Chapter 7: Risk management and decision making in relation to ...

Final Government Distribution

Chapter 7

IPCC SRCCL

1 Chapter 7: Risk management and decision making in relation to 2 sustainable development

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4 Coordinating Lead Authors: Margot Hurlbert (Canada), Jagdish Krishnaswamy (India)

5 Lead Authors: Edouard Davin (France/Switzerland), Francis X. Johnson (Sweden), Carlos Fernando 6 Mena (Ecuador), John Morton (United Kingdom), Soojeong Myeong (The Republic of Korea), David 7 Viner (United Kingdom), Koko Warner (The United States of America), Anita Wreford (New 8 Zealand), Sumaya Zakieldeen (Sudan), Zinta Zommers (Latvia)

9 Contributing Authors: Rob Bailis (The United States of America), Brigitte Baptiste (Colombia), 10 Kerry Bowman (Canada), Edward Byers (Austria/Brazil), Katherine Calvin (The United States of 11 America), Rocio Diaz-Chavez (Mexico), Jason Evans (Australia), Amber Fletcher (Canada), James 12 Ford (United Kingdom), Sean Patrick Grant (The United States of America), Darshini Mahadevia 13 (India), Yousef Manialawy (Canada), Pamela McElwee (The United States of America), Minal Pathak 14 (India), Julian Quan (United Kingdom), Balaji Rajagopalan (The United States of America), Alan 15 Renwick (New Zealand), Jorge E. Rodr?guez-Morales (Peru), Charlotte Streck (Germany), Wim 16 Thiery (Belgium), Alan Warner (Barbados)

17 Review Editors: Regina Rodrigues (Brazil), B.L. Turner II (The United States of America)

18 Chapter Scientist: Thobekile Zikhali (Zimbabwe)

19 Date of Draft: 07/08/2019

20

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Final Government Distribution

Chapter 7

IPCC SRCCL

1 Table of Contents

2 Chapter 7: Risk management and decision making in relation to sustainable development ............... 1

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Executive summary............................................................................................................................. 4

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7.1. Introduction and Relation to Other Chapters .......................................................................... 9

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7.1.1. Findings of Previous IPCC Assessments and Reports .................................................... 9

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7.1.2. Treatment of Key Terms in the Chapter ....................................................................... 10

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7.1.3. Roadmap to the chapter................................................................................................. 11

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7.2. Climate-related risks for land-based human systems and ecosystems ................................. 11

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7.2.1. Assessing Risk .............................................................................................................. 12

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7.2.2. Risks to land systems arising from climate change ..................................................... 12

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7.2.3. Risks arising from responses to climate change ........................................................... 19

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7.2.4. Risks arising from Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability.............................................. 22

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7.3. Consequences of climate ? land change for human well-being and sustainable development

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7.3.1. What is at stake for food security? ................................................................................ 27

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7.3.2. Risks to where and how people live: Livelihood systems and migration ..................... 27

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7.3.3. Risks to humans from disrupted ecosystems and species ............................................. 28

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7.3.4. Risks to Communities and Infrastructure...................................................................... 29

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Cross-chapter Box 10: Economic dimensions of climate change and land ...................................... 30

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7.4. Policy Instruments for Land and Climate ............................................................................. 33

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7.4.1. Multi-level Policy Instruments...................................................................................... 34

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7.4.2. Policies for Food Security and Social Protection.......................................................... 37

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7.4.3. Policies Responding to Climate Related Extremes ....................................................... 40

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7.4.4. Policies Responding to GHG fluxes ............................................................................. 43

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7.4.5. Policies Responding to Desertification and Degradation ? Land Degradation Neutrality

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(LDN) 48

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7.4.6. Policies Responding to Land Degradation .................................................................... 50

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7.4.7. Economic and financial instruments for adaptation, mitigation, and land .................... 57

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7.4.8. Enabling effective policy instruments ? Policy Portfolio Coherence ........................... 60

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7.4.9. Barriers to Implementing Policy Responses ................................................................. 62

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Cross-chapter Box 11: Gender in inclusive approaches to climate change, land, and sustainable

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development ...................................................................................................................................... 66

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7.5. Decision-making for Climate Change and Land................................................................... 69

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7.5.1. Formal and Informal decision-making.......................................................................... 69

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7.5.2. Decision Making, Timing, Risk, and Uncertainty ........................................................ 71

