Robert O’Brien,



SYRACUSE UNIVERSITYMAXWELL SCHOOL OF CITIZENSHIP & PUBLIC AFFAIRSPAI 715: Rising China and Challenges to the Global Order Fall 2020Tuesdays, 6:00pm – 8:45pmProfessor Robert DalyOffice Hours: Remotely by appointmentEmail: robert.daly@Personal Meeting ID world is more connected than ever before, but … also more administered — its people more coerced and surveilled, more susceptible to the designs of authoritarian leaders and more dependent on the fortunes of mercurial international markets — than at any point in human history. ~ Ben Mauk, New York Times, 2019My politics, and my religion as well, are based entirely on the loveliness and value of ordinary human lives. The creaky apparatus called politics shelters or oppresses or threatens these lives, and is therefore of interest. ~ Marilynn Robinson, Commonweal, 2017 COURSE DESCRIPTIONThe United States and China are engaged in a decades-long competition for international pre-eminence. Each seeks to lead an evolving global order—the security architectures, trade and investment regimes, technologies, norms and practices, and values systems that shape the lives of nations and individuals. The great powers can’t both be preeminent and they too distrustful and too different to share leadership. Their rivalry is one of the greatest sources of strategic and economic uncertainty worldwide. It may be that neither nation will dominate the 21st Century as the U.S. dominated the 20th. Corporations, NGOs, and a shifting complex of transnational interest groups may have as much power in the coming decades as nation states. Any world order that emerges from the current confusion—if it makes sense to speak of “world order” at all—will feature more power centers of more kinds than did the world that America led since World War II.The course will take a historical and cultural approach to analyzing China’s views of its growing might and potential role in global governance. While China measures itself against the established power—the United States—its true yardstick of progress is the ambition of China itself, which has been formed by its glorious and tragic past. Some of the attitudes and practices that compel China to seek global power, however, may disqualify it to lead an open, rules-based order. The course has a three-part structure. We will first examine China’s traditional concepts of order and the post-WW II global structures that China both supports and challenges. The middle section of the course will look at China’s developing role in existing international organizations and the growing list of global institutions that China has created and leads. Finally, we will examine China’s impact on security, economic, technological, and ideological systems worldwide. LEARNING OUTCOMESStudents who participate actively in the course will be able to:Describe how China’s history and modern development shape its foreign policy and concepts of global order;Explain the responses of the United States and other nations to China’s emerging power; Outline China’s comparative strengths and weaknesses as a potential hegemon;Describe the key components and deficits of the global order before China’s rise and the threats and benefits China offers to existing systems;Discuss non-geostrategic factors that exert pressure on the global order;Make policy proposals in response China’s quest for global leadership;COURSE REQUIREMENTS AND STUDENT ASSESSMENTAttendance, Discussion and Reading Notes: 40 percent of gradeOne-third of each class session will be a lecture by the course instructor or a guest speaker. Two-thirds will be conducted as a seminar led by the students themselves (see below). All students are expected to participate actively in each discussion based on close reading of assigned essays and the interests and expertise they bring to the course. Each student should prepare reading notes consisting of 5 to 10 bulleted points or questions which will be turned in to the instructor by 4 PM on the day of each class session. Seminar Leadership: 20 percent of gradeEach student will be assigned to moderate one seminar discussion in partnership with other students. After completing the assigned readings, partners should plan to lead off the seminar by speaking for no more than five minutes each to tee up major themes and frame questions.Policy Brief and Presentation: 40 percent of gradeStudents will write one 3-page (single spaced) policy brief on a topic they will select in consultation with the instructor. Page one will be an issue backgrounder. Page two will be an analysis of