Global Macro ISSUE 77 Research TOP MIND BUYBACK REALITIES

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ISSUE 77 | April 11, 2019 | 4:49 PM EDT

TOPof MIND BUYBACK REALITIES

The surge in US corporate buybacks to all-time highs in 2018 has generated public

debate about the effects of buybacks on workers, companies, and the economy. We

speak with William Lazonick, prof. at the University of Massachusetts, about the

concerns driving this debate, at the core of which is the notion that buybacks come

at the expense of investment. But GS portfolio strategists see little evidence of this.

Aswath Damodaran, prof. at the NYU Stern School of Business, argues that's

because buybacks redirect--rather than reduce--investment, and trapping cash

in firms that don't have a good use for it instead would harm their competitiveness.

More broadly, Steven Davis, prof. at The Chicago Booth School of Business, explains

that such an inefficient allocation of resources would shrink the size of the economic "pie" and likely reinforce the

unequal distribution of it. As for market impacts, we assess the size of the corporate bid (meaningful) and if it looks

to be fading (no). And we ask what would happen if it did (bad news for equity investors).

"Where did the $800 billion worth of cash used for

buybacks in the US last year go? That money didn't just disappear; shareholders typically use their returns to invest elsewhere in the market. So it's not that companies are investing less; it's that different companies are investing.

- Aswath Damodaran

The argument that not meeting "hurdle rates" justifies engaging in buybacks rather than re-investing is nonsensical and rarely made by successful CEOs who understand the need, in the face of uncertainty, to invest in future products to remain in business.

- William Lazonick

Trapping resources in larger and older businesses not only inhibits the overall size of the pie... but also tends to reinforce the unequal distribution of the pie.

- Steven Davis

WHAT'S INSIDE

INTERVIEWS WITH: Aswath Damodaran, Professor, NYU Stern School of Business

Steven Davis, Professor, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business

William Lazonick, Professor, University of Massachusetts

DEBUNKING BUYBACK MYTHS David Kostin and Cole Hunter, GS US Equity Strategy Research

WHAT IF THERE WERE NO BUYBACKS? Arjun Menon, GS US Equity Strategy Research

Q&A ON STOCK BUYBACK MECHANICS Neil Kearns, Head of Goldman Sachs' Corporate Trading Desk

EXPLAINING THE TRANSATLANTIC BUYBACK GAP Sharon Bell and Hiromi Suzuki, GS Europe and Japan Equity Strategy Research

...AND MORE

"

Allison Nathan | allison.nathan@

David Groman | david.groman@

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to research/hedge.html.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Top of Mind

Issue 77

EMl acro news and views

We provide a brief snapshot on the most important economies for the global markets

US

Latest GS proprietary datapoints/major changes in views ? No major changes in views. Datapoints/trends we're focused on

? Signs that US growth is picking up, especially given stabilization abroad and an improving impulse from financial conditions.

? The sharp rebound in non-farm payroll growth in March (+196k), which we think should quell fears of stalling jobs growth.

? Softer-than-expected core PCE inflation in January (1.79%) on a decline in financial services prices and longer-term drags from shelter and healthcare; we still expect 2%+ inflation in 2020.

Japan

Latest GS proprietary datapoints/major changes in views ? No major changes in views. Datapoints/trends we're focused on

? A less-rosy picture for Q1 GDP, given a likely decline in Q1 exports, still-sluggish retail sales, and a weak rebound in IP.

? A fall in model-implied recession risk given slightly improved business conditions, though caution remains warranted.

? Rising market expectations of a BOJ rate cut; we expect the bank to remain on hold barring a sharp yen appreciation.

? A meaningful drop in manufacturing DI in March.

Picking up

US Current Activity Indicator (CAI) by sector, % change (annual)

5.5

Manufacturing Consumer

Labor

5.0

Housing

Other

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019

*First principal component of 37 key weekly and monthly US economic indicators.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Less risky (for now)

GS model-implied recession probability for Japan, %

100

90

80

70 Consumption 60 tax rate hike

Recession Probability Three-Month Average

50

40

30

20

10

0 2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

2018

2019

Europe

Latest GS proprietary datapoints/major changes in views

? No major changes in views.

