Stocks For The Long Run - Mauricio Ríos García
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Second Edition
Stocks For The Long Run
The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies
Jeremy J. Siegel
Professor of Finance¡ª
the Wharton School of the
University of Pennsylvania
McGraw-Hill
New York San Francisco W ashing ton,
D.C. Auckland Bog ot¨¢
Caracas Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan
Montreal New Delhi San Juan Sing apore
Sydney Tokyo Toronto
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Author: Siegel, Jeremy J.
Title: Stocks for the long run/Jeremy J. Siegel.
Edition: 2nd ed.
Published: New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998.
Description: p. cm
LC Call No.: HG4661 .S53 1998
ISBN: 007058043X
Notes: Includes index.
Subjects: Stocks.
Stocks¡ªHistory.
Rate of return.
Control No.: 98005103
Copyright ? 1998, 1994 by Jeremy J. Siegel. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of
America. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this
publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a data base or
retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher.
7890
DOC/DOC
9032109
ISBN 0-07-058043-X (HC)
The sponsoring editor for this book was Jeffrey Krames, the editing supervisor was Kellie Hagen, and
the production supervisor was Suzanne W. B. Rapcavage. It was set in Palatino by Jan Fisher through
the services of Barry E. Brown (Broker¡ªEditing, Design and Production).
Printed and bound by R. R. Donnelley & Sons Company.
This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information in regard to the subject
matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that neither the author nor the publisher is engaged in
rendering legal, accounting, or other professional service. If legal advice or other expert assistance is
required, the services of a competent professional person should be sought.
¡ªFrom a Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar
Association and a Committee of Publishers.
McGraw-Hill books are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums and sales
promotions, or for use in corporate training programs. For more information, please write to the
Director of Special Sales, McGraw-Hill, 11 West 19th Street, New York, NY 10011. Or contact
your local bookstore.
II
CONTENTS
Acknowledgments
xi
Foreword
xiii
Preface
xvi
Part 1
The Verdict of History
Chapter 1
Stock and Bond Returns Since 1802
3
"Everybody Ought to be Rich"
3
Financial Market Returns from 1802
5
Historical Series on Bonds
7
The Price Level and Gold
9
Total Real Returns
10
Interpretation of Returns
12
Long Period Returns
12
Short Period Returns
13
Real Returns on Fixed-Income Assets
14
Explanations for the Fall in Fixed-Income Returns
15
Equity Premium
16
International Returns
18
Germany
19
United Kingdom
20
Japan
20
Foreign Bonds
21
Conclusion
Appendix 1: Stocks from 1802 to 1871
22
III
Appendix 2: Arithmetic and Geometric Returns
22
23
Chapter 2
Risk, Return and the Coming Age Wave
25
Measuring Risk and Return
25
Risk and Holding Period
26
IV
Investor Holding Periods
28
Investor Returns from Market Peaks
29
Standard Measures of Risk
31
Correlation Between Stock and Bond Returns
33
Efficient Frontiers
35
Recommended Portfolio Allocations
36
Inflation-Indexed Bonds
38
The Coming Age Wave
38
Solution to the "Age Wave Crisis"
41
Chapter 3
Perspectives on Stocks as Investments
43
Early Views of Stock Investing
45
Influence of Smith's Work
46
Common Stock Theory of Investment
48
A Radical Shift in Sentiment
49
Post-Crash View of Stock Returns
49
Investment Philosophy and the Valuation of Equity
51
Part 2
Stock Returns
Chapter 4
Stocks, Stock Averages, and the Dow Strategy
55
Market Averages
55
The Dow-Jones
55
Computation of the Dow Index
57
Long-Term Trends in the Dow-Jones
58
Use of Trend Lines to Predict Trends
59
Value-Weighted Indexes
60
V
The Cowles Index
60
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