Comcast COMMUNICATION AND CLOUD OUTPERFORM
May 2, 2016
Stock Rating:
OUTPERFORM
12-18 mo. Price Target CMCSA - NASDAQ
$70.00 $60.76
3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate 52-Wk Range
Shares Outstanding Float Market Capitalization Avg. Daily Trading Volume Dividend/Div Yield
Book Value Fiscal Year Ends 2016E ROE LT Debt Preferred Common Equity Convertible Available
EPS Diluted
Q1 Q2 Q3
2014A
0.68 0.75 0.73
2015A
0.79 0.84 0.80
2016E
0.84A 0.83 0.92
Prior (E) 0.80 0.85 0.91
2017E
--
--
--
17% $64.99-$50.01
2,462.0M 2,450.0M $147,476.4M 11,479,642 $1.11/1.83%
$21.38 Dec
15.3 % $48,833.0M $1,236.0M
$52,642M No
Q4 Year Mult.
0.77 2.93 20.7x
0.81 3.25 18.7x
0.94 3.53 17.2x
0.97
-- NM
-- 3.90 15.6x
EQUITY RESEARCH
QUARTERLY UPDATE
Comcast
COMMUNICATION AND CLOUD
1Q16 Follow-Up: Strong Subscriber Growth, Expect Better Advertising Revenue
SUMMARY
Comcast reported a strong 1Q16, as results reflected solid fundamentals in both Cable and NBCU. Lower churn is the primary driver of performance from better services/care. Management noted that churn in both HSD and video has declined for 26 consecutive months. We expect these trends to continue as CMCSA increases X1 penetration to 50% by YE16 and increases broadband speeds again. This is taking some increasing spending to accomplish, though. We believe Comcast can benefit from several near-term tailwinds--increased X1 penetration, DOCSIS 3.1, the Rio Olympics, and political ad spending. This should be particularly true for advertising revenue, which is seeing strong up-front trends. CMCSA trades at a discount to CHTR using consensus estimates.
KEY POINTS
X1 Video Platform Driving Lower Churn. Video results reflected the best 1Q adds in nine years, primarily driven by Increasing X1 penetration (~35% penetration). Increased VOD and DVR usage among X1 subscribers, a 32% y/y increase in Mobile TV use, and increased customer service initiatives contributed to a 269,000 increase in customer relationships during Q1.
Cable Margins Dip. Cable OCF margins of 40.1% fell 69bps y/y on elevated customer service spending (+8% y/y), higher programming costs, and increased labor costs for the X1 rollout. Programming costs grew 9.4% on renewals, retrans, and sports costs. Management expects full-year cable margins to be flat to down 50bps, suggesting slight margin improvement from Q1 levels.
DreamWorks Acquisition. We believe the DreamWorks acquisition represents a good strategic fit for NBCU. The deal widens the IP and IP pipeline for the theme parks and consumer products, and expands Universal Studios' current stable of eight global film franchises. Additionally, the acquisition helps CMCSA diversify away from the more mature US media/television industry.
Strong Momentum Heading into Up-fronts. Cable net ad revenues increased 4% while broadcast advertising climbed 9.6% (excl. Super Bowl). Given the healthy advertising market, NBCU is well positioned heading into the up-fronts, Olympics and political spending. For the first time, the company is unifying its broadcast, NBC, Telemundo, digital and cable properties, offering a unique opportunity to advertisers.
Bottom Line. Our 2016 EPS estimate remains unchanged, with stronger NBCU results offset by an increase in below-the-line items (Hulu losses, minority interest). Our initial 2017 estimate is $3.90. We believe its FCF yield of 5% remains attractive, and CMCSA is 1-2x cheaper vs/ peer cable providers. We see additional upside from aggressive capital returns. Reiterate Outperform.
Stock Price Performance
Company Description After its merger with AT&T Broadband, Comcast emerged as the leading multichannel video and broadband provider in the US. Comcast bought NBC in early 2011.
