PDF Strategic Report for Ford Motor Company - Pomona College

[Pages:28]Strategic Report for Ford Motor Company

Rhett Dornbach-Bender Bill Slade

Joe Thorpe April 20, 2009

Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)

Table of Contents

Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................3 Company Overview...........................................................................................................................4

History............................................................................................................................................... 4 Business Model and Market Overview.........................................................................................5 Competitive Analysis........................................................................................................................7 Internal Rivalry.................................................................................................................................7 Supplier Power ................................................................................................................................. 9 Buyer Power ..................................................................................................................................... 9 Entry and Exit................................................................................................................................10 Substitutes ....................................................................................................................................... 11 Complements .................................................................................................................................12 SWOT .................................................................................................................................................13 Strengths .........................................................................................................................................13 Weaknesses ..................................................................................................................................... 13 Opportunities .................................................................................................................................14 Threats............................................................................................................................................. 14 Financial Analysis ...........................................................................................................................15 Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 15 Profitability and Growth ..............................................................................................................16 Liquidity and Solvency..................................................................................................................18 Strategic Recommendations ........................................................................................................20 Divest Volvo ..................................................................................................................................21 Factory and Supply Chain Management ....................................................................................22 Prepare for Liquidation of Chrysler and/or Bankruptcy of GM ...........................................23 Product Differentiation ................................................................................................................25 Shift Production to Mexico and Eastern Europe .....................................................................26 Expand Market Share in China and India..................................................................................27 References .........................................................................................................................................28

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Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)

Executive Summary

Ford Motor Company faces many strategic challenges during these volatile economic times. In the next month and a half, two of its major competitors may be forced to file for bankruptcy or liquidate assets. As of this writing, Ford is the most financially sound American car manufacturer and possesses enough cash on hand to continue operations through fiscal year 2009, provided there are no further dramatic deteriorations in the market. Analysts believe that the company will not need to seek government funding unless car sales for 2010 are below 12 million. While Ford, like all major car companies at this time, faces serious challenges, we assert that opportunities exist during any time of crisis. We believe that Ford can, with our help, break even in fiscal year 2010 barring further macroeconomic deterioration.

This report makes the following recommendations to Ford Motor Company: 1) Ford should continue attempts to sell off the Volvo brand. The funds from this sale should provide Ford with increased flexibility during the coming year as well as contribute to existing strategic goals. 2) Ford should extensively prepare for the bankruptcy of Chrysler and/or General Motors. Such bankruptcies pose a great deal of risk to Ford, including but not limited to: the possibility that the government may chose a winner, the potential for GM to emerge from bankruptcy with a significant cost advantage, and supply chain disruption resulting from bankruptcies of mutual suppliers. While we believe that any liquidation of Chrysler should be viewed as a strategic opportunity, we remain deeply concerned about how the future of GM may impact Ford. In the short term, we believe that Ford should continue to capitalize on its competitors' instability and steal market share. 3) We have faith in management's `One Ford' strategy and believe that the Ford Fiesta is poised for success in North America, if marketed correctly and executed properly. Continued differentiation through the creation of defining style and feature set exclusive to Ford vehicles is also a positive step in the long run.

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Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)

4) We recommend that, wherever possible, Ford should shift production from the United States and the Euro Zone to Mexico and Eastern Europe.

5) We recommend that Ford exploit current opportunities in China and apply capital to ramp up its sales and market share. In the long run, Ford must also focus on expanding its share in India. We do not, however, recommend that Ford invest significant capital in the Indian market at this time.

We at Oasis Consulting believe that these recommendations are in line with the Ford philosophy and are in touch with its history as a family owned company. It is important to note that this report is only current as of April 20th, 2009. Industry circumstances are rapidly changing, and Ford's optimal next steps cannot be fully expounded upon until specific information regarding GM and Chrysler's future is announced. Oasis Consulting looks forward to the opportunity to provide continued support for Ford Motor Company as the situation with Chrysler and General Motors develops, and believe that this report sets forward the optimal strategy for the company at this juncture in time.

Company Overview

History

Ford Motor Company was founded in 1903 by Henry Ford and has continuously remained under family ownership since this time. The company developed and implemented assembly line production by the release of the Model T in 1909, and produced planes and vehicles for the Allies in World War II. Ford has operated internationally since 1904, when it opened a branch in Canada to gain access to Commonwealth markets. For the first half of the 21st Century, Ford remained the dominant car manufacturer within the market it had effectively created. In 1956, Toyota exported its first automobile to the United States, and began acquiring market share. In hindsight this was a turning point in the U.S. market, and as the 21st Century drew to a close Ford faced declining market share and had difficulty remaining competitive in the global marketplace. Ford was particularly inhibited by substantial legacy

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Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)

costs--primarily from employee pensions and healthcare benefits--and falling demand for its most profitable lines of vehicles.

In 1996 the company launched the `Ford 2000' initiative to streamline supply lines and reorganize the company's worldwide operations into a more cohesive unit. In spite of some important successes, including the popular Ford Focus model and a streamlined organizational structure, costs at Ford remained higher than most of the firm's competitors. In 2006, Ford posted its biggest operating loss to date: $12.6 billion. This coincided with continued deterioration in market share, with the majority of these losses being captured by Toyota and General Motors. From 1997 to 2007, Ford's United States market share plummeted from 25% to 15%.

