HYPERSONIC BOOST-GLIDE SYSTEMS AND HYPERSONIC CRUISE MISSILES - SIPRI

HYPERSONIC BOOST-GLIDE SYSTEMS AND HYPERSONIC CRUISE MISSILES

Challenges for the Missile Technology Control Regime

kolja brockmann and dmitry stefanovich

STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE

SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.

The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute.

GOVERNING BOARD

Ambassador Jan Eliasson, Chair (Sweden) Dr Mohamed Ibn Chambas (Ghana) Ambassador Chan Heng Chee (Singapore) Jean-Marie Gu?henno (France) Dr Radha Kumar (India) Dr Patricia Lewis (Ireland/United Kingdom) Dr Jessica Tuchman Mathews (United States) Dr Feodor Voitolovsky (Russia)

DIRECTOR

Dan Smith (United Kingdom)

HYPERSONIC BOOST-GLIDE SYSTEMS AND HYPERSONIC CRUISE MISSILES

Challenges for the Missile Technology Control Regime kolja brockmann and dmitry stefanovich

April 2022

Contents

Acknowledgements

iv

Summary

v

Abbreviations

vii

1. Introduction

1

Box 1.1. The Missile Technology Control Regime

2

2. Hypersonic boost-glide systems and hypersonic cruise missiles

4

Hypersonic speed, manoeuvrability and hypersonic flight trajectories

4

Hypersonic boost-glide systems

6

Hypersonic cruise missiles

7

Drivers and status of hypersonic missile development and proliferation

7

Figure 2.1. True speed by altitude at Mach 5

5

Figure 2.2. Notional trajectories of ballistic missiles, hypersonic boost-glide

6

systems and aeroballistic missiles

Figure 2.3. A cutaway diagram of subsystems packaging of an X-51A scramjet

7

engine demonstrator

Table 2.1. Selected current hypersonic missile systems and development

9

programmes

3. Conventional?nuclear entanglement and MTCR controls on

12

dual-capable delivery systems

Conventional?nuclear entanglement and the case of HGVs and HCMs

12

MTCR controls on nuclear and dual-capable delivery systems

13

4. Applying MTCR export controls to hypersonic boost-glide systems

15

and hypersonic cruise missiles

Definitional ambiguities concerning HGVs and HCMs

15

Current coverage of hypersonic missile technology by the MTCR annex

17

Export controls in the context of civilian space programmes, reusable rockets 20

and crewed spacecraft

Table 4.1. Coverage of selected items required for hypersonic missile systems 16

by the MTCR Equipment, Software and Technology Annex

5. Recommendations

22

About the authors

25

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