Timothy Horan, CFA 212-667-8137
Tim.Horan@
Brajesh Mishra 212 667-7625
Brajesh.Mishra@
For analyst certification and important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix. Oppenheimer & Co Inc. 85 Broad Street, New York, NY 10004 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-8229
Comcast
CMCSA (OUTPERFORM) - $70.00
5-YEAR PRICE PERFORMANCE
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10 2012
2013
Source: Bloomberg
2014
2015
CMCSA 2016
INVESTMENT THESIS
Comcast is the largest cable provider in the US and has expanded into programming and entertainment since the acquisition of NBC Universal in 2013. The overall video market is highly correlated with housing starts, which appear to have bottomed, and we also believe that the company holds a significant competitive advantage vs. most wireline providers in terms of its network quality and broadband speeds. We believe Comcast's ability to generate consistently high cash flow from its cable business gives the company added flexibility to adapt to industry trends despite its large size.
BASE CASE ASSUMPTION
Comcast continues to grow cable revenue in the mid-single digits driven by HSD growth
Within NBCU, theme parks and filmed entertainment segments continue to outperform, while broadcast and cable networks remain sluggish
EPS growth in the low double-digit range
CATALYSTS
Roll-out of X1 video platform should improve customer "stickiness" (i.e., loyalty) and combat video subscriber losses
Comcast enters the wireless market and offers quad-play products 2016 Olympics and Presidential election to drive strong advertising
growth
UPSIDE SCENARIO
Comcast closes the monetization gap in broadcast and cable networks vs. competitors
Video OTT (over the top) migration progresses more slowly than expected, leading to negligible video subscriber losses
Comcast continues to take share in the SMB and consumer space
DOWNSIDE SCENARIO
New OTT video entrants accelerate video subscriber losses to 2% YoY
Economic downturn pressures total customer ARPU of $140 Advertisers continue to shift spending away from linear television Aggressive entry into wireless
PRICE TARGET CALCULATION
At our 12- to 18-month price target of $70, the stock would trade at a premium, but in our view reasonable, FCF multiple of about 23x 2016E FCF/share and at a P/E multiple of 19.9x 2016E EPS. Cable stocks tend to trade on FCF, and in recent history have traded in the 20x area. However, given the company's content assets and high-quality network/services, we believe that our estimates are appropriate. In addition, the company has been trading above its historical multiple since the acquisition of NBC Universal, benefiting from a blended cable/content valuation.
KEY RISKS
Economy, technology and consumer spending habits. The average consumer is spending $150 per month with Comcast, which is likely not sustainable in an economic downturn. The company faces the threat of additional competition in the form of "over-the-top" (OTT) technology, wireless broadband, and in 20% of its revenues from advertising to digital. We also see a potential acquisition of a wireless company as creating potential short-term pressure, as it would reduce near-term returns to shareholders, as can regulatory oversight.
Timothy Horan, CFA: 212-667-8137 2
CMCSA (OUTPERFORM) - $70.00
Comcast
Key Developments to Monitor
Inroads into the Enterprise Market. The company registered impressive business services revenue growth of 17.5% in Q1. Small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) have accounted for 60% of the revenue growth thus far, and Comcast believes that medium-sized and large enterprises still provide a meaningful runway for incremental growth.
Content Cost Inflation. Continued increases in the cost of sports programming could adversely impact cable and content margins. Comcast continued to guide to a 10% increase in programming costs in 2016 (attributing the rise to higher sports programming costs, contract renewals, and increases in retransmission fees).
Spectrum Auction. We believe Comcast will be a buyer up to a certain price. It is our view that the company is taking steps to eventually launch a wi-fi first mobile product--the company has 13.3M wi-fi hotspots as of YE15 and has reported that the average subscriber connects to a wi-fi hotspot five times per day with each session averaging over 25 minutes. The spectrum auction provides the company the option to acquire a strategic asset (if it can be had at a reasonable price).
Cash Deployment and Leverage. Management maintained its target of completing $5B in buybacks for 2016. During the quarter, the company repurchased 22 million of its common shares for $1.2 billion. Leverage currently stands at 2x debt/EBITDA, in-line with management's stated target.
