DOGAMI TIM-Coos-05, Plate 1: Local-source (Cascadia ...

43?26'0"N

STATE OF OREGON DEPARTMENT OF GEOLOGY AND MINERAL INDUSTRIES Larry Givens, Governing Board Chair Vicki S. McConnell, Director and State Geologist Don W.T. Lewis, Assistant Director Rachel R. Lyles Smith, Project Operations Manager Ian P. Madin, Chief Scientist

124?20'0"W

Local Source (Cascadia Subduction Zone) Tsunami Inundation Map Coos Bay - North Bend, Oregon

2012

124?18'0"W

124?16'0"W

124?14'0"W

TRANS-PACIFIC LN

TRANS-PACIFIC LN

JORDAN COVE RD

100

25

5

Jordan Cove

City of North Bend

124?12'0"W

Tsunami Inundation Map Coos-05

Tsunami Inundation Maps for Coos Bay - North Bend, Coos County, Oregon

Plate 1

ROBIN RD

LN SWALLOW RD

101

7

EAST BAY RD

100

North Bay RFPD

MALLARD LN

W DOVE

C

ROSE MTN LN MCCLURG LN

43?26'0"N

E.C. RD 200 100

oos Bay

City of Coos Bay City of North Bend

43?24'0"N

43?24'0"N

200 100 25 25

200

100 25 25

43?22'0"N

43?22'0"N

Coos

City of Coos Bay

Bay

MAXWELL

RD ROOSEVELT ST

LOOP

AIRPORT COLORADO AVE

AIRPORT WAY LN

North Bend Fire

MAPLE

MAPLE ST

COLORADO ARTHUR ST HAYES ST JOHNSON ST

LEAF ST

ST CLEVELAND ST GARFIELD ST

GRANT ST LINCOLN ST

STEELHEAD

VIRGINIA AVE

WASHINGTON AVE

MONTANA AVE CONNECTICUT AVE

CALIFORNIA AVE

11TH ST

City of North Bend

SHERMAN AVE WINSOR AVE

Pony Slough

FERRY RD 101

BAYVIEW AVE

BAY ST

FLORIDA AVE

MCPHERSON AVE UNION AVE

CAPE ARAGO HWY

101

North Bend

Fire

Oregon Coast

Te c h n o lo g y School

North Bend Police

D ep a rtm e n t

City of North Bend

8

EAST BAY RD

100

COURSE

PRIMROSE

LN GOLF

CARLSON HTS LN

LN

200

VINE RD

City of Coos Bay

BRIDGE

KIRKENDALL LN VIEW LN

Pac i f i c Oc e a n

25

200 100

25

HAM ILTON AV E MONROE AVE

200 100 25

WILDBERRY RD

SEAGATE AVE AUGUSTINE ST

FENWICK ST SANFORD ST

CROCKER ST

200 100

1

2

100 25

COOS

HEAD RD

CAPE

ARAGO

HWY

Oregon Institute of Marine B io lo g y

GUANO ROCK LN

3

Charleston

C h ar le sto n RFPD

SUNRISE RD ROOSEVELT RD

25 WILDAHL RD TROLLER RD

BOAT BASIN RD

200 100

MEXEY E

LOOP

100 RAIL RD

25

100 25

25

25 25

ay B

Coos

540

MILUK

BEACON LN ROBERTSON LN WINDY LN

DR

Ta rhe e l Reservoi r

HWY

ARAG O

WALLACE RD

S BARVIEW RD

CAP E MISTY RD

MARTIN DR

A

Barview

A'