Datapoints/trends we're focused on ? Continued downside surprises in German manufacturing

data despite signs of strength elsewhere in the Euro area. ? An ongoing fiscal boost, which should lift Euro area-wide

growth by 0.4pp in 2019. ? Weaker-than-expected HICP core inflation, as market

measures of inflation expectations fall close to historical lows. White House communication on tariffs on European cars.

Emerging Markets (EM)

Latest GS proprietary datapoints/major changes in views

? We now expect the first rate cut in Turkey in 4Q2019 (vs. Q2 previously) on recent FX volatility; we also see downside risks to our below-consensus 2019 GDP growth forecast of -2.5%.

Datapoints/trends we're focused on

? Accelerating EM growth; our EM CAI rose to 3.4% in March from 3.1% in February (on a 3mma, equal-weighted basis).

? Signs of a consolidated Chinese growth recovery in coming trade/money and credit data, following on stronger-thanexpected March PMIs that likely received a seasonal boost.

Different directions

Euro area manufacturing vs. services PMI (50+ = expansion), index

65 Euro Area Manufacturing PMI

60

Euro Area Services PMI

55

50

45

40 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

2018

2019

China (and EM): giving the globe a lift

Contributions to change in global CAI (Dec. 2018-Mar. 2019), bp

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

China EMs ex China

US

Euro Area Rest of DM

19%

34%

19%

15%

12%

of world

of world

of world

of world

of world

Note: regional contributions are weighted by the respective PPP world share.

Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2

Top of Mind

Issue 77

EBl uyback realities

S&P 500 share repurchases surged 50% to an all-time high of over $800 billion in 2018, generating public debate about the use of corporate cash in Washington, DC and beyond. How US companies use cash, the motivations of executives buying back stock, and the effects of these buybacks on workers, companies, the economy, and the market are Top of Mind.

To start, William Lazonick, professor at University of Massachusetts, lays out several concerns about buybacks driving the public debate. At their core is the notion that returning cash to shareholders comes at the expense of investment. This, in turn, harms innovation as well as American workers, who, Lazonick argues, should be getting a much larger share of company profits than shareholders. He also believes that paying executives with stock distorts their incentives, motivating them to boost share prices, no matter the cost to employees, their companies' future growth, or the economy writ large--especially as the US increasingly loses out to more innovative competitors. What's the fix, in his view? Ban buybacks, stop paying executives with stock, and give employees their due--all of which will only be truly meaningful in a world in which the "maximizing shareholder value" ideology no longer prevails.

But, when looking at the numbers, GS US portfolio strategists David Kostin and Cole Hunter find many of these arguments don't hold up in reality. In particular, they emphasize that even as companies return a large amount of cash to shareholders, there is sizable reinvestment; in fact, growth investment at S&P 500 companies has accounted for a larger share of cash spending than shareholder return every year since at least 1990, with the largest share repurchasers far outpacing market averages in growth of R&D and capex spending. They also find that executives who stand to gain the most from buybacks-- those whose compensation depends directly on EPS--did not allocate a greater proportion of total cash spending to buybacks in 2018 than executives whose pay was not linked to EPS.

Aswath Damadoran, professor at New York University Stern School of Business, agrees that buybacks aren't coming at the expense of investment. Rather, he argues that large, mature companies returning cash to shareholders allows that cash to be put to more productive uses; so it's not that companies are investing less, it's that different companies--with better growth opportunities--are investing instead.

As for workers, Damodaran worries that constraining companies' ability to return cash to shareholders would lead US

companies to make bad investments, further damaging their competitiveness and creating more "walking dead companies" similar to what we see in Europe. This, he fears, could backfire on workers, as firms are ultimately forced to pay less, hire less, or reduce their workforce altogether. In the end, he believes banning buybacks would ironically most likely benefit corporate executives (who would now have the luxury of sitting on cash) and bankers (who will reap the gains if executives instead pursue acquisitions), while hurting workers. (Note: see pgs. 1617 for our take on why companies outside of the US pursue less buybacks, and whether that's set to change.)

Steven Davis, professor at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, then dives into the potential implications of banning buybacks for business formation, job creation and the broader economy. He explains that such a ban will likely lead to an inefficient allocation of resources, which will ultimately shrink the overall size of the economic "pie". And since he finds that younger and smaller businesses are an important source of jobs in the economy--particularly for workers at the lower end of the earnings distribution--he's concerned that trapping cash in older, larger companies will reinforce an unequal distribution of the pie, aka: income inequality. In his view, the best bet to increase the size of the pie and even out its distribution is to foster a favorable environment for starting and growing businesses. That would entail simplifying the tax code, reducing labor market restrictions and regulations, and revamping local and federal regulations in other areas that create a complex and costly business environment today.