Capital Spending. Consolidated capital expenditures increased 9.2%, to $1.9 billion during the first quarter. Cable capital expenditures increased 9%, to $1.6 billion for the quarter (12.9% of Cable revenue versus 12.6% in 1Q15). The increase reflects a higher level of infrastructure investment to increase network capacity, increased investment in line extensions, and higher spending on customer premise equipment related to the deployment of the X1 platform and wireless gateways.
NBCU's Continued Investment in China. NBCU has significantly expanded its operations in China. The company had no employees in China at the time of the NBCU acquisition, but has now established both a movie team and a consumer products team and is in talks to build a theme park in Beijing. Although the market is already a significant profit generator (Fast & Furious, for example, grossed over $400 million at the Chinese box office), we believe China still represents a large incremental growth opportunity for the company. NBCU has a number of big movies slated for release in China in 2017.
Customer Service Spending. The reduction in churn was tied to the 8% y/y increase in customer spending. We believe these investments are aimed at migrating customer service online and reducing call center volumes and will be accretive to margins in the long term. The company has also improved the on-boarding experience as customer churn is highest during the first ninety days of customer engagement. During the quarter the company received ~11M incoming calls, the lowest call-in rate "in years" according to the company.
Cord-cutting and Cord-shaving. Management maintained that cord-cutting and cord-shaving rates remained stable during the quarter, impacting ~2% of the subscriber base. Management pointed to the strength of the scatter advertising market as evidence of the resiliency and continued importance of cable channels.
Rio Olympics. The company announced that it had surpassed $1 billion in national advertising sales for the Rio Olympics, achieving this milestone earlier than it did for the London Olympics.
Exhibit 1. Selected Performance Data
Comcast Selected Performance Data
Recurring EPS Revenue Growth (%) EBITDA Margin (%) RGU Net Adds (000's) Basic Subs Net Adds (000's) Broadband Net Adds (000's) Telephony Net Adds (000's)
1Q14 $0.68 13.7% 31.8%
549 24
383 142
2Q14 $0.75 3.5% 34.5%
196 (144) 203 137
Source: Company reports; Factset; Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. estimates.
3Q14 $0.73 4.0% 34.0%
302 (81) 315 68
4Q14 $0.77 4.8% 33.1%
504 6
375 123
1Q15 $0.79 2.6% 33.4%
476 (8)
407 77
2Q15 $0.84 11.3% 33.4%
160 (69) 180 49
3Q15 $0.80 11.2% 33.1%
289 (48) 320 17
4Q15 $0.81 8.5% 32.6%
688 89
460 139
1Q16 $0.84 5.2% 33.9%
593 53
438 102
YoY Change
5.6%
1.6% 24.6%
NA 7.6% 32.5%
Actual vs. 1Q16E Estimates
$0.80 4.6% 4.8% 33.5% 1.2% 401 47.8%
(10) NA 380 15.3%
31 226.4%
Consensus $0.79 4.4% 33.5% 444 16 385 43
3
Comcast
CMCSA (OUTPERFORM) - $70.00
Exhibit 2. Comcast Consolidated Quarterly Model ($ in millions, except per share)
Last Updated: 4/27/2016 Consolidated Model
Operating Revenue Cable Content Corporate & Other