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7.5.3. Best practices of decision making toward sustainable land management ............. 74

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7.5.4. Adaptive management ................................................................................................ 75

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7.5.5. Performance indicators .............................................................................................. 77

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7.5.6. Maximising Synergies and Minimising Trade-offs .................................................. 78

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7.6. Governance: Governing the land-climate interface .............................................................. 93

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7.6.1. Institutions Building Adaptive and Mitigative Capacity............................................... 93

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7.6.2. Integration - Levels, Modes, and Scale of Governance for Sustainable Development . 95

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Cross-Chapter Box 12: Traditional biomass use: land, climate and development implications ....... 99

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7.6.3. Adaptive Climate Governance Responding to Uncertainty ........................................ 101

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7.6.4. Participation ................................................................................................................ 106

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Cross-Chapter Box 13: Indigenous and Local Knowledge in the IPCC Special Reports ............... 107

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7.6.5. Land Tenure ................................................................................................................ 111

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7.6.6. Institutional dimensions of adaptive governance ........................................................ 117

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7.6.7. Inclusive Governance for Sustainable Development .................................................. 118

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7.7. Key uncertainties and knowledge gaps ............................................................................... 119

14 Frequently Asked Questions ............................................................................................................... 120

15 References........................................................................................................................................... 122

16 Supplementary Material...................................................................................................................... 233

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Chapter 7

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1 Executive summary

2 Increases in global mean surface temperature are projected to result in continued permafrost 3 degradation and coastal degradation (high confidence), increased wildfire, decreased crop yields 4 in low latitudes, decreased food stability, decreased water availability, vegetation loss (medium 5 confidence), decreased access to food and increased soil erosion (low confidence).There is high 6 agreement and high evidence that increases in global mean temperature will result in continued 7 increase in global vegetation loss, coastal degradation, as well as decreased crop yields in low 8 latitudes, decreased food stability, decreased access to food and nutrition, and medium 9 confidence in continued permafrost degradation and water scarcity in drylands. Impacts are 10 already observed across all components (high confidence). Some processes may experience 11 irreversible impacts at lower levels of warming than others. There are high risks from permafrost 12 degradation, and wildfire, coastal degradation, stability of food systems at 1.5?C while high risks from 13 soil erosion, vegetation loss and changes in nutrition only occur at higher temperature thresholds due 14 to increased possibility for adaptation (medium confidence). {7.2.2.1, 7.2.2.2, 7.2.2.3; 7.2.2.4; 7.2.2.5; 15 7.2.2.6; 7.2.2.7; Figure 7.1} 16 17 These changes result in compound risks to food systems, human and ecosystem health, 18 livelihoods, the viability of infrastructure, and the value of land (high confidence). The 19 experience and dynamics of risk change over time as a result of both human and natural processes 20 (high confidence). There is high confidence that climate and land changes pose increased risks at 21 certain periods of life (i.e. to the very young and ageing populations) as well as sustained risk to those 22 living in poverty. Response options may also increase risks. For example, domestic efforts to insulate 23 populations from food price spikes associated with climatic stressors in the mid-2000s inadequately 24 prevented food insecurity and poverty, and worsened poverty globally. {7.2.1, 7.2.2, 7.3, Table 7.1} 25 26 There is significant regional heterogeneity in risks: tropical regions, including Sub-Saharan 27 Africa, Southeast Asia and Central and South America are particularly vulnerable to decreases 28 in crop yield (high confidence). Yield of crops in higher latitudes may initially benefit from warming 29 as well as from higher CO2 concentrations. But temperate zones, including the Mediterranean, North 30 Africa, the Gobi desert, Korea and western United States are susceptible to disruptions from increased 31 drought frequency and intensity, dust storms and fires (high confidence). {7.2.2} 32 33 Risks related to land degradation, desertification and food security increase with temperature 34 and can reverse development gains in some socio-economic development pathways (high 35 confidence) . SSP1 reduces the vulnerability and exposure of human and natural systems and 36 thus limits risks resulting from desertification, land degradation and food insecurity compared 37 to SSP3 (high confidence). SSP1 is characterized by low population growth, reduced inequalities, 38 land use regulation, low meat consumption, increased trade and few barriers to adaptation or 39 mitigation. SSP3 has the opposite characteristics. Under SSP1, only a small fraction of the dryland 40 population (around 3% at 3?C for the year 2050) will be exposed and vulnerable to water stress. 41 However under SSP3, around 20% of dryland populations (for the year 2050) will be exposed and 42 vulnerable to water stress by 1.5?C and 24% by 3?C. Similarly under SSP1, at 1.5?C, 2 million people 43 are expected to be exposed and vulnerable to crop yield change. Over 20 million are exposed and 44 vulnerable to crop yield change in SSP3, increasing to 854 million people at 3?C (low confidence). 45 Livelihoods deteriorate as a result of these impacts, livelihood migration is accelerated, and strife and 46 conflict is worsened (medium confidence). {Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 6, 7.2.2, 7.3.2, Table 7.1, 47 Figure 7.2} 48