540

N SPRING RD

FLOWER RD GRAND RD N JADE RD

WILSHIRE LN

CARAWAY LN

SHELL LN

SAND DOLLAR LN

TERRAMAR RD

Joe Ney Sl ough

SAWALI LN

C h ar le sto n RFPD

OYSTER COVE LN

4

RD

WYG ANT

HWY

540

C h ar le sto n RFPD

CAP E

ARAG O

DOLEZAL LN SPAW LN

KELLOGG LN

WELCH RD

PENNY RD

GRINNELL LN TARHEEL LN

200

200

100 25

City of Coos Bay

City of Coos Bay

JOHN AVE TAYLOR AVE

Lower Empi re Lake

C

i

t

LAK

y o

E

f

SH

C

ORE

oos

DR

Bay

Up per Empi re Lake

Southw es te rn Oregon Comm unity

C o lle g e

13TH ST 14TH ST

GRANT ST FIR ST PINE ST OAK ST ASH ST

17TH ST

S COLLEGE WAY CEDAR ST

N MAIN ST N MORRISON ST

N MARPLE ST

ST

N EMPIRE BLVD

N WASSON CAMMANN ST

N SCHONEMAN ST

ACKERMAN ST

SCHETTER AVE

N

Oregon State Police

S MILL ST HWY

ARAG O

CAP E

Coos Bay

M

I

C

H

I

G

A

N

Fire - E

AVE

S m

tatio pire

n

NOBLE AVE

Sunset Middle School

S MAIN ST

SALMON ST MARYLAND AVE

Madison Elem entary

School

FLANAGAN AVE

ST NEESE

NEWMARK AVE

CAPE ARAGO HWY

NORMAN AVE

ST

WALLACE

OCEAN BLVD NW

LACLAIR ST

Oregon Coast Culinary Institute

540

THOMAS ST

Gold Coast SDA Christian

School

LINDBERG AVE

S EMPIRE BLVD

540

T

GARFIELD ST

MERRILL ST

RADAR RD

S T

L S T

WALNUT AVE

35TH ST

SHOREPINES AVE

FILMORE ST

S WAL S WASSON AMMANN S

34TH ST

C

LINDY LN

S

ARAGO AVE WEBSTER AVE BLANCO AVE

FULTON AV E

CAMERON LN

PLYM OUTH AVE KENTUCKY AVE MARSHALL AVE

LP

FIR ST PINE ST

OAK ST ASH ST

LEWIS ST STATE ST

LOMBARD ST CLARK ST COMMERCIAL ST

North Bend Fire

INLAND DR

SPRUCE ST

City of North Bend City of Coos Bay

N 26TH ST

MADRONA ST

WOODLAND DR

MYRTLE ST CAPE ARAGO HWY

PONY CREEK RD ALDER RIDGE

12TH ST

13TH ST

6

14TH CT

15TH ST

North Bend Senior High School

16TH ST

PACIFIC AVE

North Bend Middle School

DR

VERMONT AVE

H illcre s t Elem entary

School

OREGON AVE

MARYLAND AVE

UNION AVE

WALL ST LEWIS ST

OHIO AVE

K in g s view C h ris tia n School

SCOTT

NEWMARK ST

STATE S T COMMERCIAL ST

CLARK ST

EXCHANGE ST

CHESTER ST

LN FORD LN

KINNEY RD

WAITE ST

Oregon Coast Te c h n o lo g y

School

VISTA DR

Bay Clinic

THOMPSON RD

N 15TH CT

TOWER ST 25TH ST

North Bend Medical Center

Bay Area Hospital

T EAKW OO D AVE

C h ris t L u th er an School

PINE AVE

TREMONT AVE

City of North Bend

100 N 11TH ST

N 8TH ST 25

CAMMANN RD JEFFERSON ST

PREFONTAINE DR

N17THST N 15TH ST

City of Coos Bay

N BAYSHORE DR N 6TH ST

KOOS

100 OCEAN BLVD

N 28TH CT

INLET

City of Coos Bay

City of Coos Bay

200

Up per Pony

100

Creek Reservoir

TWIG TER

Lake Mer r i t t

N 19TH ST

SE TIMBERLINE DR

JUNIPER AVE

LINCOLN RD

City of Coos Bay

IDA LN

BUTLER RD

N 14TH ST 200

BAY BLVD HEMLOCK AVE

N 7TH ST N 7TH CT

N FRONT ST

N 2ND ST N BROADWAY ST

FIR AVE

RD

7TH

N 3RD CT

D

R 200

N 10TH ST

TELEGRAPH

100 25

12TH TER

8TH TER

N 13TH ST N 12TH ST N 11TH ST

CENTRAL AVE

COMMERCIAL AVE

B'

