China Community Profile



Readfield Community Profile(To be updated with 2020 Census Data as Available)This report contains a statistical profile of the town of Readfield and its people. It contains a great deal of numerical information about the community. Data like this will often confirm our own intuitions about what is happening within the community. More importantly, it can show early signs of new patterns and trends before we can see the impacts.Readfield is growing and evolving. This will require us to respond with new ideas and strategies. The information provided here will be used throughout the plan and will help inform us about how the community has changed. Future changes are also discussed. Growth projections will help us in planning for the increased housing and public service demands that we expect over the next couple of decades.Historical Population TrendsOver the course of its existence, Readfield’s population has fluctuated with a steady rise since 1950. Both economic and cultural factors have contributed to the changes to Readfield’s population as displayed in the follow table and graphed in the figure on the following page. Table 1: Population change: 1830 to 2010YearPopulationYearPopulation18301,884193088118402,037194098618501,98519501,02218601,51019601,02918701,45619701,25818801,24319801,94318901,17619902,033190099420002,360191099620102,598192091120182,548 Readfield experienced a significant population increase in the early 1800s but the population dropped 50% between 1840 and 1920. After reaching a low point in 1920, the population began to trend upwards and steadily rose until today. The biggest population jump was seen between 1970 and 1980 where the total population increased by nearly 700. Readfield’s population continues to grow as the population has steadily increased since 1970. Since 1980, Readfield has averaged nearly 20 new residents per year. Between 2010 and 2018, the population has declined (based off a 2018 estimate) which reflects regional trends in population decline. Kennebec Valley Council of Governments (KVCOG) does annual population estimates between census intervals. The estimates are based on what the town assessor reports as new housing added tot the tax rolls each year. The estimate for 2018 shows Readfield’s population at 2,548. If the figures are correct, the town has lost 50 residents in eight years.Figure 1: 180 Years of Population Change in ReadfieldThe census measures more than simply population. Other elements of the census are used in subsequent sections on housing and the local economy. Table 2 on the following page reports a breakdown of population characteristics over the past three census reports.This table is more than just numbers. It has real meaning in terms of planning for our community. It illustrates that the average age of the residents is increasing and that, although the number of households are still just about increasing, the number of single person households is increasing faster. Except in college towns (like Waterville), single person households tend to be elderly households. Elderly households tend to require a whole different set of public services.Just as important is the overall decrease in household size. In just 20 years, Readfield went from nearly three persons per household to 2.55. This is a national trend, reflecting social changes like smaller families, lower birth rates, and elderly independent living. But it has a real impact in Readfield, because if we have fewer persons in each household, we need more houses just to sustain the current population. For every 1,000 homes in 1980, we had 2,738 occupants. In 2000, 1,000 homes only contain 2,374 occupants. In fact, we needed an extra 157 homes in 2000, just to accommodate the same number of residents we had in 1980. In 2010, Readfield total households nearly reached 1000 – nearly 300 additional households over 20 years. PROBABLY MORE WITH 2020 CENSUSThese figures gain importance when we project the population and housing demand for the future. If the number of people in the houses continues to drop, the community will demand not only more houses, but smaller ones.Table 2: Population and Household Characteristics: 1990-2010General Population Characteristics199020002010Total Population2,0332,3602,548Male Population1,0101,1971,240Female Population1,0231,1631,308Median Age35.738.443.4Total Households722867998Family Households577674738Married Couple Family Households512576618Nonfamily Households145193260Nonfamily Households Living Alone120158196Households with children (under 18)302345295Single-Person Household 65 years +4045167Average Household Size2.812.312.55Source: 1990, 2000, 2010 CensusComponents of Population Change Between 1990 and 2010, the town’s population has increased by 515 persons. However, this is not solely a case of “emmigration.” Population change in a community is a result of both natural change and migration. Natural change is the difference between deaths and births in the community over a period of time. Migration accounts for people moving in and moving out. Net migration is population change not explained by births and deaths. Need additional info related to population change from clerkTable 3: Age Trends 1990 to 20101990 % of total2000 % of total2010 % of total20 year changePopulation2,0332,3602,598565(27.7%)Median Age35.738.443.47.7(21.5%)Under 