Air Force Manpower Determinants - RAND Corporation
C O R P O R AT I O N
ALBERT A. ROBBERT, LISA M. HARRINGTON, LOUIS T. MARIANO, SUSAN A. RESETAR,
DAVID SCHULKER, JOHN S. CROWN, PAUL EMSLIE, SEAN MANN, GARY MASSEY
Air Force
Manpower
Determinants
Options for More-Responsive Processes
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ISBN: 978-1-9774-0484-8
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Preface
The Air Force has long-standing processes and resources in place to develop determinants of
the manpower required for Air Force activities. These processes often entail extensive
measurement of work and workload in order to determine the appropriate relationships between
workforce size and expected workloads. The validity of the derived relationships at the time they
are developed is generally considered acceptable. However, the level of effort required to
develop them is extensive. Given resource limitations, the processes currently in use are unable
to keep up with the demand for new determinants and update of existing determinants
necessitated by changes in mission and technology. Moreover, longstanding methods and
conventions warrant periodic review to identify potentially more-accurate assessments of
manpower needs. The purpose of this project is to identify and evaluate options to increase the
responsiveness of these processes or, if sufficient options are not available, to depict the
increased resources needed to meet the demand.
The research reported here was commissioned by the Deputy Under Secretary of the Air
Force, Management and the Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower, Personnel, and Services, U.S.
Air Force and conducted within the Manpower, Personnel, and Training Program of RAND
Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2018 project, Air Force Manpower Availability and
Determinant Factors.
This report should be of value to members of the Air Force human resource management
community concerned with determination of manpower requirements and to commanders,
functional managers, and others whose missions depend critically on appropriate sizing of their
workforces.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air
Force¡¯s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF
provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the
development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and
cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine; Force
Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource
Management. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000.
Additional information about PAF is available on our website:
iii
This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force on September 27,
2018. The draft report, issued in September 2018, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and
U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts.
iv
Contents
Preface ........................................................................................................................................... iii
Figures .......................................................................................................................................... vii
Tables .......................................................................................................................................... viii
Summary.........................................................................................................................................ix
Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................xvi
Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................ xviii
1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1
Background ............................................................................................................................................... 1
Methodologies ........................................................................................................................................... 2
Organization of the Report ........................................................................................................................ 3
2. Current Methods for Determining Manpower Requirements ..................................................... 4
Requirements Process Coverage ............................................................................................................... 4
Developing Manpower Standards ............................................................................................................. 6
Determining Requirements ....................................................................................................................... 7
3. Practices in Other Organizations ................................................................................................. 9
Approaches for Determining Workforce Requirements Discussed in the Literature ............................... 9
Practices We Observed ........................................................................................................................... 13
Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 32
4. Processes for Developing Man-Hour Estimates ........................................................................ 34
Familiarization ........................................................................................................................................ 35
Subject-Matter Expert Workshop ........................................................................................................... 38
Development of Required Man-Hours .................................................................................................... 42
Additional Considerations....................................................................................................................... 51
5. Man-Hour Availability and Other Related Factors ................................................................... 53
Methods for Estimating Factors .............................................................................................................. 53
Evaluating Potential Sources of Error in Man-Hour Availability Factor Measurement ......................... 59
6. Deployment Credit .................................................................................................................... 63
Changing Patterns of Deployment Demands .......................................................................................... 63
Dynamic Deployment Credit .................................................................................................................. 64
Natural Turnover ..................................................................................................................................... 66
Forecasting Demand................................................................................................................................ 68
Sizing the Dynamic Deployment Credit Pool ......................................................................................... 69
7. Feedback Loops ......................................................................................................................... 71
Time on the Job ....................................................................................................................................... 71
Performance Metrics ............................................................................................................................... 72
Tandem Application ................................................................................................................................ 74
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