CNN t r t r NH P ima P ll

[Pages:17]CNN2020NHPrimaryPoll

CNN2020NewHampshirePrimaryPoll ThesefindingsarebasedonthelatestCNN2020NewHampshirePrimaryPoll,conductedbytheUniversityofNewHampshireSurvey Center.Onethousandandtwohundredsixty-six(1,266)randomlyselectedNewHampshireadultswereinterviewedinEnglishby landlineandcellulartelephonebetweenOctober21andOctober27,2019.Themarginofsamplingerrorforthesurveyis+/-2.8percent. Includedinthesamplewere461likely2020RepublicanPrimaryvoters(marginofsamplingerror+/-4.6percent)and574likely2020 DemocracPrimaryvoters(marginofsamplingerror+/-4.1percent).TrendpointspriortoJuly2019reflectresultsfromtheGranite StatePoll,conductedbytheUniversityofNewHampshireSurveyCenter. TherandomsampleusedintheCNN2020NewHampshirePrimaryPollwaspurchasedfromScien ficTelephoneSamples(STS),Rancho SantoMargarita,CA.STSscreenseachselectedtelephonenumbertoeliminatenon-workingnumbers,disconnectednumbers,and businessnumberstoimprovetheefficiencyofthesample,reducingtheamountof meinterviewersspendcallingnon-usablenumbers. Whenalandlinenumberisreached,theinterviewerrandomlyselectsamemberofthehouseholdbyaskingtospeakwiththeadult currentlylivinginthehouseholdwhohashadthemostrecentbirthday.Thisseleconprocessensuresthateveryadult(18yearsofage orolder)inthehouseholdhasanequalchanceofbeingincludedinthesurvey. Thedatahavebeenweightedtoadjustfornumbersofadultsandtelephonelineswithinhouseholds.Addionally,datawereweighted byrespondentsex,age,educaon,andregionofthestatetotargetsfromthemostrecentAmericanCommunitySurvey(ACS)conducted bytheU.S.CensusBureau.Inaddiontopoten alsamplingerror,allsurveyshaveotherpoten alsourcesofnon-samplingerror includingquesonordereffects,quesonwordingeffects,andnon-response.Duetorounding,percentagesmaynotsumto100%.The numberofrespondentsineachdemographicbelowmaynotequalthenumberreportedincross-tabulaontablesassomerespondents choosenottoanswersomequesons. FormoreinformaonaboutthemethodologyusedintheCNN2020NewHampshirePrimaryPoll,contactDr.AndrewSmithat(603) 862-2226orbyemailatandrew.smith@unh.edu.

CNN2020NewHampshirePrimaryPoll,October2019Demographics

SexofRespondent Female

Male

AgeofRespondent 18to34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

LevelofEducation Highschoolorless

Technicalschool/Somecollege

College graduate

Postgraduatework

RegionofState Central/Lakes

ConnecticutValley

ManchesterArea

MassBorder

North Country

Seacoast

RegisteredtoVote Reg.Democrat

RegisteredUndeclared/NotReg.

Reg.Republican

Party ID

Democrat

Independent

Republican

N 644 622 330 282 371 242 375 473 260 150 215 172 214 314 123 228 261 715 281 495 232 510

% 51% 49% 27% 23% 30% 20% 30% 38% 21% 12% 17% 14% 17% 25% 10% 18% 21% 57% 22% 40% 19% 41%

DefinitelyDecidedonCandidate-Democra cPrimaryVoters

HaveyoudefinitelydecidedwhomyouwillvoteforintheNewHampshireprimary,areyouleaningtowardsomeone,orhaveyou consideredsomecandidatesbutareslltryingtodecide?

Definitely Decided LeaningTowardsSomeone StillTryingToDecide

Oct2017 2% 4% 94%

N

196

Feb 2018 5% 8% 87%

Apr2018 5% 4% 91%

Aug 2018 8% 13% 78%

Feb 2019 5% 10% 85%

219

127

198

239

Democra cCandidatesFavorability

Apr2019 9% 14% 77%

237

Jul2019 16% 20% 64%

386

Oct2019 23% 21% 57%

574

NextI'dliketogetyouroverallopinionofsomeDemocratswhoarerunningforPresidentin2020.AsIreadeachname,pleasesayif you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person or if you don't know enough to say.

