China and Greater Central Asia: New Frontiers?

China and Greater Central Asia: New Frontiers?

Niklas Swanstr?m

SILK ROAD PAPER December 2011

China and Greater Central Asia: New Frontiers?

Niklas Swanstr?m

? Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program ? A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center

Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Institute for Security and Development Policy, V. Finnbodav. 2, Stockholm-Nacka 13130, Sweden



"China and Greater Central Asia: New Frontiers?" is a Silk Road Paper published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program. The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program is a joint transatlantic independent research and policy center. The Silk Road Papers Series is the Joint Center's Series of Occasional Papers. The Joint Center has offices in Washington and Stockholm and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Stockholmbased Institute for Security and Development Policy. It is the first Institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is today firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders and journalists. The Joint Center aims to be at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development in the region. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures and seminars, it aspires to function as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion regarding the region.

? Central Asia ? Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, 2011

ISBN: 978-91-86635-17-6 Printed in Singapore

Distributed in North America by:

The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: caci2@jhuadig.admin.jhu.edu

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Editorial correspondence should be addressed to Svante E. Cornell, Research and Publications Director, at either of the addresses above (preferably by email).

Contents

Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... 5 Introduction ...................................................................................................................10 Historical Background..................................................................................................15 Politico-Strategic Dimensions ....................................................................................23 Trade and Investments ............................................................................................... 40 Illegal Transactions and Organized Crime .............................................................. 59 The European Link ...................................................................................................... 65 Multilateralism and Trans-Regionalism...................................................................70 Concluding Discussion ............................................................................................... 78

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