Choose Wisely: A Study of College Major Choice and Major ...

Choose Wisely

Dissertation

A Study of College Major Choice and Major Switching Behavior

Cameron Wright

This document was submitted as a dissertation in May 2018 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Charles A. Goldman (Chair), Trey Miller, and Dermot Forde.

PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgments........................................................................................................................... v Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... vi Chapter One: Introduction & Research Design .............................................................................. 1

Research Questions .................................................................................................................................. 3 Research Design ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Organization of the Dissertation............................................................................................................... 7

Chapter Two: Literature Review and Conceptual Models ............................................................. 9

Overview .................................................................................................................................................. 9 How do Students Choose their Major?..................................................................................................... 9 What Majors do Students Choose and what is the Impact of those Choices? ........................................ 12 Why do Students Switch Majors? .......................................................................................................... 13 How Much Major Switching Occurs and What is the Effect? ............................................................... 15 Are their Differences in Major Choice Behavior between Demographic Groups? ................................ 17 Conceptual Models ................................................................................................................................. 21 Summary ................................................................................................................................................ 24

Chapter Three: Analysis of Major Selection Behavior Using Nationally Representative Data ... 26

Background............................................................................................................................................. 26 Data and Methods................................................................................................................................... 26 Results .................................................................................................................................................... 27 Limitations.............................................................................................................................................. 33 Discussion .............................................................................................................................................. 34

Chapter Four: A Qualitative Exploration of Student Major Choice ............................................. 36

Overview ................................................................................................................................................ 36 Top Major Fields of Study Under Consideration ................................................................................... 39 Reasons for Being Undecided ................................................................................................................ 43 Initiation of Major Consideration ........................................................................................................... 46 Important Factors in Major Choice ........................................................................................................ 48 Sources of Information ........................................................................................................................... 57 External Influences on Major Decision Making Process ....................................................................... 64 Career and Life Planning Course............................................................................................................ 71 Potential Career Outcomes and Major Choice ....................................................................................... 73 Knowledge of Pay Levels Associated with Different Majors ................................................................ 74 Should All Students be Undecided? ....................................................................................................... 75 Initial Major Consideration Process ....................................................................................................... 77 Major Switch Consideration Process...................................................................................................... 82 Biggest Challenges ................................................................................................................................. 86 Additional Information or Resources ..................................................................................................... 89

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Advice for Incoming Major Deciding Freshmen ................................................................................... 91 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 92

Chapter Five: Academic Advisor Perspectives on Major Choice ................................................ 95

Overview ................................................................................................................................................ 95 Responsibilities and Student Load ......................................................................................................... 96 Assistance with Initial Major Selection.................................................................................................. 96 Information Used for Advisement .......................................................................................................... 98 What Factors Should Students Use to Weigh Different Majors ............................................................. 98 Biggest Challenges for Initial Major Decision Advisement ................................................................. 102 Primary Factors Driving Major Switches ............................................................................................. 105 Difference in Advisement between Initial Major Deciders and Major Switchers................................ 107 Effects of Switching on Time to Degree and Graduation..................................................................... 108 Serial Major Switchers ......................................................................................................................... 110 Difficulty of Major Switching .............................................................................................................. 110 Should All Students be Undecided? ..................................................................................................... 111 Additional Resources............................................................................................................................ 112 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 113

Chapter Six: University-specific Analysis of Major Selection Behavior ................................... 115

Data and Methods................................................................................................................................. 115 Descriptive Statistics ............................................................................................................................ 116 Prediction of Switches .......................................................................................................................... 120 Cost of Major Switches ........................................................................................................................ 122 Analysis of the Major Choice Quality of Deciding Students ............................................................... 126 Limitations............................................................................................................................................ 129 Discussion ............................................................................................................................................ 130 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 131

Chapter Seven: Policy Scan ........................................................................................................ 132

University Policies................................................................................................................................ 132 University Programs ............................................................................................................................. 134 Statewide Policies................................................................................................................................. 138

Chapter Eight: Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 140

Review of Findings............................................................................................................................... 140 Policy Implications ............................................................................................................................... 142 Areas for Future Research .................................................................................................................... 145 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 146

References................................................................................................................................... 147 Appendix A: Interview Protocols ............................................................................................... 151

Deciding Students Interview Protocol .................................................................................................. 151 Major Switcher/Senior Focus Group Protocol ..................................................................................... 152 Academic Advisor Interview Protocol ................................................................................................. 153

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Acknowledgments

It would not have been possible to complete this work without the support of many. First, to my committee members Dr. Charles Goldman, Dr. Trey Miller, and Dermot Forde for their support and advice along the way. You helped me shape my ideas into a workable methodology, kept me on the right track with targeted words of encouragement, and were an absolute pleasure to work with. To my benefactor Doug Smith, who graciously provided funding to me through the Susan Way-Smith Memorial Dissertation Award for several years. I hope that this is work that Susan would have been proud of. To my fellow fellows and researchers at Pardee RAND Graduate School and the RAND Corporation. Thank you in particular to the best office mate a man could have (at least for entertainment's sake), Dr. Jonathan Wong, and Dr. Gery Ryan, who provided methodological help on my qualitative work. To my parents, Van and Tracey, for their support during this process and fostering my lifelong curiosity. Without you, I literally wouldn't be here today. To my son Maximo and my daughter Aila, who put up with their dad working long hours without complaint. I hope that I set a good example for you to someday take your education as far as you want to. May you both choose wisely in a few years' time. Lastly, to my wife Jessica, whose level of support for this endeavor is difficult for me to put into words. One couldn't hope for a better partner in life and I couldn't have ever done this without you.