Bernie Sanders ElizabethWarren Joe Biden Pete Buttigieg Cory Booker KamalaHarris AmyKlobuchar Andrew Yang Beto O'Rourke Tom Steyer TulsiGabbard Julian Castro MichaelBennet Steve Bullock John Delaney MarianneWilliamson Joe Sestak

Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019 Jul2019 Oct2019

Jul2019 Oct2019

N 386 574

Favorable 67% 66% 67% 63% 57% 55% 48% 55% 44% 47% 54% 45% 24% 40% 17% 36% 28% 33% 17% 31% 30% 26% 33% 24% 11% 15% 10% 13% 10% 8% 11% 7% 5% 5%

Neutral 8% 8% 6% 8% 12% 10% 9% 7% 10% 13% 8% 11% 14% 14% 14% 13% 14% 12% 14% 12% 14% 14% 12% 12% 13% 17% 13% 15% 17% 17% 10% 14% 14% 16%

Unfavorable 18% 23% 18% 25% 25% 30% 11% 15% 16% 18% 14% 24% 13% 16% 19% 24% 24% 33% 16% 30% 15% 28% 11% 28% 13% 15% 13% 17% 13% 25% 24% 35% 10% 18%

Don'tKnow/NotSure 7% 3% 10% 5% 7% 5% 33% 23% 30% 23% 24% 20% 49% 30% 51% 27% 34% 22% 54% 27% 42% 32% 44% 37% 64% 53% 63% 55% 60% 50% 55% 43% 71% 61%

PreferredDemocrac2020Presiden alNominaonCandidate Now,I'mgoingtoreadyoualistofsomecandidateswhoarerunningfortheDemocracnominaon.IftheDemocracprimaryfor presidentwereheldtoday,whichofthefollowingwouldyousupportfortheDemocracnominaon?(Candidatesrotated)

Bernie Sanders ElizabethWarren Joe Biden Pete Buttigieg Andrew Yang AmyKlobuchar TulsiGabbard Tom Steyer KamalaHarris Cory Booker Beto O'Rourke Joe Sestak MichaelBennet John Delaney Julian Castro MarianneWilliamson Kirsten Gillibrand SethMoulton BilldeBlasio Tim Ryan Jay Inslee EricSwalwell WayneMessam SherrodBrown MichaelBloomberg John Hickenlooper Joseph Kennedy III EricHolder MartinO'Malley MarkZuckerberg Other Undecided

Oct2017 31% 13% 24%

1%

1% 6%

0%

1%

1%

2%

3% 2% 5% 11%

Feb 2018 24% 15% 35% 0% 1% 3%

0% 2%

1% 4% 15%

Apr2018 31% 12% 29%

1%

6% 4%

2%

0%

0% 4% 1% 1% 8%

Aug 2018 30% 17% 19%

3% 6%

0%

0%

0% 7% 2% 1% 2% 12%

Feb 2019 26% 7% 22% 1% 4% 1% 10% 3% 5%

0%

1%

1% 1% 0%

3% 14%

N

211

223

129

204

237

Note:SteveBullockandMarianneWilliamsonwereincludedbutdidnotreceivesupportfromanyrespondent.

Apr2019 30% 5% 18% 15% 2% 2% 1%

4% 3% 3%

0% 0%

1%

2% 0% 1% 1%

0% 12% 237

Jul2019 19% 19% 24% 10% 1% 0% 1% 0% 9% 2% 2%

1% 1%

1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

9% 383

Oct2019 21% 18% 15% 10% 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%

0% 10% 570

SecondChoiceforDemocrac2020Presiden alNominaon

Ifthatcandidatewerenotrunning,whowouldbeyoursecondchoice?

ElizabethWarren Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Pete Buttigieg AmyKlobuchar KamalaHarris No Second Choice Andrew Yang Cory Booker TulsiGabbard Tom Steyer Beto O'Rourke John Delaney Steve Bullock Julian Castro Kirsten Gillibrand MichaelBennet Tim Ryan SethMoulton John Hickenlooper MarianneWilliamson BilldeBlasio Jay Inslee EricSwalwell WayneMessam SherrodBrown MichaelBloomberg Other Undecided

N

Feb 2019 10% 18% 18% 1% 2% 14%

9% 2% 6% 1%

2%

1%

2% 1% 1% 12% 196

Apr2019 14% 20% 19% 6% 3% 8%

1% 9% 2%

3% 2%

0% 1%

1%

0%

1% 1% 0%

2% 6% 193

Jul2019 22% 20% 12% 6% 1% 15% 5% 0% 2% 4% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

5%

348

Oct2019 22% 17% 12% 10% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0%

1% 6% 510

WouldNotVoteForCandidateUnderAnyCircumstances

WhichofthecandidateswhoareeitherrunningorconsideringrunningfortheDemocracnominaonwouldyounotvoteforunder anycircumstance?

