Air Force Manpower Determinants - RAND Corporation

C O R P O R AT I O N

ALBERT A. ROBBERT, LISA M. HARRINGTON, LOUIS T. MARIANO, SUSAN A. RESETAR,

DAVID SCHULKER, JOHN S. CROWN, PAUL EMSLIE, SEAN MANN, GARY MASSEY

Air Force

Manpower

Determinants

Options for More-Responsive Processes

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ISBN: 978-1-9774-0484-8

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Preface

The Air Force has long-standing processes and resources in place to develop determinants of

the manpower required for Air Force activities. These processes often entail extensive

measurement of work and workload in order to determine the appropriate relationships between

workforce size and expected workloads. The validity of the derived relationships at the time they

are developed is generally considered acceptable. However, the level of effort required to

develop them is extensive. Given resource limitations, the processes currently in use are unable

to keep up with the demand for new determinants and update of existing determinants

necessitated by changes in mission and technology. Moreover, longstanding methods and

conventions warrant periodic review to identify potentially more-accurate assessments of

manpower needs. The purpose of this project is to identify and evaluate options to increase the

responsiveness of these processes or, if sufficient options are not available, to depict the

increased resources needed to meet the demand.

The research reported here was commissioned by the Deputy Under Secretary of the Air

Force, Management and the Deputy Chief of Staff for Manpower, Personnel, and Services, U.S.

Air Force and conducted within the Manpower, Personnel, and Training Program of RAND

Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2018 project, Air Force Manpower Availability and

Determinant Factors.

This report should be of value to members of the Air Force human resource management

community concerned with determination of manpower requirements and to commanders,

functional managers, and others whose missions depend critically on appropriate sizing of their

workforces.

RAND Project AIR FORCE

RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air

Force¡¯s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF

provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the

development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and

cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine; Force

Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource

Management. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000.

Additional information about PAF is available on our website:



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This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force on September 27,

2018. The draft report, issued in September 2018, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and

U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts.

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Contents

Preface ........................................................................................................................................... iii

Figures .......................................................................................................................................... vii

Tables .......................................................................................................................................... viii

Summary.........................................................................................................................................ix

Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................xvi

Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................ xviii

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1

Background ............................................................................................................................................... 1

Methodologies ........................................................................................................................................... 2

Organization of the Report ........................................................................................................................ 3

2. Current Methods for Determining Manpower Requirements ..................................................... 4

Requirements Process Coverage ............................................................................................................... 4

Developing Manpower Standards ............................................................................................................. 6

Determining Requirements ....................................................................................................................... 7

3. Practices in Other Organizations ................................................................................................. 9

Approaches for Determining Workforce Requirements Discussed in the Literature ............................... 9

Practices We Observed ........................................................................................................................... 13

Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 32

4. Processes for Developing Man-Hour Estimates ........................................................................ 34

Familiarization ........................................................................................................................................ 35

Subject-Matter Expert Workshop ........................................................................................................... 38

Development of Required Man-Hours .................................................................................................... 42

Additional Considerations....................................................................................................................... 51

5. Man-Hour Availability and Other Related Factors ................................................................... 53

Methods for Estimating Factors .............................................................................................................. 53

Evaluating Potential Sources of Error in Man-Hour Availability Factor Measurement ......................... 59

6. Deployment Credit .................................................................................................................... 63

Changing Patterns of Deployment Demands .......................................................................................... 63

Dynamic Deployment Credit .................................................................................................................. 64

Natural Turnover ..................................................................................................................................... 66

Forecasting Demand................................................................................................................................ 68

Sizing the Dynamic Deployment Credit Pool ......................................................................................... 69

7. Feedback Loops ......................................................................................................................... 71

Time on the Job ....................................................................................................................................... 71

Performance Metrics ............................................................................................................................... 72

Tandem Application ................................................................................................................................ 74

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