ANDERSON AVE

PARK AVE

MARKET AVE

Police D ep a rtm e n t

Central Fire Station

B

9

Blossom Gulch Elem entary School

S 4TH ST

ELROD AVE

S 9TH CT S 9TH ST

25

S 6TH ST

S BROADWAY ST

City of Coos Bay

200 100

S 11TH ST

Resource Link Charter

School Marshfield Senior High School

S 7TH ST

GOLDEN AVE HALL AVE INGERSOLL ST

S 2ND ST

S 1ST ST

s Slough

25

Isthmu

D ST

MERCHANT ST 1ST AVE 2RD AVE

y Co os B

a

A ST

M illic o m a In term e d ia te

School Coos Bay Fire Station - Eastside

6TH AVE

8TH AVE 10TH AVE

200

100 PETITT LN

25

RUSSELL RD

MISTY

SETHER LN RIDGE LN

N LN OREGON LN PACIFIC LN

200 100

25

City of Coos Bay

F ST

241 C O O S

RIVER

HWY

D ST

E ST

CEDAR DR

16TH AVE

9TH AVE

14TH AVE 15TH AVE 17TH AVE

S 8TH ST

COOS BAY CHARLESON RD

City of Coos Bay

City of Coos Bay

LIBBY LN

200 100

CLOVER

EVEREST

RD CASCADE LN

SIERRA RD

EAST PORT RD

SHASTA RD

City of Coos Bay

IDAHO DR

DAKOTA AVE

WASHINGTON AVE OREGON AVE

IDAHO AVE

Coalb

JOHNSON AVE

KRUSE AVE

101

LOCKHART AVE

COAL BANK LN

S 19TH ST S 17TH ST

S 16TH ST S 15TH ST SOUTHWEST BLVD

ank Sl ough

200 PENNSYLVANIA AVE

100

25

HOBBY LN

ASHLEY

RD

ROSE LN

200

200 100

S 10TH ST S FRONT ST

ANDREWS RD

EVERETT RD

200 100 25

FLANAGAN RD

101

Bunker

Hill L N

MULLEN RD

I ST 241 COOS RIVER HWY

City of Coos Bay

SIGLUN LN

IVY HILLS RD

EMPIRE

THIRD RD

ADAMS LN

CARLISLE LN 101

LORAIN LN

ISTHMUS HTS CUTOFF LN

LAUREL

GARFIELD LN

PARK LN

JOY LN

20TH LN

ISTHMUS HTS RD

DR NOAH RD FRUITDALE RD RED DIKE RD

200 100 25

GARDEN LN

SNEDDEN LN

100 25

KIMBLE LN

ROSS INLET RD

200 100

ROSS INLET RD

25 SCOVILLE LN

200 100 25

124?20'0"W

Introduction

The Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) has been identifying and mapping the tsunami inundation hazard along the Oregon coast since 1994. In Oregon, DOGAMI manages the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, which has been administered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) since 1995. DOGAMI's work is designed to help cities, counties, and other sites in coastal areas reduce the potential for disastrous tsunamirelated consequences by understanding and mitigating this geologic hazard. Using federal funding awarded by NOAA, DOGAMI has developed a new generation of tsunami inundation maps to help residents and visitors along the entire Oregon coast prepare for the next Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake and tsunami.

The CSZ is the tectonic plate boundary between the North American Plate and the Juan de Fuca Plate (Figure 1). These plates are converging at a rate of about 1.5 inches per year, but the movement is not smooth and continuous. Rather, the plates lock in place, and unreleased energy builds over time. At intervals, this accumulated energy is violently released in the form of a megathrust earthquake rupture, where the North American Plate suddenly slips westward over the Juan de Fuca Plate. This rupture causes a vertical displacement of water that creates a tsunami (Figure 2). Similar rupture processes and tsunamis have occurred elsewhere on the planet where subduction zones exist: for example, offshore Chile in 1960 and 2010, offshore Alaska in 1964, near Sumatra in 2004, and offshore Japan in March 2011.

