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SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES

DEPARTMENT OF PSYCHOLOGY

PS3003: Judgment & Decision Making

Course Handout 2004/5

This handout contains information and advice about the objectives of the course, its structure and assessment. Please read the handout carefully and retain it for future reference.

KEY STAFF

|NAME |ROOM NO. |TELEPHONE |EMAIL ADDRESS |

|Prof. Peter Ayton |D412 |X8524 |[pic] |

|Department Office Contact |3rd floor admin |X8504 |H.Macnicol@city.ac.uk |

|Mr. Hugh Macnicol |Social Science Building | | |

AIM & OBJECTIVES

Aims

1. To provide students with knowledge and understanding of psychological research in the field of judgment and decision-making

2. To develop students’ ability to reflect critically upon the nature of different psychological theories and model of judgment and decision making, their conceptual coherence and their relation to evidence.

3. To introduce students to approaches to judgment and decision making from other areas of cognitive science

Objectives

1. Critically evaluate the way in which psychological methods and ideas can inform our understanding of human judgement and decision-making.

2. Appreciate the relationship between research issues and findings, the human context, and policy implications.

TIMETABLE

Lectures: Thursday 11.00-12.50 Location: DLG03

COURSE OUTLINE

Topic

1. Introduction to Normative, descriptive and prescriptive theory

2. Anomalies in Choice

3. Prospect Theory

4. Sunk cost Effect

5. Emotion Risk and Choice

6. “JUDGEMENT AND DECISION DAY”: All day WEDNESDAY February 23rdh.

7. Risk Perception

8. Bootstrapping of Judgment

9. Fast and frugal decisions

10. Behavioral Game Theory

Assessment

80% Exam and 20% coursework (essay). Students will sit one two-hour exam at the end of the academic year. Two questions to be answered from a choice of six (subject to confirmation).

Coursework:

One Essay of no more than 2000 words should be submitted.

Title to be discussed AND AGREED in the class.

DEADLINE: 5.00 p.m. on THURSDAY MARCH 24th2005.

Reading See my webpage for articles. The reading of primary sources, particularly journal articles is essential)

Arkes, H. and Hammond, K. (eds) (1986) Judgment and decision making. Cambridge University Press.

Ayton, P. (2005) Judgment and Decision Making. In. Braisby, N. and Gellatly, A. Cognitive Psychology. Oxford University Press.

*Baron, J. (2001) Thinking and deciding. (3rd Edition) Cambridge University Press.

Bell, D.E., Raiffa, H. and Tversky, A. (1988) Decision Making: Descriptive, normative and prescriptive interactions. Cambridge University Press.

Connolly, T. Arkes. H.R., and Hammond, K.R. (1999) (Editors) Judgment and Decision Making: An Interdisciplinary Reader (Cambridge Series on Judgment and Decision Making). Cambridge University press.

Dawes, R.M. (1988) Rational choice in an uncertain world. Cambridge University Press.

Dawes, R.M and Hastie, R. (2001) Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: An Introduction to Judgement and Decision Making. Sage Publications.

Dowie, J. and Elstein , A. (Eds) (1987) Professional Judgment. Cambridge University Press.

Gigerenzer, G. (2000) Adaptive Thinking : Rationality in the Real World (Evolution and Cognition) Oxford Univ Press.

Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. and the ABC Group (2000) Simple Heuristics that make us smart. Oxford Univ Press.

Gigerenzer, G. and Selten, R. (2001) (Eds) Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox MIT Press.

Gilovich, T. Griffin, D. and Kahneman, D. (Eds). Heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2002.

Goldstein, W.M. and Hogarth, R.M. (1997) Research on Judgment and Decision Making. CUP.

Hammond, J.S., Keeney, R.L, and Raiffa, H.L. (1998) Smart Choices : A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions. Harvard Business School Press.

Hogarth, R. (1987) Judgment and Choice: The Psychology of Decision Making. Wiley.

Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (Eds) (2000) Choices, Values and Frames. CUP.

Koehler, D.J. and Harvey, N. (Editors) Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making  

Mellers, B.A., Schwartz, A. and Cooke, A.D.J. (1998) Judgment and Decision Making. Anuual Review of Psychology, 49, 447-477.

