Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

US Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.

June 17, 2022

Dr. Edward Yardeni

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Debbie Johnson

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Mali Quintana

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Car & Light Truck Sales Car & Light Truck Sales & Production Domestic Auto Inventories Auto Sales PCED & CPI Autos PCE Autos Misc

1 2 3 4-5 6 7 8-10

June 17, 2022 / Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Car & Light Truck Sales

Figure 1.

22

US MOTOR VEHICLE SALES* (million units, saar)

20

22

Total (12.8)

20

12-month moving average (13.8)

18

18

16

16

14

14

May

12

12

10

10



8

8

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Includes domestic cars, light trucks, and imports. Source: Autodata and Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.

12

US MOTOR VEHICLE SALES* (million units, saar)

10

8

12

Auto Sales

Domestic Cars (1.9)

Domestic Light

10

Trucks (8.0)

Imports (3.0)

8

6

6

4

4

2

May 2



0

0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Autodata and Haver Analytics.

Page 1 / June 17, 2022 / Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Car & Light Truck Sales & Production

Figure 3.

24

24

DOMESTIC AUTO & LIGHT TRUCK SALES & PRODUCTION

21

(million units, saar)

21

18

18

15

15

12

9

Domestic Auto

6

Sales (9.9)

Production (10.4)

3

12 May

9

6

3

0

0



-3

-3

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board.

Figure 4.

10

10

DOMESTIC AUTO & LIGHT TRUCK PRODUCTION

9 (million units, saar)

9

8

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

Autos (1.8)

1

Light Trucks (8.6)

0

May 2 1 0

-1

-1



-2

-2

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 2 / June 17, 2022 / Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Domestic Auto Inventories

Figure 5.

5.0

DOMESTIC AUTO INVENTORY/SALES RATIO*

4.5

(month's supply)

5.0

Latest (0.5) 4.5

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

.5

Apr .5



.0

.0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Autos produced in US, Canada, and Mexico and sold in US. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 6.

DOMESTIC AUTO INDUSTRY DAYS' SUPPLY (I/S ratio times the number of selling days)

150

150

100

100

50

50

Apr



0

0

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 3 / June 17, 2022 / Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Auto Sales

Figure 7.

35

35

IMPORTED LIGHT VEHICLE RETAIL SALES (as a percent of total light vehicle sales)

30

30

25

25

May

20

20

15

15



10

10

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Autodata.

Figure 8.

35

35

IMPORTED RETAIL LIGHT AUTO SALES* (as a percent of total retail light auto sales**)

30

30

25

25

20

May 20

15

15



10

10

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* Imported sales are US sales of vehicles produced outside the US, Canada, and Mexico. ** Domestic and imported.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 4 / June 17, 2022 / Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Auto Sales

Figure 9.

35

IMPORTED RETAIL LIGHT AUTO SALES (as a percent of total retail light auto sales*)

30

Bureau of Economic Analysis

25

Autodata

20

35

30

25 May

20

15

15



10

10

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* Domestic plus imported. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Autodata.

Figure 10.

25

2.5

RETAIL UNIT AUTO SALES & HOUSING COMPLETIONS

(million units, saar)

20

2.0

15

May 1.5

May

10

1.0

Retail Unit Auto Sales*

Housing Completions



5

.5

76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* Includes domestic cars, light trucks, and imports. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census.

Page 5 / June 17, 2022 / Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



PCED & CPI Autos

Figure 11.

308

278 248

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR & CPI:

218

USED AUTOS

188

(ratio scale)

158

128

98

68

38

PCED: Used Autos

CPI: Used Cars & Trucks

308 278

248

May

218

188

158

Apr

128

98

68

38



8

8

56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 12.

700

700

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: MOTOR VEHICLES

650 (billion 2012 dollars, saar)

650

600

600

Total* (536.1)

550

550

Apr

500

500

450

450

400

400

350

350

300

300

250

250

200

200



150

150

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* New plus used. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 6 / June 17, 2022 / Economic Indicators: Auto Sales

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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