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Abstract

At many universities, more than half of students change majors at least once and a large fraction of these students change majors multiple times. The potential causes and effects of these very common behaviors are relatively understudied. This dissertation explores the college major decision-making process, both for initial and subsequent major choices, and analyzes the associations between major choice behaviors and student outcomes such as time to degree and probability of graduation. This was done via a descriptive quantitative analysis of nationally representative data along with a mixed methods case study at an Ohio public university. This case study included interviews and focus groups with major deciding students, major switchers, and academic advisors along with a descriptive quantitative analysis of data from university graduates.

The results suggest that entering college undecided has no cost in terms of a reduction of probability of graduation or little cost in terms of extending time to degree if a major is declared prior to sophomore year. Major switching is associated with extended time to degree, but the timing at which the final major decision is made drives the extent of this cost. There is some evidence that major switching may raise the probability of graduation. This may be because poor academic performance is a primary driver of major switches, a finding well supported with both qualitative and quantitative evidence.

University administrators and other policy makers can use findings from this work to help design programs and interventions that will help major decision-making students find the right major for them more quickly and avoid costly major selection behaviors. Exploratory programs with intensive advising for undeclared freshmen are a good idea and there is a good argument for extending these services to declared freshmen as well. Requiring a visit to an academic advisor prior to a major switch can help students avoid particularly costly switches. Career or field activities in a major area or academic performance in a key gatekeeper course like science or math make students decisive about a major and should be encouraged to be undertaken as early as possible.

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Chapter One: Introduction & Research Design

A student's choice of major field of study in college, the timing of this decision, and changes in this decision can have a significant impact on the probability of graduation, time of degree completion, and, ultimately, the cost of college. This dissertation seeks to improve life outcomes of college students by examining the effect of major selection behavior on these measures of student outcomes, understanding how students decide on a major and when to switch a major, and using this information to inform policy, practice of university administrators, and ultimately, future student decisions.

Bachelor-degree-granting programs are almost universally designed to take four years to complete, but this timeline is not the reality for the majority of students at many institutions. According to the National Center for Education Statistics1, only 39.8% of first-time full-time college students entering in 2009 graduated in four years or fewer. Many of these students may not take the possibility of longer time to degree into account when making the decision to attend college in the first place and are may be left saddled with unexpected debt.

There are many factors that can lead to extended times to degree. Students could take light credit loads, have unexpected poor academic performance that results in retaking courses, or not take courses that are required to graduate when they are initially offered. One potential cause of extended times to degree of particular interest to this study is major choices and major switching behavior. Switching one's major is an extremely widespread phenomenon and differing degree requirements and a lack of credit compatibility between majors may lead to extended times to degree. According to nationally representative data, 46 percent of all first-time full-time students entering four-year undergraduate degree programs in 2003 had changed their major at least once by 2009 ("Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study," 2004-2009). On the other end of the spectrum, remaining undecided on a major for too long may also be detrimental to graduation prospects and time to degree as it delays the initiation of major-specific course tracks designed to take a particular length of time.

The financial burden of tuition has long been a significant challenge, but these challenges have grown in recent times. Inflation-adjusted in-state tuition costs at four-year public institutions have grown 185% nationally between 2001 and 2016, and are projected to continue to rise over the coming years (Ma et al., 2016). The average time to degree completion has also

1 U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2002 through Spring 2013 and Winter 2013-14 through Winter 2015-16, Graduation Rates component; current as of April 1, 2018

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been rising steadily since the 1970s (Bound, Lovenheim and Turner, 2012). These two factors are combining to amplify the rising total cost of attendance. Students are taking longer to graduate and each additional semester costs more than it did in the past. Longer time to degree completion also leads to a greater amount of opportunity cost in forgone wages while students remain outside the labor force.

This all adds up to additional financial burden to students, often in the form of larger amounts of student loans. In total, Americans owe around $1.2 trillion in student loans and this amount has grown by over 300% between 2003 and 2015 (Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, 2015). This is not part of some greater societal trend towards indebtedness, either. In comparison, credit card debt has fallen slightly between 2003 and 2015 and student loans are the only type of debt that has increased since the peak of indebtedness was reached in 2008 (Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, 2015). There has been a 12 percent increase in the amount of students that are seeking a four year college education from 2005 to 2016, but this only accounts for a small portion of the increase in outstanding student loan debt (Ma et al., 2016).

Increasing time to degree also has ramifications beyond the personal finance of students. Public higher education funding models in 32 states (with an additional five states in the process of transitioning) have moved away from a "seat time" basis and include some sort of productivity measure, such as four-year and six-year graduation rates, and this new reality has changed the incentive structure for many universities ("Performance-based Funding for Higher Education," 2015). In Ohio, for example, the percentage of state funding directly tied to degree attainment increased from 20% to 50% in 2012, greatly increasing pressure on university administrators to graduate students and to do so in a timely manner (Recommendations of the Ohio Higher Education Funding Commission, 2012). If major choices and major switching behavior have ramifications on the performance measures used to distribute funding, universities are incentivized to understand how majors are chosen and to design policies to help students make better and more informed major decisions.

As long as students pay tuition by credit hour, quarter, or semester, there are two fundamental factors at play in the overall cost of college. The first is obviously the tuition charged by the institution. We have already seen that these costs are on an upward trend and this trend is not likely to end anytime soon. The second fundamental factor is how many credit hours, quarters, or semesters that a student attends a school prior to graduation. This dissertation aims to address the second factor by shedding light on how major choice and major switching behavior affect time to degree and graduation. Findings from this work will help colleges and universities design policies and programs that will help students make better major decisions and potentially graduate more quickly.

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