interests, risks, and policy constraints. Page three will be a bulleted list of policy recommendations. See the syllabus below for due dates for proposals and first and final drafts. Each student will give a graded 10 to 15-minute presentation on his or her policy brief during one of the final two class sessions. Stay Safe Pledge and COVID-19 Safety Protocols Syracuse University's Stay Safe Pledge reflects the high value that we, as a university community, place on the well-being of our community members. This pledge defines norms for behavior that will promote community health and wellbeing. Classroom expectations include the following: wearing a mask that covers the nose and mouth at all times, maintaining a distance of six feet from others, and staying away from class if you feel unwell. Students who do not follow these norms will not be allowed to continue in face-to-face classes; repeated violations will be treated as violations of the Code of Student Conduct and may result in disciplinary action.Academic Integrity StatementSyracuse University’s Academic Integrity Policy reflects the high value that we, as a university community, place on honesty in academic work. The policy defines our expectations for academic honesty and holds students accountable for the integrity of all work they submit. Students should understand that it is their responsibility to learn about course-specific expectations, as well as about university-wide academic integrity expectations. The policy governs appropriate citation and use of sources, the integrity of work submitted in exams and assignments, and the veracity of signatures on attendance sheets and other verification of participation in class activities. The policy also prohibits students from submitting the same work in more than one class without receiving written authorization in advance from both instructors. Under the policy, students found in violation are subject to grade sanctions determined by the course instructor and nongrade sanctions determined by the School or College where the course is offered as described in the Violation and Sanction Classification Rubric. SU students are required to read an online summary of the University’s academic integrity expectations and provide an electronic signature agreeing to abide by them twice a year during pre-term check-in on MySlice.Syllabus Statement Regarding Disability-Related Accommodations I am pleased to work with students who have Accommodation Authorization Letters. If you believe that you need accommodations for a disability, please contact the Office of Disability Services (ODS), , or call 315-443-4498 for an appointment to discuss your needs and the process for requesting accommodations. ODS is responsible for coordinating disability-related accommodations and will issue “Accommodation Authorization Letters” to students as appropriate. Since accommodations may require early planning and generally are not provided retroactively, please contact ODS as soon as possible. Together, we will review and plan for appropriate accommodations prior to their use. Other Important Syracuse University PoliciesStudents should review the University’s policies regarding: Diversity and Disability ; the Religious Observances Notification and Policy, ; andOrange Success, Also, please review SU’s religious observances policy, . Under the policy, students are provided an opportunity to make up any examination, study, or work requirements that may be missed due to a religious observance provided they notify their instructors before the end of the second week of classes. For students who provide such notifications, I will schedule an opportunity to complete work before or following the religious observance and as close as possible to the date of the assignment listed in the syllabus.COURSE MATERIALSThe students will read Henry Kissinger’s World Order (Penguin, 2014) in its entirety. World Order will be supplemented by essays on weekly topics by Chinese, American, and third-country authors. Students are expected to complete all readings before coming to class.SCHEDULE OF CLASSES AND REQUIRED READING & ASSIGNMENTSAugust 25The Old Sino-Centric WorldCourse introduction, self-introductions, lecture, and discussionNo reading is assigned for the shopping week meeting. September 1China’s Modern Development and Expanding InterestsKissinger: Introduction Robert O’Brien, The Chinese Communist Party’s Ideology and Global Ambitions, Pompeo, Communist China and the Free World’s Future, Yi, Interview on Current China-US Relations, Baocheng, Reviving the Cold War is