Markit, Baltic Exchange
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? 2019 IHS Markit
Note: profit and loss as of 31st Jan 2019 Source: IHS Markit, Baltic Exchange
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? 2019 IHS Markit
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IHS Markit's dry bulk freight forecast models on 31st December 2018 showed strong sell signals for FFA first quarter 2019 contracts
TC average 1Q 2019 : IHS Markit forecast vs FFA (at 31st Dec 2018)
FFA 1Q 2019 movements
15,000 14,000
Sell
Sell
18000
1Q 2019 Cape FFA Spread Cape-PMX
1Q 2019 PMX FFA
13,000 12,000 11,000
USD / Day
13000 8000
USD/day
10,000
9,000
8,000
Cape
IHS Markit Forecast (End Dec 2018)
Source: IHS Markit
3000
-2000
PMX FFA(End Dec 2018)
? 2019 IHS Markit
Source: IHS Markit, Baltic Exchange
03-Dec 10-Dec 17-Dec 24-Dec 31-Dec 07-Jan 14-Jan 21-Jan 28-Jan 04-Feb 11-Feb 18-Feb 25-Feb 04-Mar 11-Mar 18-Mar 25-Mar
? 2019 IHS Markit
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In 2018, Capesize freight rates have improved and stayed profitable for a period, while smaller sizes have continued to earn below break-even point
Historical time charter rate ? Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax
35,000
30,000
C5TC
P4TC
S10TC
25,000
USD/day
20,000 15,000 10,000
EST.BEP Cape
EST.BEP PMX SMX
5,000
0 Jan-17
Source: IHS Markit, Baltic Exchange
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
? 2019 IHS Markit
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