China Economic Monitor Issue: 2021Q3

China

Economic

Monitor

Issue: 2021Q3

August 2021

cn

? 2021 KPMG Huazhen LLP, a People's Republic of China partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English

company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved. Printed in China.

1

Key takeaways

?

China¡¯s GDP grew by 7.9% from a year ago in Q2, moderating from the 18.3% pace in Q1 2021. This is attributable to a higher base for

year-over-year (yoy) comparison and resurgence of COVID-19 cases in some areas. Taking the past two years together, the annualised

average growth rate improved from 5.0% in Q1 to 5.5% in Q2. However, we expect economic growth to face more challenges in H2 due

to a higher base, lingering pandemic controls and uncertainty in the global environment. Overall, the economy grew 12.7% in the first half

of the year and we maintain our GDP forecast of 8.8% for the full year 2021.

?

Growth of overall industrial production has moderated slightly, whereas high-tech manufacturing continues to see faster growth.

Manufacturing investment growth also picked up from 13.5% in May to 16.4% in June, supported by rebounding corporate profits and

accelerating growth in the high-tech sector.

?

China¡¯s exports remained strong in H1, boosted by a solid recovery of global demand. China¡¯s imports also reached a record high in H1.

Exports have been a major driver of China¡¯s economic recovery since the pandemic and we expect its growth pace to moderate

somewhat in H2.

?

Consumption has seen a good rebound from a low base. But in contrast to strong growth of industrial production and exports, the trend

of consumption recovery, especially services, is still below the pre-pandemic level. Looking forward, we expect consumption to continue

to gradually recover as consumer confidence improves.

?

Driven by rising commodity prices, the producer price index (PPI) jumped 5.1% in H1, 3 ppt higher than that in Q1. The government has

taken a series of measures to rein in commodity prices and PPI growth edged down by 0.2 ppt to 8.8% in June. Meanwhile, OPEC+

reached a deal to increase oil production from August, a move that could help ease oil prices. We expect producer prices to stay at

relatively high levels but the pace of increase should decelerate in H2.

?

The central bank announced a 50bps cut on banks¡¯ required reserve ratio, releasing about RMB 1 trillion liquidity. Despite the cut, the

central bank emphasized that it has not changed its ¡°prudent¡± monetary stance. We think the cut is a pre-emptive move to mitigate

growth pressure in H2 and to ease liquidity pressure in the financial system.

?

New COVID-19 infections have moderated in South Asia and South America but have picked up in Asia Pacific and Europe recently.

According to WHO, the Delta variant of COVID-19 virus has shown higher transmissibility and remains a global threat.

? 2021 KPMG Huazhen LLP, a People's Republic of China partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English

company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved. Printed in China.

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New COVID-19 infections have moderated in South Asia but are picking up again in other regions

Daily new COVID-19 cases by region, seven-day moving average

450,000

? Global confirmed COVID-19 cases stood at

nearly 200 million including over 4 million

deaths as of 31 July. After a decline in May

and June, new cases are increasing again in

many regions.

400,000

350,000

? India¡¯s new infections have retreated after

the spike in May, but daily new cases

increased again to around 70k in the US and

30k in UK as of 31 July.

300,000

? China has also seen a resurgence of

infections in certain areas, such as

Guangdong, Yunnan and most recently

Nanjing.

250,000

200,000

Europe

Middle-East/Africa

150,000

Asia Pacific

North America

South America

South Asia

100,000

50,000

0

2020-02

2020-06

2020-10

2021-02

2021-06

Source: Wind, KPMG analysis. Data through 31 July 2021.

? 2021 KPMG Huazhen LLP, a People's Republic of China partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English

company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved. Printed in China.

3

Vaccine administrations are uneven across advanced and emerging economies

2,000

1652.8

Total number of vaccine doses administered, million

? As of 31 July, over 4.14 billion COVID-19

vaccine doses had been administered

around the world. China administered over

1.6 billion doses (about 1 billion doses were

administered during May¨CJuly).

1,500

1,000

461.5

500

345.6

142.5

92.1

84.9

84.0

73.3

72.7

68.5

Brazil

Germany

United

Kingdom

Japan

Turkey

France

Italy

0

China

140

125.1

120

India

United

States

Total number of vaccine doses administered per 100 people

114.8

103.4

100

? According to WHO, the Delta variant has

shown higher transmissibility and remains a

global threat in the coming months. The

available evidence suggests full vaccination

provides protection against severe disease

and death for this variant.

98.6

80

60

36.4

40

33.4

24.8

12.3

20

4.9

3.2

0

United

Kingdom

China

United

States

Advanced Emerging

economies markets

(ex. China)

India

? Vaccine penetration varies significantly

across countries ¡ª nearly 99 doses per 100

people in advanced economies but only 36

in the emerging markets (ex. China) and less

than 5 doses in low-income countries.

Indonesia South AfricaLow-income

countries

Kenya

? China has shipped over 570 million doses of

COVID-19 vaccines overseas. However,

more global efforts are needed to secure

vaccines around the world.

Source: Our World in Data, Data through 31 July 2021. KPMG analysis

? 2021 KPMG Huazhen LLP, a People's Republic of China partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English

company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved. Printed in China.

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The US and China are stil the key engines of the global economic recovery

Real GDP growth and forecast, %

12

10

8.8

8

6

4

4.9

4.3

5.7

4.4

4.64.3

5.3

6.0

7.0

2.3

1.9

2

? With continued vaccine rollouts and fiscal

support, advanced economies¡¯ growth was

revised up by 0.5 ppt to 5.6% in 2021.

Growth of developing economies has been

downgraded by 0.4 ppt to 6.3% this year,

mainly due to the emergence of the Delta

variant in India and some developing Asian

economies.

5.3

4.9

3.1

2.83.0

9.5

8.5

0

-2

-4

-6

-3.4

-3.1

-4.1

-4.8

-3.3

? The developing economies are expected to

face more uncertainties in the second half of

this year, such as uneven vaccine

distribution, and tight financial and fiscal

conditions.

-3.5

-6.6

-8

? In the latest update, the IMF maintained its

global GDP forecast at 6.0% for 2021, the

same as the April projection, but with

various revisions for different regions.

-8.0

-10

Japan

ASEAN-5 Russia

2020

Euro Area

Brazil

2021F

World

US

China

India

2022F

Source: IMF, KPMG analysis.

Note: China¡¯s 2021 forecast is by KPMG and the other forecasts are by the IMF. ASEAN-5 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.

? 2021 KPMG Huazhen LLP, a People's Republic of China partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organisation of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English

company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved. Printed in China.

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