New Home Sales & Housing Market Index

US Economic Indicators: New Home Sales &

Housing Market Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.

February 24, 2023

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Housing Market Index

2-3

NAHB & S&P 500 Homebuilding

4

Home Prices

5

Sales & Housing Completions

6-7

February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 1.

1500

1500

1400 NEW HOME SALES

1400

(thousand units, saar)

1300

1300

1200

1200

1100

1100

1000

1000

900

900

800

800

700

Jan

700

600

600

500

500

400

400

300

300

200

200

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

600

600

NEW HOMES FOR SALE (thousand units, sa)

500

500

Jan

400

400

300

300

200

200

100

100

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

14

14

13 NEW HOMES: MONTHS' SUPPLY ON THE MARKET*

13

12

12

11

11

10

10

9

9

8

Jan

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3



2

2

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

* Ratio of new homes for sale to new homes sold. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau.

Page 1 / February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Housing Market Index

Figure 2.

100

2250

90

NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS

2150 2050 1950

80

1850

1750

70

1650

1550

60

1450

1350

50

1250

40

Housing Market Index

Feb

1150 1050

950

30 Single-Family Housing Starts

20

(thousand units, saar)

Jan

850

750

650

550

10

450

350

0

250

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

100

100

90 NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

40

Current Single-Family Sales Index

30

Future Single-Family Sales Index

20

50 Feb

40

30

20

10

10

0

0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

80

80

NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS

60

60

40 Traffic of Prospective Home Buyers

20

40 Feb

20



0

0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: National Association of Home Builders and Commerce Department.

Page 2 / February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Housing Market Index

Figure 3.

100

100

90 NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

Northeast

40

Feb 50 40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

100

100

90

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

South

40

50 Feb

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

90

90

80

80

70

70

60

60

50

40

Midwest

30

50

40 Feb

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

100

100

80

80

60 West

40

60 Feb 40

20

20



0

0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: National Association of Home Builders and Commerce Department.

Page 3 / February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.



NAHB & S&P 500 Homebuilding

Figure 4.

100

2200

NAHB INDEX & S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING

90

2000

80

70

NAHB Index 60

S&P 500

50

Homebuilding Index

40

30

20

1800 2/23

1600

1400

1200

1000 Feb

800

600

400

10

200



0

0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Standard & Poor's and National Association of Home Builders.

Figure 5.

-1.2

80

-1.0 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE INTEREST RATE vs NAHB (percent)

70

-.8

60

-.6

50 -.4

-.2

40

.0

30

.2

20

.4 Aug 10

.6

.8

0

1.0

30-Year Mortgage*

Feb -10

1.2

(30-yr mortgage rate less 12-month moving avg, 6-months ahead,

-20

1.4

inverted scale)

-30

1.6

NAHB Index

-40

1.8

(6-month change)

2.0

-50



2.2

-60

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

* Average conventional 30-year commitment rate. Source: FHLMC Primary Mortgage Market Survey and National Home Association of Home Builders.

Page 4 / February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 6.

1.4

SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES: NEW DIVIDED BY EXISTING

Home Prices

1.3 Average (1.3) Median (1.2)

1.2

1.4

1.3 Apr

1.2

1.1

1.1



1.0

1.0

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Source: Census Bureau and National Association of Realtors.

Figure 7.

100

NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX

80

Traffic of Prospective Home Buyers

100 Latest (29)

80

60

60

40

40

Feb

20

20



0

0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: National Association of Home Builders.

Page 5 / February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Sales & Housing Completions

Figure 8.

2.5

2.5

NEW HOME SALES & HOUSING COMPLETIONS: SINGLE-FAMILY (million units, saar)

2.0

Single-Family Housing

2.0

Completions (1.0) New Home Sales (0.7)

1.5

1.5

1.0

Jan

1.0

Jan

.5

.5



.0

.0

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau.

Figure 9.

60

60

55 NEW HOME PRICES: SINGLE-FAMILY

55

50

(24-month percent change)

50

45

45

40

New Home Prices Average Price (13.3)

40

35

Median Price (14.5)

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

Jan

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

-20

-25

-25



-30

-30

75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Source: Census Bureau.

Page 6 / February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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