Total Consolidated Revenue
2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015 1Q16 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E
44,140 25,428
(793) 68,775
11,430 6,604 (181)
17,853
11,729 7,230 (216)
18,743
11,740 7,151 (222)
18,669
11,980 7,477 (212)
19,245
46,879 28,462
(831) 74,510
12,204 6,861 (275)
18,790
12,430 7,213 (224)
19,419
12,530 8,104 (242)
20,391
12,786 8,086 (227)
20,645
Operating Expenses % of revenue
45,852 11,897 12,477 12,485 12,973 49,832 12,423 12,988 13,623 13,743 66.7% 66.6% 66.6% 66.9% 67.4% 66.9% 66.1% 66.9% 66.8% 66.6%
EBITDA % of revenue
22,923 5,956 6,266 6,184 6,272 24,678 6,367 6,431 6,769 6,901 33.3% 33.4% 33.4% 33.1% 32.6% 33.1% 33.9% 33.1% 33.2% 33.4%
Depreciation & amortization
8,019 2,066 2,161 2,182 2,270 8,679 2,278 2,306 2,358 2,417
Operating income % of revenue
14,904 3,890 4,105 4,002 4,002 15,999 4,089 4,125 4,411 4,484 21.7% 21.8% 21.9% 21.4% 20.8% 21.5% 21.8% 21.2% 21.6% 21.7%
Other (income) expense, net Interest expense & other costs
(224) (134)
(96)
78
110
(42) (149)
25
25
25
2,617
656
713
659
674 2,702
703
702
703
702
Pretax income Provision for income taxes
Tax rate Minority Interest Net income, continuing ops. Gain on Asset Sales/Other Charges Loss from discontinued ops (net) Net income to common
% of revenue
12,511 4,597 36.7% (212) 7,702 7,702 11.2%
3,368 1,261 37.4%
(82) 2,025
2,025 11.3%
3,488 1,313 37.6%
(38) 2,137
(8) -
2,129 11.4%
3,265 1,223 37.5%
(45) 1,997
1,997 10.7%
3,218 1,162 37.0%
(85) 1,971
1,971 10.2%
13,339 4,959 37.2% (250) 8,130 8,130 10.9%
3,535 1,311 37.0%
(90) 2,134
2,134 11.4%
3,398 1,274 37.5%
(90) 2,034
2,034 10.5%
3,682 1,362 37.0%
(100) 2,220
2,220 10.9%
3,757 1,390 37.0%
(100) 2,267
2,267 11.0%
Earnings per share: Reported EPS Non-recurring gain (loss) Merger-related accretion/(decretion) Operating EPS Average diluted shares Dividends per share
$ 3.20 $ 0.27 $ 0.00 $ 2.93 2,615 $ 0.86
$ 0.81 $ 0.01 $ 0.00 $ 0.79 2,556 $ 0.22
$ 0.84 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.84 2,531 $ 0.25
$ 0.80 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.80 2,502 $ 0.25
$ 0.79 $ 0.00 $ 0.02 $ 0.81 2,481 $ 0.25
$ 3.24 $ 0.01 $ 0.02 $ 3.25 2,516 $ 0.97
$ 0.87 ($ 0.03) $ 0.00 $ 0.84
2,462 $ 0.28
$ 0.83 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.83 2,442 $ 0.28
$ 0.92 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.92 2,422 $ 0.28
$ 0.94 $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.94 2,401 $ 0.28
Free cash flows analysis:
Net income, continuing ops.
7,702 2,025 2,137 1,997
plus: D&A
8,019 2,066 2,161 2,182
minus: Cable Capex
6,154 1,445 1,676 1,851
as % of cable revenue
13.9% 12.6% 14.3% 15.8%
minus: Content, Corp. & Other Capex 1,266
281
295
314
minus: Cash Paid for Capitalized Softw1a,1re22and Oth2e7r3Intangib3le27Assets 316
Total Capex
8,542 1,999 2,298 2,481
as % of total revenue
12.4% 11.2% 12.3% 13.3%
Share Buybacks
4,250 2,000 1,600 2,200
Dividends
2,255
572
628
623
Cash Taxes
264 2,025 1,116
Cash Interest Expense
691
550
673
plus: Non-Cash Tax & Interest Expense
962
(549)
93
Free cash flows
674
(480) (228) (1,125)
Free cash flow prior to dist.