Payne et al (1992) Behavioral Decision Research Annual Review of Psychology, (43)

Plous, S. (1993) The psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. McGraw-Hill

Thaler, R. (1992) The Winner’s Curse: Paradoxes and Anomalies of Economic Life.Princeton University Press.

Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1994) (Eds) Subjective Probability. Wiley

Yates, J.F. (1990) Judgment and decision making. Englewood N.J.:Prentice Hall.

Prospect Theory

 Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A.. Prospect Theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263-292

Tversky and Kahneman, 1981 Science, 211, 453-458; also reprinted in Wright, G. (1985) Behavioral Decision Making, Plenum.

Baron, J. (1988) Thinking and Deciding pp 330-341).

Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A. (Eds) (2000) Choices, Values and Frames. CUP.

Fast and frugal decisions

Gigerenzer, G. & Goldstein, D. G., (1996). Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality. Psychological Review, 103, 650-669.

Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. and the ABC Group (2000) Simple Heuristics that make us smart. Oxford Univ Press.

Todd , Peter M. and Gigerenzer, Gerd (1999) Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. The precis of: Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, By  Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter M. Todd and the ABC Research Group. (1999) Behavioral And Brain Sciences Full text available as: HTML



Anomalies in Choice

Hsee, C. K. (1996). The evaluability hypothesis: An explanation for preference reversals between joint and separate evaluations of alternatives. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67, 242-257.

Hsee, C. K. (1998). Less is better; When low-value options are valued more highly than high-value options. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 11, 107-121.

Shafir E (1993) Choosing versus rejecting - why some options are both better and worse than others Memory & Cognition 21 (4): 546-556.

Nonconsequentialist reasoning and choice

Baron, Jonathan (1994) Nonconsequentialist decisions. Behavioral And Brain Sciences 17 (1), 1-10. (And commentaries)

Shafir, E. and Tversky, A. (1992) Thinking through uncertainty: Nonconsequentialist reasoning and choice. Cognitive Psychology, 24, 449-474.

Sunk cost effect

Arkes, H.R. and Blumer, C. (1985) The psychology of sunk cost Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 35, 124-140

Arkes, H.R. and Ayton, P. (1999). The sunk cost and concorde effects: Are humans less rational than lower animals? Psychological Bulletin, 125, 591-600

Behavioral Game theory

Camerer (2003) Behavioral Game Theory. Princeton University Press

Colman, A. (2003) Cooperation, psychological game theory, and limitations of rationality in social interaction Behavioral And Brain Sciences 26, 139–198

Heuristics and Biases

Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1994) Subjective Probability: What should we believe? In, Wright, G and Ayton, P. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY. Chichester: Wiley.

Kahneman, D and Tversky, A. On the reality of cognitive illusions PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW, 1996, Vol.103, No.3, pp.582-591

Gilovich, T. Griffin, D. and Kahneman, D. (Eds). Heuristics and biases the psychology of intuitive judgment Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2002.

Gigerenzer, G. (1994) Why the distinction between single-event probabilities and frequencies is important for psychology (and vice-versa). In, Wright, G and Ayton, P. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY. Chichester: Wiley.

Gigerenzer, G. (1996) On narrow norms and vague heuristics: Reply PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW, 1996, Vol.103, No.3, pp.592-596.

Realism of Confidence in Judgment

Gigerenzer_G, Hoffrage_U, Kleinbolting_H (1991). Probabilistic Mental Models - A Brunswikian Theory Of Confidence PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW, 1991, Vol.98, No.4, pp.506-528

Juslin P, Winman A, Olsson H (2000) Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effect PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW, 107: (2) 384-396 APRIL issue

McClelland, A.G.R. and Bolger, F. The calibration of subjective probabilities: Theories and Models 1980-1994. In Wright, G. and Ayton, P. Subjective Probability. New York: Wiley.

Probability and Judgment.:

Fox CR, Rottenstreich Y (2003). Partition priming in judgment under uncertainty Psychological Science 14: 195-200.

Fox CR, Levav J. (2004). Partition-edit-count: Naive extensional reasoning in judgment of conditional probability.Journal Of Experimental Psychology-General 13: 626-642.

Tversky, A. and Koehler, D. (1994). Support Theory: A non-extensional representation of subjective probability. Psychological Review, 101, 547-567.

Ayton, P. (1997) How to be incoherent and seductive: Bookmakers’ odds and support theory. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 72, 99-115.

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