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1 Land-based adaptation and mitigation responses pose risks associated with the effectiveness and 2 potential adverse side-effects of measures chosen (high confidence). Adverse side-effects on food 3 security, ecosystem services and water security increase with the scale of bioenergy and bioenergy 4 with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) deployment. In a SSP1 future, bioenergy and BECCS 5 deployment up to 6 Mkm2 is compatible with sustainability constraints, whereas risks are already high 6 in a SSP3 future for this scale of deployment. {7.2.3} 7 8 There is high confidence that policies addressing vicious cycles of poverty, land degradation and 9 greenhouse gas emissions implemented in a holistic manner can achieve climate resilient 10 sustainable development. Choice and implementation of policy instruments determine future 11 climate and land pathways (medium confidence). Sustainable development pathways (described in 12 SSP1) supported by effective regulation of land use to reduce environmental trade-offs, reduced 13 reliance on traditional biomass, low growth in consumption and limited meat diets, moderate 14 international trade with connected regional markets, and effective GHG mitigation instruments) can 15 result in lower food prices, fewer people affected by floods and other climatic disruptions, and 16 increases in forested land (high agreement, limited evidence) (SSP1). A policy pathway with limited 17 regulation of land use, low technology development, resource intensive consumption, constrained 18 trade, and ineffective GHG mitigation instruments can result in food price increases, and significant 19 loss of forest (high agreement, limited evidence) (SSP3). {3.7.5, 7.2.2, 7.3.4, 7.5.5, 7.5.6, Table 7.1, 20 Cross-Chapter Box 12: Traditional Biomass, in this chapter} 21 22 Delaying deep mitigation in other sectors and shifting the burden to the land sector, increases 23 the risk associated with adverse effects on food security and ecosystem services(high confidence). 24 The consequences are an increased pressure on land with higher risk of mitigation failure and of 25 temperature overshoot and a transfer of the burden of mitigation and unabated climate change to 26 future generations. Prioritising early decarbonisation with minimal reliance on carbon dioxide 27 removal (CDR) decreases the risk of mitigation failure (high confidence). {2.5, 6.2, 6.4, 7.2.1, 7.2.2,, 28 7.2.3, 7.5.6, 7.5.7, Cross-Chapter Box 9 in Chapter 6, 7.5.6} 29 30 Trade-offs can occur between using land for climate mitigation or sustainable development goal 31 (SDG) 7 (affordable clean energy) with biodiversity, food, ground-water and riverine ecosystem 32 services (medium confidence). There is medium confidence that trade-offs currently do not figure 33 into climate policies and decision making. Small hydro power installations (especially in clusters) can 34 impact downstream river ecological connectivity for fish (high agreement, medium evidence). Large 35 scale solar farms and wind turbine installations can impact endangered species and disrupt habitat 36 connectivity (medium agreement, medium evidence). Conversion of rivers for transportation can 37 disrupt fisheries and endangered species (through dredging and traffic) (medium agreement, low 38 evidence). {7.5.6} 39 40 The full mitigation potential assessed in this report will only be realised if agricultural emissions 41 are included in mainstream climate policy (high agreement, high evidence) . Carbon markets are 42 theoretically more cost-effective than taxation but challenging to implement in the land-sector (high 43 confidence) Carbon pricing (through carbon markets or carbon taxes) has the potential to be an 44 effective mechanism to reduce GHG emissions, although it remains relatively untested in agriculture 45 and food systems. Equity considerations can be balanced by a mix of both market and non-market 46 mechanisms (medium evidence, medium agreement). Emissions leakage could be reduced by multi47 lateral action (high agreement, medium evidence). {7.4.6, 7.5.5, 7.5.6, Cross Chapter Box 9 in 48 Chapter 6} 49

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