In 2006, Alan Mulally was hired as CEO and took over a company at the precipice of failure. Mulally announced a new restructuring plan in 2006 entitled `The Way Forward', designed to "better align capacity to demand". At its core, this plan involved the closure of seven assembly plants and strategic reorientation towards `One Ford'. Championed by Mulally, this strategy focuses on creating a standard Ford personality which is seen and felt within every automobile produced by the company. In addition, the plan entails standardizing chassis worldwide and a greater focus on the core Ford nameplate. As a part of this plan, Ford mortgaged all of its assets--both physical and intellectual property--in December 2006 for a $23.4 billion line of credit. While originally seen as a risky and potentially desperate move, this timely acquisition of capital has made Ford the most stable of the Big Three carmakers. The company also divested some of its non-Ford brands during this time, selling Jaguar and Land Rover to Tata Motors for $2.3 billion in 2008. Ford is also currently attempting to sell Volvo, which it purchased in 1999 for $6.5 billion.

Business Model and Market Overview

Ford Motor Company currently employs approximately 213,000 workers worldwide and markets vehicles under four primary brands: Ford, Lincoln, Mercury, and Volvo. The firm is divided into two departments, Automotive and Financial Services. Ford Credit offers

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Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)

vehicle financing to both retail consumers and to dealers. Approximately forty percent of vehicles sold by Ford, Lincoln, and Mercury dealerships within the United States were financed by Ford Credit in 2008, a number which has remained stable in the past three years. In Europe, the only other region with reported data, this figure has remained steadily around 27%. Conversely, financing for wholesale purchases by dealerships is nearly exclusively (98%) done by Ford Credit in Europe whereas in the U.S. this number is slightly below eighty percent. Ford Credit also plays a role in financing dealership purchases of real estate and other larger capital expenditures by the company and its affiliates.

Ford's automotive segment designs, manufactures, and services cars, trucks, SUVs, and vehicle parts. This sector is primarily broken down by region: North America, South America, Europe, and Asia Pacific Africa. The only exception to this regional model is Volvo, which operates as a separate subsector and manages all Volvo sales worldwide.

Ford retail sales operate under a dealership model, where dealerships sign exclusive contracts with the company to sell Ford vehicles. At the close of 2008, Ford operated nearly 3,800 dealerships within the United States. Approximately half of these dealerships sold only the Ford brand, with another quarter selling Ford, Lincoln, and Mercury.1

Production of vehicles for Ford typically takes within 20 days from point of order to shipping, meaning the firm faces little to no backlog or inventory buildup. Production is typically higher in the first two quarters to accommodate peak seasonal demand, which occurs in the spring and summer.

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Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)

Competitive Analysis

Internal Rivalry Supplier Power Buyer Power Entry and Exit Substitutes Complements

FORCE

STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE High High Low High Low Medium

Internal Rivalry

The automotive industry is noted for its intense rivalry, and within the United States market Ford faces five major competitors: GM, Toyota, Chrysler, Honda, and Nissan.

Chart One

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Toyota, Honda, and Nissan have grown in market share largely as a result of their ability to deliver better products at lower prices, particularly for more fuel efficient smaller vehicles. Because of lower labor costs and greater efficiency (typically measured by the number of hours needed to produce each vehicle), these companies have been able to turn a profit with smaller vehicles. In the past, Ford has differentiated itself by focusing on more profitable SUV and truck lines while often losing money on its smaller vehicles. Given changing demand, this strategy is no longer feasible. The 2008 Harbour Report found extreme differences in profit per vehicle between The Big Three (General Motors, Chrysler, and

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Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)

Ford) and the foreign automobile producers within the U.S. markets. Whereas Toyota makes approximately $922 profit per vehicle sold, estimates show that Ford lost $1,467 per vehicle in 2008 and General Motors lost $729.3 Toyota is now the undisputed lead in vehicle production worldwide. In 2008, Toyota sold nearly nine million vehicles, compared to General Motors' 8.3 million. In recent years Toyota has not only been one of the most profitable producers, but also the most efficient: in 2008, it took an industry shortest average of 30.37 hours to produce a vehicle from start to finish.4

Within Europe, Ford's main competitors are Volkswagen, PSA (Peugeot), Renault, GM, and Fiat. Volkswagen is the dominant producer in the region, and has seen strong growth in the past four years. Ford experienced much greater success at turning a profit on small vehicles in the region, and the `One Ford' strategy intends to take advantage of this. Overall, Ford has managed to remain competitive in Europe by designing cars which appeal to European tastes and by increasing the quality ratings of its vehicles. This has led to stable market share and profits over the past three years, and is demonstrative of Ford's ability to achieve success with smaller vehicles.

Chart Two

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Note: Figures are based on new car registrations.

Because Ford has not received bailout money, it generally has more flexibility than GM and Chrysler in the current market. While there is a great deal of internal rivalry, industry upheaval appears to be imminent.

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