7,179 2,092 2,000 1,698
1,971 2,270 2,062 17.2%
584 454 3,100 16.1% 980 614 790 569 477 (453) 1,141
8,130 8,679 7,034 15.0% 1,474 1,370 9,878 13.3% 6,780 2,437
(2,286) 6,931
2,134 2,278 1,687 13.8%
309 378 2,374 12.6% 1,200 677
161 2,038
2,034 2,306 1,859 15.0%
304 330 2,493 12.8% 1,250 679
(82) 1,846
2,220 2,358 1,913 15.3%
323 319 2,555 12.5% 1,250 675
97 2,023
2,267 2,417 2,113 16.5%
602 459 3,173 15.4% 1,300 665
(454) 1,511
Balance sheets data: Cash Current portion of debt Long-term debt Net debt Effective annual interest expense Net PP&E Implied useful life (PP&E) Total assets Shareowners equity Net debt / Total capitalization Net debt/ EBITDA
3,910 4,217 44,017 44,324 5.8% 30,953
3.8 159,339
53,068 45.5%
1.9x
3,937 4,180 42,953 43,196 6.0% 31,127
3.8 158,757
52,511 45.1%
1.8x
3,486 3,887 44,636 45,037 6.5% 31,572
3.6 159,674
52,729 46.1%
1.8x
1,893 3,152 44,605 45,864 5.8% 32,170
3.7 158,958
51,965 46.9%
1.9x
2,295 3,627 48,994 50,326 5.6% 33,665
3.6 166,574
53,978 48.2%
2.0x
2,295 3,627 48,994 50,326 5.7% 33,665
3.7 166,574
53,978 48.2%
2.0x
2,295 3,627 48,833 50,165 5.6% 34,122
3.7 170,599
52,642 48.8%
2.0x
2,295 3,627 48,915 50,247 5.6% 34,309
3.7 170,152
54,676 47.9%
2.0x
2,295 3,627 48,818 50,150 5.6% 34,506
3.6 169,707
56,896 46.8%
1.9x
2,295 3,627 49,272 50,604 5.6% 35,262
3.6 169,402
59,162 46.1%
1.8x
Return on equity - Dupont method
Profit margin (NI / Rev)
11.2%
Asset utilization (Rev / Avg. assets) 43.2%
Leverage (Avg. assets / Avg. equity) 305.5%
Return on equity (annualized)
14.8%
Return on invested capital
9.7%
11.3% 11.3% 303.9% 15.6% 10.1%
11.4% 11.8% 298.2% 16.0% 10.6%
10.7% 11.7% 301.3% 15.1% 10.2%
10.2% 11.8% 304.5% 14.7% 10.0%
10.9% 45.7% 304.5% 15.2% 10.0%
11.4% 11.4% 313.2% 16.2% 10.0%
10.5% 11.8% 307.1% 15.1%
9.9%
10.9% 12.4% 301.9% 16.3% 10.5%
11.0% 12.3% 297.0% 16.0% 10.4%
Source: Company Reports & Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Estimates.
1Q15
2Q15
Year -Over- Year Change
3Q15 4Q15
2015 1Q16 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E
6.3% 6.3% (4.0%) 20.2%
6.3% 5.9% 20.8% 13.0%
6.2% 11.9%
2.6% 11.3% 11.2% 8.5%
8.3%
0.2% 13.0% 12.6% 9.4%
8.7%
6.8% 3.9%
5.2%
4.4%
6.0% 6.7% (0.2%) 13.3%
6.7% 8.1%
3.6% 9.2% 7.3%
4.1% 9.1% 5.9%
7.5% 8.0%
8.4% 6.7%
7.7%
6.9%
2.6% 9.5% 10.0%
4.9% 9.0%
8.1% 11.4% 8.6% 7.9% 6.9% 5.7%
8.2% 10.3%
7.3%
5.1%
6.7% 8.1% 6.5% 0.5% 10.2% 12.0%
2.2% 10.0% 12.6% 7.0%
(0.6%) 1.5% 5.7% 1.4%
3.2% 6.6%
7.2% 5.0%
(1.5%) 6.7% 4.2% (2.6%) 12.8% 16.8%
12.2% 8.0%
4.2% (0.9%) 5.6%
5.4% (4.5%) 11.2% 15.0%
16.1% (3.4%) 16.5%
12.5% (3.7%) 11.5%
8.9% 6.1% (4.4%) (4.2%) 11.9% 10.5%
10.8% (3.8%) 12.5%
5.6% (3.7%) 22.9%
(1.4%) 14.8% 15.9% (3.5%) (3.2%) (3.2%) 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
