2020 U.S. CENSUS

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The 2020 U.S. C e nsus will p ro vid e a b e nc hma rk fo r a C a lifo rnia in tra nsitio n. The sta te 's p o p ula tio n g ro wth slo we d to 0.35 p e rc e nt in fisc a l ye a r 2018-19, d ue to fe we r b irths, inc re a sing d e a ths, a nd lo we r ne t mig ra tio n. Slo we r g ro wth is p ro je c te d to c o ntinue fo r the sta te , with a to ta l p o p ula tio n o f 45 millio n b y 2060.

2 0 2 0 U.S. C ENSUS

The U.S. C o nstitutio n re q uire s tha t a d e c e nnia l c e nsus b e c o nd uc te d , with the ne xt e nume ra tio n o n Ap ril 1, 2020. The se c o unts a re use d to re a p p o rtio n C o ng re ss. In a c c o rd a nc e with fe d e ra l la w, the y a re no t sub je c t to a d justme nt fo r a ny c e nsus und e rc o unt. The fe d e ra l g o ve rnme nt a lso use s c e nsus d a ta a s a b a se fo r ma ny o f its d a ta c o lle c tio n e ffo rts. The sta te use s the d e c e nnia l c e nsus d a ta a lo ng with b irth, d e a th a nd mig ra tio n d a ta to p ro d uc e sta te p o p ula tio n numb e rs tha t a re use d b y o the r g o ve rnme nta l a nd re se a rc h a g e nc ie s fo r re so urc e a llo c a tio n a nd to p ro d uc e o the r sta tistic s d e sc rib ing the sta te .

A c o mp le te a nd a c c ura te c o unt is e sse ntia l to e nsuring re so urc e s a re a llo c a te d fa irly. So me g ro up s tha t ha ve histo ric a lly b e e n und e rc o unte d a re re nte rs, fo re ig n-b o rn re sid e nts, no n-white re sid e nts, a nd tho se und e r five ye a rs o ld , e sp e c ia lly tho se le ss tha n o ne ye a r o ld . To mitig a te this risk, C a lifo rnia ha s a llo c a te d $187.2 millio n to a ssist the U.S. C e nsus Bure a u in a c c ura te ly c o unting the sta te ' s p o p ula tio n. The sta te is c o nd uc ting a n e xte nsive o utre a c h p ro g ra m with sta te wid e me d ia c a mp a ig ns a nd ne ig hb o rho o d le ve l p ro g ra ms to e nc o ura g e C a lifo rnia ns to p a rtic ip a te in the c e nsus.

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DEM O G RA PHIC O UTLO O K

C a lifo rnia ' s p o p ula tio n wa s e stima te d a t 39.96 millio n a s o f July 1, 2019, up 0.35 p e rc e nt o ve r July 1, 2018. The sta te ' s a nnua lize d a ve ra g e ra te o f g ro wth sinc e 2010 o f 0.76 p e rc e nt, a ltho ug h lo we r tha n in p re c e d ing d e c a d e s, is c o mp a ra b le to the na tio na l g ro wth ra te d uring the sa me p e rio d , a nd mo re tha n thre e time s the Euro p e a n Unio n' s p o p ula tio n g ro wth ra te o f 0.2 p e rc e nt.

Re g io na lly, inla nd c o untie s c o ntinue to ha ve the hig he st p o p ula tio n g ro wth ra te s, c o ntinuing a tre nd sta rte d in 2016. Mo st o f the urb a n c o a sta l c o untie s ha ve g ro wn a t a muc h slo we r p a c e a nd so me ha ve lo st p o p ula tio n. The sma lle r rura l c o untie s ha ve lo st p o p ula tio n o r g ro wn ve ry little with the e xc e p tio n o f the c o untie s surro und ing Butte C o unty d ue to the imp a c t o f the C a mp Fire in 2018. The C a mp Fire wa s the mo st d e struc tive wild fire in C a lifo rnia histo ry a nd d e stro ye d o ve r 14,600 ho using units, with a la rg e numb e r o f p e o p le re lo c a ting to ne a rb y c o untie s.