CSZ Frequency: Comprehensive research of the offshore geologic record indicates that at least 19 major ruptures of the full length of the CSZ have occurred off the Oregon coast over the past 10,000 years (Figure 3). All 19 of these full-rupture CSZ events were likely magnitude 8.9 to 9.2 earthquakes (Witter and others, 2011). The most recent CSZ event happened 312 years ago on January 26, 1700. Sand deposits carried onshore and left by the 1700 event have been found 1.2 miles inland; older tsunami sand deposits have also been discovered in estuaries 6 miles inland. As shown in Figure 3, the range in time between these 19 events varies from 110 to 1,150 years, with a median time interval of 490 years. In 2008 the United States Geological Survey (USGS) released the results of a study announcing that the probability of a magnitude 8-9 CSZ earthquake occurring over the next 30 years is 10% and that such earthquakes occur about every 500 years (WGCEP, 2008).

Cascadia Subduction Zone Setting

CSZ Model Specifications: The sizes of the earthquake and its resultant tsunami are primarily driven by the amount and geometry of the slip that takes place when the North American Plate snaps westward over the Juan de Fuca Plate during a CSZ event. DOGAMI has modeled a wide range of earthquake and tsunami sizes that take into account different fault geometries that could amplify the amount of seawater displacement and increase tsunami inundation. Seismic geophysical profiles show that there may be a steep splay fault running nearly parallel to the CSZ but closer to the Oregon coastline (Figure 1). The effect of this splay fault moving during a full-rupture CSZ event would be an increase in the amount of vertical displacement of the Pacific Ocean, resulting in an increase of the tsunami inundation onshore in Oregon. DOGAMI has also incorporated physical evidence that suggests that portions of the coast may drop 4 to 10 feet during the earthquake; this effect is known as subsidence. Detailed information on fault geometries, subsidence, computer models, and the methodology used to create the tsunami scenarios presented on this map can be found in DOGAMI Special Papers 41 (Priest and others, 2009) and 43 (Witter and others, 2011).

Map Explanation

This tsunami inundation map displays the output of computer models representing five selected tsunami scenarios, all of which include the earthquake-produced subsidence and the tsunamiamplifying effects of the splay fault. Each scenario assumes that a tsunami occurs at Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) tide; MHHW is defined as the average height of the higher high tides observed over an 18-year period at the Port Orford tide gauge. To make it easier to understand this scientific material and to enhance the educational aspects of hazard mitigation and response, the five scenarios are labeled as "T-shirt sizes"ranging from Small, Medium, Large, Extra Large, to Extra Extra Large (S, M, L, XL, XXL). The map legend depicts the respective amounts of slip, the frequency of occurrence, and the earthquake magnitude for these five scenarios. Figure 4 shows the cumulative number of buildings inundated within the map area.

The computer simulation model output is provided to DOGAMI as millions of points with values that indicate whether the location of each point is wet or dry. These points are converted to wet and dry contour lines that form the extent of inundation. The transition area between the wet and dry contour lines is termed the Wet/Dry Zone, which equates to the amount of error in the model when determining the maximum inundation for the each scenario. Only the XXL Wet/Dry Zone is shown on this map.