Anachronistic, September 8The Existing Order: Global? Liberal? Rules-Based? Adequate? Kissinger: Chapter 1Martin Wolf, Bretton Woods at 75: Global Co-Operation Under Threat, Financial Times, ()Robert Kagan, Not Fade Away: The Myth of American Decline ()James Fallows, How America Can Rise Again Kissinger, The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order, , Life Post-Covid 19, Research Center, How Americans envision a post-pandemic world order, Leaders: TBDSeptember 15Vision and Revisionism: China’s Role in International OrganizationsKissinger: Chapter 2Yan Xuetong, The Age of Uneasy Peace: Chinese Power in a Divided World, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2019 () 3. Kristine Lee, It’s Not Just the WHO: How China Is Moving on the Whole U.N., . Colum Lynch, China’s Soft Power Grab, . Tung Cheng-Chia and Alan H. Yang, How China is Remaking the UN in its Own Image, . Simon Plosker, China Joins Human Rights Panel, . David Lawder, China urges World Bank to suspend debt payments for poorest countries, Leaders: TBDSeptember 22China-founded Organizations: SCO, BRICS, AIIB Kissinger: Chapter 3Jonathan Hillman, A ‘China Model?’ Beijing’s Promotion of Alternative Global Norms and Standards, de Carvalho,? SCO and BRICS: Bridges to a Shared Future, )Jean-Guy Carrier, SCO, AIIB Show China’s Evolving Leadership Role, () Seminar Leaders: TBDOctober 6The Belt & Road InitiativeKissinger: Chapter 5Nadège Rolland, A Concise Guide to the Belt and Road Initiative, ()Lancaster, Rubin, and Rapp-Hooper, What the COVID-19 Pandemic May Mean for China's Belt and Road Initiative, Leaders: TBDPolicy brief proposals dueOctober 13China’s Regional Initiatives: Russia, Africa, 17+1, CELAC Kissinger: Chapter 4Nadège Rolland, A China-Russia Condominium Over Eurasia, IISS 2019 ()Panos Mourdoukoutas, What China Wants From Africa? Everything, ()Daniel Yang, How China’s Africa Alliance is Shifting World Order, ()Wu Guoxiu & Bao Hongwei, A call for China-Africa digital economy cooperation, & Hill, Africa Starts to Have Second Thoughts About That Chinese Money, Pei, China’s Expensive Bet on Africa Has Failed, Stott, China cleans up in Latin America as US flounders over coronavirus, Myers, The Reasons for China’s Cooling Interest in Latin America, Americas Quarterly, 2019 ()Beth Daley, How China Lost Central and Eastern Europe, Corre & Brattberg, How the Coronavirus Pandemic Shattered Europe’s Illusions of China, Lau, China Shows Support for Belarusian Leader, Leaders: TBDOctober 20China’ Military Kissinger: Chapter 6Wang Jisi, China’s Search for a Grand Strategy, Foreign Affairs, 2011 ()Columbia University, Saltzman Forum Panel II: The Rise of China and Security Challenges in Asia, ()M. Taylor Fravel, Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy Since 1949, T. Matthews, The New Nuclear Threat, Leaders: TBDOctober 27Innovation as a Path to PowerKissinger: Chapter 7Ross Andersen, The Panopticon is Already Here, McBride and Andrew Chatzky, Is ‘Made in China 2025’ a Threat to Global Trade?, Council on Foreign Relations, 2019 () Samm Sacks, The US-China Technology Relationship, Huawei, TikTok, and More, Cher, ‘Superpower marathon’: U.S. may lead China in tech right now — but Beijing has the strength to catch up, Kharpal, Power is ‘up for grabs’: Behind China’s plan to shape the future of next-generation tech, Leaders: TBDNovember 3Money Matters: Trade, Currency, Finance, LoansKissinger: Chapter 8Yukon Huang, Did China Break the World Economic Order?: No Other Countries’ Reactions to its Rise are a Greater Threat, New York Times, 2019 ()The Economist, The financial world’s nervous system is being rewired, Lardy, Despite the rhetoric, US-China financial decoupling is not happening, Economist, The Trump administration wants a US-China commercial split, , Zhou, and Yao, In China, fears of financial Iron Curtain as U.S. tensions rise, Leaders: TBDNovember 10China’s Soft PowerKissinger: Chapter 9Melanie Hart and Blaine Johnson, Mapping China’s Global Governance Ambitions, Center for American Progress, 2019 ()Robert Daly, A Rise Without Shine, Carmina, The State of China’s Soft Power in 2020, Leaders: TBDPrinted first draft of policy briefs dueNovember 17Global Responses to a Risen ChinaKissinger: ConclusionSeminar Leaders: TBDFirst draft suggestions returned to studentsNovember 24 Student Policy Brief Presentations IOrder of presentations TBDDecember 1 Student Policy Brief Presentations II and Final RemarksOrder of presentations TBDPrinted final draft of policy briefs due ................
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