Sinc e 1975, C a lifo rnia ' s p o p ula tio n ha s g ro wn fro m 21 millio n to a lmo st 40 millio n--ne a rly d o ub ling in 40 ye a rs. At its c urre nt ra te o f g ro wth, the ne xt d o ub ling in p o p ula tio n size wo uld ta ke a ro und 200 ye a rs. Pe o p le a re ha ving fe we r c hild re n, c o rre la te d with c ha ng e s in e d uc a tio n, ma rria g e , a nd wo rk d e c isio ns. The sta te ha s a lso b e e n e xp e rie nc ing lo we r ne t mig ra tio n, with a susta ine d d e fic it in d o me stic ne t mig ra tio n, a nd re c e nt d e c re a se s in ne t fo re ig n mig ra tio n.

Births ha ve d e c line d fro m a lmo st 510,000 in 2010-11 to just o ve r 450,000 in 2018-19. As a c o nse q ue nc e , e nro llme nt a nd a ve ra g e d a ily a tte nd a nc e a t C a lifo rnia p ub lic sc ho o ls ha ve d e c line d sinc e the 2013-14 a c a d e mic ye a r. De a ths ha ve inc re a se d fro m und e r 240,000 in 2010-11 to o ve r 270,000 in 2018-19, a s the sha re o f the p o p ula tio n o ve r a g e 65 ha s g ro wn fro m 11.5 p e rc e nt in 2010 to 15 p e rc e nt in 2019.

C a lifo rnia c o ntinue s to ha ve p o sitive inte rna tio na l immig ra tio n, b ut b o th lo we r inte rna tio na l mig ra tio n a nd hig he r d o me stic o ut-mig ra tio n le d to a ne t o utflo w o f a lmo st 40,000 in 2019, ma rking the first time sinc e 2010 tha t mo re p e o p le mo ve d o ut o f C a lifo rnia tha n into the sta te . The sta te a lso e xp e rie nc e d ne t o utflo ws fro m 1993 to 1996 a nd fro m 2005 to 2010, o ffse t b y mo re b irths tha n d e a ths. (Se e fig ure o n C o mp o ne nts o f Po p ula tio n G ro wth.)

Re c e ntly up d a te d p o p ula tio n p ro je c tio ns re fle c t d e c re a se d e xp e c ta tio ns fo r future p o p ula tio n g ro wth. The ne t a nnua l p o p ula tio n inc re a se is e xp e c te d to fa ll to less than 100,000 b y 2045, a nd c lo se to ze ro ne t g ro wth b y 2060. Fe we r b irths le a d to fe we r a d ults, whic h c o mp o und s the slo wing g ro wth o ve r time . The c urre nt p ro je c tio ns se rie s

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re a c h a to ta l p o p ula tio n o f 45 millio n b y 2060, ra the r tha n 50 millio n in the p re vio us ite ra tio n.

The to ta l fe rtility ra te is p ro je c te d to d e c line g ra d ua lly fro m its c urre nt le ve l o f 1.65 c hild re n p e r wo ma n to 1.55 b y 2030. With a c ha ng ing a g e struc ture , this le a d s to a ro und 445,000 b irths in 2030, d e c lining to around 425,000 b y 2060. This re d uc tio n in b irths will c o ntinue to imp a c t sc ho o l e nro llme nt a s b irth c o ho rts g e t sma lle r. Slo wing imp ro ve me nts in life e xp e c ta nc y a t b irth sinc e 2010, mo stly a s a re sult o f sta lle d mo rta lity imp ro ve me nts a t yo ung a d ult a g e s, ha ve tra nsla te d to a p ro je c tio n o f mo d e st inc re a se s in life e xp e c ta nc y in the c o ming d e c a d e s. C a lifo rnia ' s c urre nt life e xp e c ta nc y a t b irth is e stima te d a t 81.5 ye a rs a nd is p ro je c te d to inc re a se to 82.0 ye a rs b y 2025. De a ths will c o ntinue to inc re a se fro m 340,000 in 2030 to 490,000 b y 2060. Afte r around 2040, the re will b e mo re d e a ths tha n b irths e a c h ye a r.

The ne w p ro je c tio ns a ssume the sta te re ve rts to ne t mig ra tio n flo ws o f a ro und 100,000 p e r ye a r in the lo ng te rm, in line with the a ve ra g e d uring 2010 thro ug h 2019, b ut sig nific a ntly lo we r tha n le ve ls o b se rve d d uring the p e rio d b e fo re 2005. In a sc e na rio with ze ro ne t mig ra tio n, the sta te ' s p o p ula tio n p e a ks a t 42 millio n in 2038 a nd the re a fte r d e c line s to 40 millio n b y 2060. O the r a d va nc e d c o untrie s, suc h a s Ja p a n, ha ve a lre a d y

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b e g un lo sing p o p ula tio n d ue to mo re d e a ths tha n b irths a nd histo ric a l p a tte rns o f lo w immig ra tio n.