ElizabethWarren Joe Biden MarianneWilliamson Bernie Sanders TulsiGabbard Andrew Yang Beto O'Rourke Tom Steyer KamalaHarris Julian Castro Cory Booker John Delaney AmyKlobuchar MichaelBennet Pete Buttigieg Joe Sestak Steve Bullock BilldeBlasio Kirsten Gillibrand Tim Ryan Jay Inslee John Hickenlooper EricSwalwell MichaelBloomberg Other NoneAllAreOk Don'tKnow/NotSure

N

Feb 2019 13% 3%

8% 2%

2%

3% 1% 3% 0% 1%

1%

4%

0%

6% 4% 15% 35% 230

Apr2019 14% 5%

8% 2% 0% 3%

1% 1% 1% 1% 2%

2%

3%

1% 0%

2% 27% 28% 238

Jul2019 8% 14% 4% 6% 1% 1% 2% 0% 2% 1% 1%

1% 1% 1%

0% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%

0% 25% 30%

378

Oct2019 11% 11% 9% 7% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

18% 21% 567

MostLikeableDemocra cCandidate

WhichDemocraccandidatedoyouthinkismostlikeable?

Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Pete Buttigieg ElizabethWarren Cory Booker TulsiGabbard AmyKlobuchar Andrew Yang Tom Steyer KamalaHarris Beto O'Rourke MarianneWilliamson Julian Castro MichaelBennet Steve Bullock Kirsten Gillibrand Jay Inslee Tim Ryan John Delaney Someoneelse Don'tKnow/NotSure

N

Feb 2019 20% 31% 0% 3% 5% 0% 2%

9% 9%

1%

19% 235

Apr2019 22% 28% 13% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1%

2% 11% 0% 0%

0%

1% 0%

17% 240

Jul2019 20% 20% 18% 4% 4% 2% 0% 1% 0% 5% 4% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0%

19%

381

Oct2019 27% 20% 14% 10% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%

0% 11% 568

MostProgressiveDemocra cCandidate

WhichDemocraccandidatedoyouthinkismostprogressive?

Bernie Sanders ElizabethWarren Andrew Yang Joe Biden Pete Buttigieg KamalaHarris Tom Steyer TulsiGabbard Cory Booker Beto O'Rourke AmyKlobuchar Steve Bullock Julian Castro MarianneWilliamson John Delaney MichaelBennet Kirsten Gillibrand BilldeBlasio Someoneelse Don'tKnow/NotSure

N

Feb 2019 44% 10% 3% 8% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%

1%

29% 232

Apr2019 36% 10% 3% 3% 4% 2%

0% 1% 3% 1%

0% 0%

38% 238

Jul2019 40% 23% 3% 4% 4% 5%

1% 1% 0% 0%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

16%

381

Oct2019 47% 18% 6% 4% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%

0% 14%

571

CandidateWithBestChancetoWinGeneralElecon

WhichDemocraccandidatedoyouthinkhasthebestchanceofwinninginthegeneraleleconnextNovember?

Joe Biden ElizabethWarren Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg TulsiGabbard KamalaHarris AmyKlobuchar Tom Steyer Beto O'Rourke Cory Booker MichaelBennet MarianneWilliamson Steve Bullock Tim Ryan Andrew Yang John Delaney Kirsten Gillibrand SherrodBrown MichaelBloomberg Someoneelse Don'tKnow/NotSure

N

Feb 2019 33% 2% 23%

5% 1% 3% 2%

0% 1% 1% 30% 232

Apr2019 25% 2% 30% 4%

2% 0%

3% 2%

0% 0% 0%

30% 240

Jul2019 45% 9% 16% 1% 1% 7%

0% 2% 1%

0%

0% 0%

15% 380

Oct2019 36% 18% 14% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%

1% 20% 569

2020MostImportantIssuetoPrimaryVote-Democra cPrimaryVoters

TherearemanyissuesfacingthecandidatesfortheeleconforPresident.Inyouropinion,whichoneissueismostimportanttoyour voteinthepresiden alprimary?

Health Care ClimateChange/Environment Jobs/Economy Foreign Relations BeatingTrump/Republicans Other Honesty/IntegrityinGovernment Don'tKnow/NotSure Immigration Abortion NationalUnity Education Gun Policy NationalSecurity CollegeCosts/StudentDebt Taxes IncomeInequality/Minimum Wage None BeatingDemocrats NationalBudget/Debt SocialSecurity SizeofGovernment

Jul2019 20% 14% 5% 6% 9% 8% 6% 3% 13% 4% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 3% 0%

1% 1%

Oct2019 16% 16% 12% 10% 10% 9% 7% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%

N

377

557

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