26.2% 12.3% 12.6% 10.1%
(7.3%) 25.8% 20.1%
(3.3%) 25.8% 11.7%
2.6% 22.5% 12.4%
65.9% 17.3% 18.7%
14.3%
16.4% 22.1% 15.6%
16.7%
10.0% 38.5% 18.8%
10.9%
3.0% 1.0% 8.5%
3.3%
3.0% 1.0% 3.0%
2.5%
3.0% 1.0% 2.3%
12.6% 7.4%
7.0% 5.9%
8.1% 18.4%
8.1% 8.4% 8.4%
(127.9%) (565.3%) (434.8%) NM (439.2%)
NM
NM
NM
NM
(29.8%) 44.5% (4.9%) (22.2%) (3.5%) (2.6%) (7.7%) 19.1% 32.4%
4
CMCSA (OUTPERFORM) - $70.00
Comcast
Exhibit 3. Comcast Segment Quarterly Model ($ in millions, except per share)
Segment Model Cable Total Video High-Speed Data Voice Advertising Other Total Revenue
2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015 1Q16 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E
20,783 11,321
3,671 2,393 5,972 44,140
5,331 3,044
906 504 1,645 11,430
5,431 3,101
903 582 1,712 11,729
5,348 3,129
900 593 1,770 11,740
5,416 3,197
899 639 1,829 11,980
21,526 12,471
3,608 2,318 6,956 46,879
5,538 3,275
896 559 1,936 12,204
5,603 3,341
890 629 1,968 12,430
5,574 3,382
887 658 2,029 12,530
5,645 3,433
882 728 2,097 12,786
Operating Expenses Cost of Services
% of revenue
SG&A & Other % of revenue
Operating Expenses
EBITDA % of revenue
Depreciation and Amortization % of revenue
Operating Income
18,867 42.7%
7,161 16.2%
26,028 18,112 41.0%
6,422 14.5% 11,690
4,977 43.5%
1,779 15.6%
6,756 4,674 40.9% 1,675 14.7% 2,999
5,042 43.0%
1,889 16.1%
6,931 4,798 40.9% 1,726 14.7% 3,072
5,052 43.0%
1,940 16.5%
6,992 4,748 40.4% 1,777 15.1% 2,971
5,108 42.6%
1,972 16.5%
7,080 4,900 40.9% 1,850 15.4% 3,050
20,179 43.0%
7,580 16.2%
27,759 19,120 40.8%
7,028 15.0% 12,092
5,415 44.4%
1,900 15.6%
7,315 4,889 40.1% 1,843 15.1% 3,046
5,448 43.8%
1,939 15.6%
7,387 5,043 40.6% 1,889 15.2% 3,153
5,477 43.7%
1,942 15.5%
7,419 5,111 40.8% 1,879 15.0% 3,232
5,550 43.4%
1,982 15.5%
7,532 5,254 41.1% 1,918 15.0% 3,336
Subscriber Summary (000) Homes Passed Video Subscribers Subscribers added (lost) Penetration of Homes Passed Avg. Monthly Cable Rev. per Sub Advanced Services Customers
54,673 54,904 55,205 55,455 55,691
22,383 22,375 22,306 22,258 22,347
(195)
(8)
(69)
(48)
89
40.9% 40.8% 40.4% 40.1% 40.1%
$163.63 $170.25 $175.00 $175.63 $179.05
55,691 55,910 55,757 56,010 56,248
22,347 22,400 22,350 22,310 22,395
(36)
53
(50)
(40)
85
40.1% 40.1% 40.1% 39.8% 39.8%
$174.67 $181.82 $185.17 $187.04 $190.67
(81.30) (68.86)
High Speed Data Subs % of basic HSD net-adds (000) HSD net-adds run rate per day
21,962 98.1% 1,276 5,104
22,369 100.0%
407 6,512
22,548 101.1%
180 2,880
22,868 102.7%
320 5,120
23,328 104.4%
460 7,360
23,328 104.4%
1,367 5,468
23,766 106.1%
438 7,008
23,916 107.0%
150 2,400
24,216 108.5%
300 4,800
24,416 109.0%
200 3,200
