Supporting Online Material for



Geophysical Research LettersSupporting Information forRelating CMIP5 model biases to seasonal forecast skill in the tropical PacificHui Ding1,2*, Matthew Newman1,2, Michael A. Alexander2, and Andrew T. Wittenberg31. CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado2. NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado3. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New JerseyContents of this file Figures S1 to S6Tables S1 Figure S1. Model-analog hindcast skill of observed SST variations (1961-2015) at 6-month lead, for each individual CMIP5 model, calculated as an anomaly correlation between observations and the hindcast ensemble mean. Figure S2. As in Fig. S2, but for precipitation (1979-2015). Figure S3. As in Fig. 2, but for model-analog anomaly correlation on the ordinate. Figure S4. Multi-model monthly climatological equatorial (5°S-5°N) SST biases, calculated from the pre-industrial control simulations of the 12 models with the (a) worst and (b) best initial model-analog reconstruction error (SRMSE) for Ni?o3.4 precipitation and (c) the difference between the two groups of models. Differences in SST are hatched when they exceed 95% significance. The unit is Celsius. Figure S5. Monthly equatorial (5°S-5°N) SSTA standard deviation, calculated from (a) observations and the pre-industrial control simulations of the 12 models with the (b) worst and (c) best initial model-analog reconstruction error (SRMSE) for Ni?o3.4 precipitation. The unit is Celsius. Figure S6. As in Fig. 3, but for the 12 models selected according to model-analog forecast accuracy of Ni?o3.4 precipitation at 6-month lead. Model nameExpanded model nameLength of run (yr)ACCESS1-0Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Coupled Model500ACCESS1-3Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Coupled Model500CanESM2Second Generation Canadian EarthSystem Model995CCSM4Community Climate System Model,version 41050CMCC-CESMCMCC Carbon Earth System Model?277CMCC-CMCMCC Climate Model?330CMCC-CMSCMCC Climate Model with a resolved Stratosphere?500CNRM-CM5Centre National de RecherchesMeteorologiques Coupled GlobalClimate Model, version 5850GFDL-CM3Geophysical Fluid DynamicsLaboratory, Climate Modelversions 3.0500GFDL-ESM2GGeophysical Fluid DynamicsLaboratory Earth System Model with Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics (GOLD) component500GFDL-ESM2MGeophysical Fluid DynamicsLaboratory Earth System Model with Modular Ocean Model 4 (MOM4) component500GISS-E2-RGoddard Institute for Space StudiesModel E2, coupled with the Russellocean model550GISS-E2-R-CCGoddard Institute for Space StudiesModel E2, coupled with the Russellocean model, Interactive Carbon Cycle?251HadGEM2-CCHadley Centre Global EnvironmentModel, version 2–Carbon Cycle240HadGEM2-ESHadley Centre Global EnvironmentModel, version 2-Earth System575INMCM4Institute of Numerical MathematicsCoupled Model, version 4.0500IPSL-CM5A-LRL’Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 5, coupled with Nucleus for European Modelling ofthe Ocean (NEMO), low resolution1000IPSL-CM5A-MRL’Institut Pierre-Simon LaplaceCoupled Model, version 5, coupledwith NEMO, mid resolution300IPSL-CM5B-LRL’Institut Pierre-Simon LaplaceCoupled Model, version 5, coupledwith NEMO, new atmospheric physics low resolution300MIROC-ESMModel for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System Model630MIROC-ESM-CHEMModel for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System Model, an atmospheric chemistry coupled version255MIROC5Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 5670MPI-ESM-LRMax Planck Institute Earth SystemModel, low resolution1000MPI-ESM-MRMax Planck Institute Earth SystemModel, medium resolution1000MPI-ESM-PMax Planck Institute Earth SystemModel, low resolution, and paleo mode?1155MRI-CGCM3Meteorological Research InstituteCoupled Atmosphere–OceanGeneral Circulation Model, version 3500NorESM1-MNorwegian Earth System Model 1, medium resolution500NorESM1-MENorwegian Earth System Model 1, medium resolution with capability to be fully emission driven252Table S1. The 28 CMIP5 models whose preindustrial control simulations served as the data library for selection of model-analogs. ................
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