124?18'0"W

This map also shows the regulatory tsunami inundation line (Oregon Revised Statutes 455.446 and 455.447), commonly known as the Senate Bill 379 line. Senate Bill 379 (1995) instructed DOGAMI to establish the area of expected tsunami inundation based on scientific evidence and tsunami modeling in order to prohibit the construction of new essential and special occupancy structures in this tsunami inundation zone, (Priest, 1995). Time Series Graphs and Wave Elevation Profiles: In addition to the tsunami scenarios, the computer model produces time series data for "gauge"locations in the area. These points are simulated gauge stations that record the time, in seconds, of the tsunami wave arrival and the wave height observed for each time interval. It is especially noteworthy that the greatest wave height and velocity observed are not necessarily associated with the first tsunami wave to arrive onshore. Therefore evacuees should not assume that the tsunami event is over until the proper authorities have sounded the allclear signal at the end of the evacuation. Figure 5 depicts time series data for the map plate area. Figure 6 (profiles A-A' and B-B') depicts the overall wave height and inundation extent for all five scenarios at select profiles on this map.

Occurrence and Relative Size of Cascadia Subduction Zone Megathrust Earthquakes

Figure 3: This chart depicts the timing, frequency, and magnitude of the last 19 great Cascadia Subduction Zone events over the past 10,000 years. The most recent event occurred on January 26, 1700. The 1700 event is considered to be a "medium sized"event. The data used to create this chart came from research that examined the many submarine landslides, known as "turbidites," that are triggered only by these great earthquakes (Witter and others, 2011). The loose correlation is "the bigger the turbidite, the bigger the earthquake."

124?16'0"W

Coos Bay Area Buildings within Tsunami Inundation Zones

Figure 4: The table and chart show the number of buildings inundated for each "tsunami T-shirt scenario"for cities and unincorporated portions of the map.

How Tsunamis Occur

Figure 1: This block diagram depicts the tectonic setting of the region. See Figure 2 for the sequence of events that occur during a Cascadia Subduction Zone megathrust earthquake and tsunami.

A

Figure 2: The North American Plate rides over the descending Juan de Fuca Plate at a rate of approximately 1.5 inches per year.

B

Because the two plates are stuck in place at the "locked zone,"strain builds up over time and the North American Plate bulges up.

C

Eventually the locked zone ruptures and causes a great earthquake. The sudden slip of the two plates displaces Pacific Ocean water upward and creates a tsunami.

D

Displaced and uplifted Pacific Ocean water rushes in all directions.

E

Along the Oregon coast, tsunami waves run up onto the land for several hours.

Tsunami Wave Height through Time for Simulated Gauge Stations

124?14'0"W

Maximum Wave Elevation Profile A-A': Barview

Maximum Wave Elevation Profile B-B': City of Coos Bay

Figure 6: These profiles depict the expected maximum tsunami wave elevation for the five "tsunami t-shirts scenarios"along line A-A' in Barview and B-B' in downtown Coos Bay. The tsunami scenarios are modeled to occur at high tide and to account for local subsidence of the ground surface.

Tsunami Wave Height over Time for Simulated Gauge Stations

Figure 5: Top three charts depict the tsunami waves as they arrive at the selected reference points (simulated gauge stations). It shows the change in wave heights for all five tsunami scenarios over an 6-hour period. The model predicts the first tsunami wave will arrive at the entrance to Coos Bay in approximately 20 minutes. The starting water elevation (0.0 hour) takes into account the local land subsidence or uplift caused by the earthquake. Wave heights vary through time, and the first wave will not necessarily be the largest as waves interfere and reflect off local topography and bathymetry. Bottom chart depicts the change in wave height for the XXL tsunami scenario only. Modeled wave heights, arrival times, and wave durations can help emergency response personnel plan for a tsunami. (Chart revised 07/15/2012.)

124?12'0"W

Legend

Earthquake Size

Average Slip Maximum Slip

Time to

Earthquake

Range (ft) Range (ft)

Accumulate Slip (years) Magnitude

XXL 59 to 72

118 to 144

1,200

~9.1

XL

56 to 72

115 to 144

1,050 to 1,200

~9.1

L

36 to 49

72 to 98

650 to 800

~9.0

M

23 to 30

46 to 62

425 to 525

~8.9

SM 13 to 16 XXL Wet/Dry Zone

30 to 36

275 to 300

~8.7

Urban Growth Boundary

Building Footprint

6

Simulated Gauge Station

Cross Section Profile Location

Senate Bill 379 Line

Elevation Contour (25 ft intervals up to 200 ft)

