Coming Decade Will See Decline of China and Russia, Rise ...



Coming Decade Will See Decline of China and Russia, Rise of Japan, Disintegration of Europe, Says Stratfor

2/14/2005 7:04:00 AM

To: National Desk

Contact: Eden Fenigsohn of John Adams Associates Inc., 202-737-8400 or efenigsohn@

WASHINGTON, Feb. 14 /U.S. Newswire/ -- Stratfor, the nation's leading private intelligence service, today released a 10-year geopolitical forecast which predicts the decline of China and Russia, the rise of Japan and the disintegration of the European Union.

The forecast is based on Stratfor's ongoing analysis of security, political, demographic, and other major trends in all key regions of the world.

The STRATFOR 2005-2015 DECADE FORECAST was developed to assist clients in formulating long-range strategic plans by identifying potential risks and opportunities.

Highlights of the Stratfor 2005-2015 forecast include:

United States:

-- will continue to dominate the next decade economically and militarily.

-- has the youngest and fastest-growing population among all the major economies.

-- is positioned to replicate the investment boom of the 1995- 2005 decade.

-- will successfully manage social security issues.

-- will gradually shift its strategic focus from the Middle East to the Pacific basin.

Middle East:

-- The US-jihadist war will end in favor of the United States.

-- US involvement will shift from military to political.

-- Major leadership transitions in Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

Europe:

-- The political union will collapse, but economic union will continue.

-- Economies will remain static under heavy social costs, aging demographics.

-- Tensions will increase over Muslim immigration, possible attacks.

-- Russian attempts to expand could present new problems.

Russia:

-- Russia is collapsing and this will continue.

-- It will become increasingly nationalist and anti-Western.

-- It will eventually reassert itself as a major international player, but with a traditional anti-Western course.

China:

-- Slowdown in economic growth will lead to flight of investment.

-- Massive social upheavals between rich and poor.

-- After 2008 Olympics, turmoil will likely lead to loss of central control, development of regional centers.

-- Japan will succeed China as the principal Asian power.

-- Taiwan will align itself with Japan.

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Stratfor's decade forecast also covers other anticipated developments in Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America and Africa.

Stratfor, as described by Barron's as "a private quasi-CIA, (which) has enjoyed an increasing vogue in recent years as a result of its heady forecasts and many news breaks," is a private intelligence and security consulting organization based in Austin, Texas, with offices in Washington, D.C. and a global network of intelligence sources. It provides corporations, governments, financial institutions and individuals with geopolitical analyses and forecasts that assists them in managing risk and to anticipate political, economic and security issues vital to their interests.



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/© 2005 U.S. Newswire 202-347-2770/

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