Telephony Subscribers % of basic Telephony net-adds (000) Phone net-adds run rate per day
11,193 50.0%
470 1,880
11,270 50.4%
77 1,232
11,319 50.7%
49 784
11,336 50.9%
17 272
11,475 51.3%
139 2,224
11,475 51.3%
282 1,128
11,577 51.7%
102 1,632
11,608 51.9%
31 500
11,640 52.2%
31 500
11,671 52.1%
31 500
RGU Net Adds
1,551
476
160
289
688 1,613
593
131
291
316
Monthly ARPUs Total Video High-Speed Data Voice Total Cable
$77.05 $44.27 $27.88 $163.65
$79.40 $45.78 $26.89 $170.25
$81.03 $46.03 $26.65 $175.00
$80.00 $45.93 $26.48 $175.63
5.06% $80.95 $46.14 $26.27 $179.05
$80.35 $45.97 $26.57 $174.98
$82.51 $46.36 $25.91 $181.82
$83.46 $46.72 $25.58 $185.17
$83.20 $46.85 $25.42 $187.04
$84.19 $47.06 $25.22 $190.67
NBC Universal
Cable Networks Cable Network Revenue
9,563
Operating Expenses
5,974
Cable Networks EBITDA % of Cable Network Revenue
3,589 37.5%
Broadcast Television Broadcast Television Revenue
8,542
Operating Expenses
7,808
Broadcast Television EBITDA
734
% of Broadcast Television Revenue 8.6%
Filmed Entertainment Filmed Entertainment Revenue
5,008
Operating Expenses
4,297
Filmed Entertainment EBITDA
711
% of Filmed Entertainment Revenue14.2%
2,359 1,461
898 38.1%
2,248 2,066
182 8.1%
1,446 1,153
293 20.3%
2,450 1,578
872 35.6%
1,813 1,582
231 12.7%
2,266 1,844
422 18.6%
2,412 1,577
835 34.6%
1,971 1,821
150 7.6%
1,946 1,570
376 19.3%
2,407 1,513
894 37.1%
2,498 2,281
217 8.7%
1,629 1,486
143 8.8%
9,628 6,129 3,499 36.3%
8,530 7,750
780 9.1%
7,287 6,053 1,234 16.9%
2,453 1,497
956 39.0%
2,553 1,634
919 36.0%
2,084 1,800
284 13.6%
2,037 1,780
257 12.6%
1,383
1,216
167 12.1%
1,563
1,422
141 9.0%
2,561 1,665
896 35.0%
2,756 2,425
331 12.0%
1,503 1,323
180 12.0%
2,574 1,609
965 37.5%
2,739 2,397
342 12.5%
1,546 1,453
93 6.0%
Theme Parks Theme Parks Revenue Operating Expense
3,708 2,161
935 1,028 1,239 1,189 4,391 1,026 1,131 1,363 1,308
572
583
636
648 2,439
651
646
695
706
Theme Park EBITDA % of Theme Park Revenue
Total Content Revenue Sequential growth
Operating Expenses EBITDA
% of revenue Depreciation and Amortization
% of revenue Operating Income
1,168 44.5%
25,428
263 40.4%
363 6,604
354 45.8%
7,230
458 51.1%
7,151
452 1,527 44.4% 45.7%
7,477 28,462
375
485
36.5% 42.9%
6,861 7,213
668 49.0%
8,104
602 46.0%
8,086
19,840
5,588 22.0%
1,495 5.9%
4,093
5,110
1,494 22.6%
364 5.5%
1,130
5,518
1,712 23.7%
405 5.6%
1,307
5,494
1,657 23.2%
380 5.3%
1,277
5,926
1,551 20.7%
390 5.2%
1,161
22,048
6,414 22.5%
1,539 5.4%
4,875
5,239
1,622 23.6%
414 6.0%
1,208
5,572
1,642 22.8%
397 5.5%
1,245
6,205
1,899 23.4%
454 5.6%
1,445
6,247
1,839 22.7%
469 5.8%
1,370
Source: Company Reports & Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Estimates.