Fire Station

Police Station

School

Hospital

101

U.S. Highway

241

State Highway

Improved Road

Data References

Source data: This map is based on hydrodynamic tsunami modeling by Joseph Zhang, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon. Model data input were created by John T. English and George R. Priest, Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI), Portland, Oregon. Bathymetry data are from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Technical Memorandum NESDIS NGDC-21 Digital Elevation Model of Port Orford, Oregon (2009). Hydrology data, contours, critical facilities, and building footprints were created by DOGAMI from 2009 to 2011. Senate Bill 379 line data were redigitized by Rachel R. Lyles Smith and Sean G. Pickner, DOGAMI, in 2011 (GIS file set, in press, 2012). Urban growth boundaries (2010) were provided by the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). Transportation data (2008) were provided by Coos County. Lidar data are from DOGAMI Lidar Data Quadrangles LDQ-2009-43124-C3-Charleston, LDQ-2009-43124-C2CoosBay, LDQ-2009-43124-D2-NorthBend, and LDQ-2009-43124-D3-Empire. Coordinate System: Oregon Statewide Lambert Conformal Conic, Unit: International Feet, Datum: North American Datum 1983 HARN. Graticule shown with geographic coordinates (latitude/longitude).

References: 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), 2008, The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1437 and California Geological Survey Special Report 203 []. Priest, G. R., 1995, Explanation of mapping methods and use of the tsunami hazard maps of the Oregon coast, Oregon Department of Geology and Minerals Industries Open-File Report O-95-67, 95 p. Priest, G.R., Goldfinger, C., Wang, K., Witter, R.C., Zhang, Y., and Baptista, A.M., 2009, Tsunami hazard assessment of the northern Oregon coast: a multi-deterministic approach tested at Cannon Beach, Clatsop County, Oregon: Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries Special Paper 41, 87 p. Witter, R.C., Zhang, Y., Wang, K., Priest, G.R., Goldfinger, C., Stimely, L.L., English, J.T., and Ferro, P.A., 2011, Simulating tsunami inundation at Bandon, Coos County, Oregon, using hypothetical Cascadia and Alaska earthquake scenarios: Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries Special Paper 43, 57 p.

Software: Esri ArcGIS? 10.0 Funding: This map was funded under award #NA09NW54670014 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

Coos Douglas

Tsunami Inundation Map Index

01 02 03 04

06 05

07 08 09

10 11

12 13 14

15 16

17

OREGON

Curry Coos

Coos-01 Lakeside West Coos-02 Lakeside East Coos-03 Saunders Lake Coos-04 Haynes Inlet Coos-05 Coos Bay - North Bend Coos-06 Coos River North Coos-07 Coos River South Coos-08 Charleston - Cape Arago Coos-09 Barview - South Slough

Coos-10 Isthmus Slough Coos-11 Catching Slough Coos-12 Bullards Beach Coos-13 Leneve Coos-14 Coquille Coos-15 Coquille River Coos-16 Bandon Coos-17 New River

0

0.125 0.25

0.5 Kilometer

0 0.075 0.15

0.3 Mile

Scale 1:12,000

Map Data Creation/Development: Tsunami Inundation Scenarios: George R. Priest, Laura L. Stimely, Daniel E. Coe, Paul A. Ferro, Sean G. Pickner, Rachel R. Lyles Smith Basemap Data: Kaleena L.B. Hughes, Sean G. Pickner, Daniel E. Coe, Mathew A. Tilman Map Production: Cartography: Kaleena L.B. Hughes, Sean G. Pickner Text : Don W.T. Lewis, Rachel R. Lyles Smith Editing: Don W.T. Lewis, Rachel R. Lyles Smith Publication: Deborah A. Schueller Map Date: 07/15/2012

For copies of this publication contact: Nature of the Northwest Information Center

800 NE Oregon Street, #28, Ste. 965 Portland, Oregon 97232 telephone (971) 673-2331

43?20'0"N

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