New Home Sales & Housing Market Index
US Economic Indicators: New Home Sales &
Housing Market Index
Yardeni Research, Inc.
February 24, 2023
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333 aquintana@
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Housing Market Index
2-3
NAHB & S&P 500 Homebuilding
4
Home Prices
5
Sales & Housing Completions
6-7
February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 1.
1500
1500
1400 NEW HOME SALES
1400
(thousand units, saar)
1300
1300
1200
1200
1100
1100
1000
1000
900
900
800
800
700
Jan
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
600
600
NEW HOMES FOR SALE (thousand units, sa)
500
500
Jan
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
14
14
13 NEW HOMES: MONTHS' SUPPLY ON THE MARKET*
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
Jan
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
* Ratio of new homes for sale to new homes sold. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau.
Page 1 / February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Housing Market Index
Figure 2.
100
2250
90
NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS
2150 2050 1950
80
1850
1750
70
1650
1550
60
1450
1350
50
1250
40
Housing Market Index
Feb
1150 1050
950
30 Single-Family Housing Starts
20
(thousand units, saar)
Jan
850
750
650
550
10
450
350
0
250
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
100
100
90 NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
40
Current Single-Family Sales Index
30
Future Single-Family Sales Index
20
50 Feb
40
30
20
10
10
0
0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
80
80
NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS
60
60
40 Traffic of Prospective Home Buyers
20
40 Feb
20
0
0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Source: National Association of Home Builders and Commerce Department.
Page 2 / February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Housing Market Index
Figure 3.
100
100
90 NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
Northeast
40
Feb 50 40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
South
40
50 Feb
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
40
Midwest
30
50
40 Feb
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
100
100
80
80
60 West
40
60 Feb 40
20
20
0
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: National Association of Home Builders and Commerce Department.
Page 3 / February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index
Yardeni Research, Inc.
NAHB & S&P 500 Homebuilding
Figure 4.
100
2200
NAHB INDEX & S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING
90
2000
80
70
NAHB Index 60
S&P 500
50
Homebuilding Index
40
30
20
1800 2/23
1600
1400
1200
1000 Feb
800
600
400
10
200
0
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Standard & Poor's and National Association of Home Builders.
Figure 5.
-1.2
80
-1.0 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE INTEREST RATE vs NAHB (percent)
70
-.8
60
-.6
50 -.4
-.2
40
.0
30
.2
20
.4 Aug 10
.6
.8
0
1.0
30-Year Mortgage*
Feb -10
1.2
(30-yr mortgage rate less 12-month moving avg, 6-months ahead,
-20
1.4
inverted scale)
-30
1.6
NAHB Index
-40
1.8
(6-month change)
2.0
-50
2.2
-60
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
* Average conventional 30-year commitment rate. Source: FHLMC Primary Mortgage Market Survey and National Home Association of Home Builders.
Page 4 / February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 6.
1.4
SINGLE-FAMILY HOME PRICES: NEW DIVIDED BY EXISTING
Home Prices
1.3 Average (1.3) Median (1.2)
1.2
1.4
1.3 Apr
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Source: Census Bureau and National Association of Realtors.
Figure 7.
100
NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX
80
Traffic of Prospective Home Buyers
100 Latest (29)
80
60
60
40
40
Feb
20
20
0
0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: National Association of Home Builders.
Page 5 / February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Sales & Housing Completions
Figure 8.
2.5
2.5
NEW HOME SALES & HOUSING COMPLETIONS: SINGLE-FAMILY (million units, saar)
2.0
Single-Family Housing
2.0
Completions (1.0) New Home Sales (0.7)
1.5
1.5
1.0
Jan
1.0
Jan
.5
.5
.0
.0
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau.
Figure 9.
60
60
55 NEW HOME PRICES: SINGLE-FAMILY
55
50
(24-month percent change)
50
45
45
40
New Home Prices Average Price (13.3)
40
35
Median Price (14.5)
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
Jan
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Source: Census Bureau.
Page 6 / February 24, 2023 / New Home Sales & Housing Market Index
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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