1Q15
2Q15
Year -Over- Year Change
3Q15 4Q15
2015 1Q16 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E
3.0% 10.7% (1.5%) (0.6%) 17.3%
6.3%
3.7% 10.0% (2.1%) (0.9%) 17.1%
6.3%
3.3% 10.2% (1.4%) (0.5%) 17.0%
6.3%
4.4% 9.8% (1.9%) (9.1%) 14.7% 5.9%
3.6% 10.2% (1.7%) (3.1%) 16.5%
6.2%
3.9% 7.6% (1.1%) 10.9% 17.7% 6.8%
3.2% 7.7% (1.5%) 8.0% 14.9% 6.0%
4.2% 8.1% (1.5%) 11.0% 14.6% 6.7%
4.2% 7.4% (1.9%) 14.0% 14.7% 6.7%
5.8%
7.9%
7.1% 7.1%
7.0%
8.8%
8.1% 8.4% 8.7%
7.7%
5.4%
4.4% 6.1%
5.9%
6.8%
2.6% 0.1% 0.5%
6.3% 6.2%
5.7%
6.5%
7.2% 5.1%
6.3% 6.4%
6.8% 4.6%
7.6% 13.8% 10.6%
3.8% 2.3% 1.3%
6.7% 5.6%
8.3% 4.6%
9.4% 10.0%
3.4%
1.6%
6.6% 5.1%
6.1% 7.7%
6.4% 7.2%
9.5% 5.8% 3.7%
2.6% 8.8% 9.4%
1.7%
1.7%
1.8% 1.9%
1.9%
(1.0%) (0.7%) (0.5%) (0.2%) (0.2%)
1.8% 0.1%
1.0% 0.2%
1.0% 0.2%
1.0% 0.2%
6.2% 6.0% 5.9% 6.2% 6.3% (11.3%) 1.6% 22.7%
6.2% 7.1%
6.2%
6.1% 5.9% 4.7%
7.6% (16.7%) (6.3%) (56.5%)
3.7%
2.9%
2.4% 2.5%
2.5%
2.7%
2.6% 2.7% 1.7%
(45.8%) (64.2%) (75.0%) 13.0% (40.0%) 32.5% (36.2%) 83.8% (77.5%)
3.9% 4.2% (5.4%) 7.3%
4.5% 3.7% (5.2%) 7.2%
3.9% 4.0% (4.0%) 7.0%
4.8% 3.5% (4.2%) 6.3%
4.3% 3.8% (4.7%) 6.9%
3.9% 1.3% (3.6%) 6.8%
3.0% 1.5% (4.0%) 5.8%
4.0% 2.0% (4.0%) 6.5%
4.0% 2.0% (4.0%) 6.5%
(5.8%) (9.3%) 0.3%
(1.1%) 1.0% (4.6%)
7.0% 13.7% (3.8%)
3.4% 6.9% (2.0%)
0.7% 2.6% (2.5%)
4.0% 2.5% 6.5%
4.2% 3.6% 5.4%
6.2% 5.6% 7.4%
6.9% 6.3% 8.0%
(14.2%) (17.3%) 49.2%
(0.2%) 0.4% (3.8%)
11.4% 11.9%
5.6%
7.0% 8.4% (5.7%)
(0.1%) (7.3%) (0.7%) (12.9%) 6.3% 56.0%
12.3% 39.8% 12.5% 33.2% 11.1% 120.5%
9.6% 5.1% 57.8%
7.0% 8.5% 1.7%
92.7% 88.0% 116.4%
64.1% 51.7% 149.0%
25.8% 22.0% 85.7%
45.5% 40.9% 73.6%
(4.4%) (31.0%) (22.8%) (5.1%) 5.5% (22.9%) (15.8%) (2.2%) (43.0%) (66.7%) (52.0%) (35.1%)
38.1% 20.4%
54.7%
30.5% 13.4%
45.1%
8.3% 8.2% 6.0% 13.3%
13.9% 28.4%
18.4% 12.9%
30.7%
9.7% 13.8%
42.6%
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 37.0% 45.8% 33.1%
(4.0%) 20.2% 20.8% 13.0% 11.9%
3.9% (0.2%) 13.3% 8.1%
(8.2%) 20.4% 14.0% 19.4%
22.0% 14.2% 17.0% 8.7%
11.1% 14.8%
2.5% 8.6%
1.0% 12.9% 5.4% (4.1%) 14.6% 18.6%
(0.3%) 9.5%
2.4% 0.3%
2.9% 13.7% (2.0%) 19.4% 20.3%
19.5% 22.8% 22.2% 11.8% 19.1%
6.9% (4.7%) 13.2% 18.0%
5
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