The a g e struc ture o f the p o p ula tio n is a lso p ro je c te d to c ha ng e . (Se e Fig ure o f Po p ula tio n b y Ag e G ro up .) In the p a st, C a lifo rnia ha s b e e n a re la tive ly yo ung sta te , with o ne o f the lo we st p e rc e nta g e s o f the p o p ula tio n a g e d 65 a nd o ve r. This is d ue to its d isp ro p o rtio na te sha re o f b a b y b o o me rs, tho se b o rn 1946 to 1964. Ho we ve r, no w tha t this c o ho rt is e nte ring re tire me nt, the ra tio o f C a lifo rnia ns o ve r 65 to tho se a g e s 20-64--c a lle d the O ld Ag e De p e nd e nc y Ra tio (O ADR)--is inc re a sing fro m a ro und 19 p e r 100 in 2010 to 35 p e r 100 in 2030. The Unite d Sta te s p o p ula tio n a c c o rd ing to la te st C e nsus Bure a u p ro je c tio ns will se e simila r tre nd s to the sta te : the na tio na l O ADR is p ro je c te d to inc re a se fro m 22 p e r 100 in 2010 to 37 p e r 100 b y 2030.

HO USING A ND INC O M E

The o ffic ia l p o ve rty ra te fo r C a lifo rnia in 2018 wa s 11.9 p e rc e nt, d o wn fro m a p e a k o f 16.9 p e rc e nt in 2011. This wa s the first time a fte r the G re a t Re c e ssio n tha t C a lifo rnia p o ve rty ha d fa lle n b e lo w p re -re c e ssio na ry le ve ls.

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A p e rso n is c o nsid e re d to b e in p o ve rty if the y live in a ho use ho ld with a n inc o me b e lo w the o ffic ia l thre sho ld fo r tha t ho use ho ld typ e . Fo r e xa mp le , the 2018 p o ve rty thre sho ld fo r a sing le a d ult wa s $12,784 a nd the thre sho ld fo r a sing le p a re nt with two c hild re n wa s $20,231. Imp ro ve me nts in the e c o no my ha ve a ffe c te d d iffe re nt ho use ho ld typ e s in d iffe re nt wa ys, a nd c ha ng e s in p o ve rty c a n d iffe r b y a g e g ro up . Fo r p e rso ns a g e 0 to 17 a nd a g e 18 to 64, p o ve rty ha s b e e n o n a d o wnwa rd tre nd in C a lifo rnia with p o ve rty in 2018 fo r p e rso ns a g e 0 to 17 a t 16.5 p e rc e nt c o mp a re d to 24.3 p e rc e nt in 2011. Fo r p e rso ns a g e 18 to 64, the p o ve rty ra te in 2018 wa s 10.6 p e rc e nt c o mp a re d to 15.6 p e rc e nt in 2011. By c o ntra st, the p o ve rty ra te fo r se nio rs ha s tre nd e d up wa rd s sinc e 2010--7.8 p e rc e nt in 2010 c o mp a re d to 10.5 p e rc e nt in 2018. The fig ure o n Po ve rty Ra te s b y Ag e sho ws mo re d e ta il.

The re c o rd -lo w une mp lo yme nt ra te s in C a lifo rnia me a n mo re p e o p le ha ve wo rk, b ut mo re d e ma nd fo r hig he r-skille d jo b s c a n a lso a ffe c t p a rtic ip a tio n ra te s. La b o r fo rc e p a rtic ip a tio n ra te s fo r tho se b e twe e n 25 a nd 64 ye a rs o ld ha ve d e c line d b y ne a rly 3 p e rc e nt sinc e 2000 fo r ind ivid ua ls with le ss tha n a b a c he lo r' s d e g re e (fro m 76 to 73 p e rc e nt) a nd 2 p e rc e nt fo r tho se with a c o lle g e d e g re e a nd hig he r (fro m 86 to 84 p e rc e nt). O ve ra ll la b o r fo rc e p a rtic ip a tio n a mo ng the 25-64 ye a r o ld p o p ula tio n ha s d ro p p e d a p p ro xima te ly 1.5 p e rc e nt a s the numb e r o f tho se with a c o lle g e d e g re e ha ve inc re a se d . In 2000, o nly 28 p e rc e nt o f C a lifo rnia ns a g e s 25-64 ha d a b a c he lo r' s

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