5 years old142(6.9%)150(6.3%)117(4.5%)-25(-21.3%)5 - 17 years old362(17.8%)527(22.3%)496(19.1%)134(37.0%)18 - 24 years and older209(10.2%)135(5.7%)142(5.4%)-67(-47.1%)25 – 34 years old271(13.3%)233(9.8%)250(9.6%)-21(-8.4%)35 - 44 years old426(20.9%)401(16.9%)368(14.1%)58(-15.7%)45 - 54 years old255(12.5%)442(18.7%)475(18.2%)220(86.2%)55 - 64 years old186(9.1%)444(18.8%)217(16.4%)241(229.5%)65 years and older182(8.9%)255(10.8%)323(12.4%141(77.4%)Source: 1990, 2000 & 2010 CensusSome important population changes and trends:The median age increase is dramatic. This aging trend is statewide and Maine is one of the oldest states in the nation.The number of children (under 18 years old) increased between 1990 and 2000 but decreased between 2000 and 2010.The “family-age adults” age bracket (18 to 44) age category is decreasing significantly. Without those adults of child-bearing age, the population of children will continue to decline. These young families are also the primary market for the kind of suburban-style new housing that has been popular in Readfield.The “mature adult” age bracket (45 to 64) has grown a great deal over 20 years. This is a clear indication that the baby boom are no longer babies. The post-war glut of children are now entering their 60’s. As this group was the one that put enormous strain on the school system in the 60’s and 70’s, and on the housing market in the 80’s and 90’s, they are about to put the same strain on senior housing and health care services.The 65 and older age category was beginning to show the outliers in the baby boom in 2010. The real impact will begin in this coming decade. Using standard survival rate multipliers, we can estimate that the 2020 census will show about 2,030 persons aged 65 and older. The senior population will go from 11.5 to about 20 percent of the entire population. This will have short-term implications for housing, health care, transportation, recreation, and other services.Seasonal Population:The seasonal fluctuation in Readfiled has traditionally not been a major phenomenon; unlike many other central Maine communities that are more “lake towns”, and host many camps. But as the town grows and evolves, the impact of the seasonal population will weaken.Additional info/insights on seasonal populationsRegional PerspectiveReadfield’s development pattern is not at all unusual for Kennebec County. All of the towns in this area prospered as farm towns during the 1800’s, went into decline during westward expansion and the urbanization period of the late-19th-early 20th centuries, and began to grow again as suburbs and green spaces. The region’s largest growth period was in the 70’s and 80’s and has slowed since. Identify additional comparisonsPopulation Projections and ImpactsHow much will Readfield change in the future? Population projections provide the short and easy answer. These are mathematical extrapolations of past population growth and factors such as age distribution and household size. The Office of the State Economist publishes a projection to the year 2036 (they prepared it in 2016). They estimate Readfield’s population will be 2,388 (in 2036), a decline of about 220. This is based partially on the advancing age of the residents, not necessarily a reflection of the popularity of the town. The Kennebec Valley Council of governments also does population projections. It estimates a 2030 population between 2,842 and 3,100. This estimate is based solely on the overall slowing trend of population growth. It should be noted that both sources estimated a 2020 population of around 8,200 – 8,600 as of the last plan (2010) and we will be falling a little short of that.Notice that both of these projections calls for a decline but at significantly different levels. Then, what good are projections? Projections are not a crystal ball; they are based on assumptions of trends from the recent past. But, we do have the ability to manage our own trends. The way we manage trends today influences the population of the future. If we change the local economy or housing market, we change how the community grows or changes. What does the future hold for us if we follow the path of the projections described above? Or, what may happen to create a new future?Growth in population and households increases the demand for public services and commercial development. Unless specifically designed for senior citizens, each new household must have one or more jobs to support it. Younger, larger households will generate school children. Nearly all households require added waste management and road maintenance costs. All of these factors must be taken into account when projecting population growth.Local policies can also influence the style of housing and with it the character of the population. Neighborhoods with large lots tend to add to building costs and require expensive homes to be built. Many times, these homes are 3-, 4-, or 5-bedroom homes suitable for large families with young children. At the other extreme, housing units can be designed exclusively for senior 1- and 2-person households. This type of development would more closely match the demand for housing, but would not add as much to the growth potential of the town.Expand this section with updated 2020 census data ................
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