But beyond these firm-level, economic and social implications of buybacks--and the prospect of banning them--what about the market impacts? Neil Kearns, head of the GS US corporate trading desk, assesses the size of the corporate bid (meaningful), what drives fluctuations in it (primarily corporate earnings, but also market swings), and if it looks to be fading (no). GS US equity strategist Arjun Menon then asks the most important question for equity investors eyeing recent developments: what would the equity market look like without this corporate bid? His (concerning) answer: lower EPS growth, multiples, and index levels, and higher market volatility.

Allison Nathan, Editor

Email: allison.nathan@ Tel: 212-357-7504 Goldman Sachs and Co. LLC

1,600 1,400 1,200

S&P 500 cash spending (last 12 months)

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

1990

1995

2000

Source: Compustat, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Investment for growth (R&D + capex + cash M&A) Return to shareholders (dividends + buybacks)

2005

2010

2015

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

3

Top of Mind

Issue 77

EDl ebunking buyback myths

David Kostin and Cole Hunter address myths coloring the debate on stock buybacks today

S&P 500 share repurchases rocketed 50% to an all-time high of $811 billion during 2018. As a result, the impact of corporate share repurchases--as well as the motivations of managers who buy back stock--have become popular topics of public debate. However, a number of misperceptions surrounding corporate cash spending priorities and the economics of share repurchases have colored the recent dialogue. We debunk these myths.

Myth #1: Buybacks dominate corporate spending at the expense of growth investment.

Reality: Growth investment (capex, R&D, and cash M&A) has accounted for a larger share of cash spending than shareholder return (buybacks and dividends) every year since at least 1990. Capital expenditures and R&D have also been remarkably stable. Indeed, for the past 30 years, corporate cash spending on capex and research and development initiatives (R&D) has consistently equaled roughly 8% of sales. During 2018, S&P 500 firms increased capex and R&D spending by 13% to $1.0 trillion, equal to 9% of annual sales (a 98th percentile reading since 1990). In 2019, we forecast capex and R&D spending will rise by 10% to $1.2 trillion and account for 38% of the $3.0 trillion of aggregate cash spent by S&P 500 companies, vs. 13% spent on cash M&A, and 49% returned to shareholders.

We find little evidence that share repurchases are crowding out growth investment among the index's largest repurchasers. Just 10 S&P 500 stocks account for nearly two-thirds of the $271 billion year/year increase in share repurchases in 2018. These 10 stocks increased spending on capex and R&D by 26% during 2018--nearly 2x the pace of growth for the aggregate index. Capex and R&D as a share of sales equaled 13% for this group of stocks last year, a full 4 pp higher than the index as a whole (see p. 15 for more).

Myth #2: Cash payouts to shareholders are exceptionally high today.

Reality: S&P 500 firms have been returning cash to shareholders for at least 140 years and current payouts are not extreme by historical standards. The S&P 500 cash return payout ratio (dividends + net buybacks / net income) has averaged 73% of earnings since 1880. Between 1880 and 1980, most distributions were in the form of dividends. However, since the early 1980s companies returned cash to shareholders via both dividends and share repurchases. In 2018, the combined payout ratio equaled 88% of earnings, ranking in the 76th historical percentile since 1880.

One reason that companies have increased buybacks relative to dividends is that buybacks offer management teams greater flexibility to increase and decrease the amount of cash returned to shareholders. Broadly speaking, buyback growth typically follows the trajectory of earnings growth. Therefore, large swings in profits mean that buyback growth also varies widely. For example, during the current economic expansion, buybacks

plunged by 12% in 2012, rose by 13% annually during the next three years, dropped by 7% in 2016, and fell by 2% in 2017, before rebounding last year. In contrast, dividend growth has been far more stable, rising steadily by an average of 7% annually during the past decade. Looking forward, we expect S&P 500 aggregate buyback spending to rise by 16% to $940 billion in 2019 and dividends to rise by 11% to $525 billion.

Myth #3: Companies used extra cash from 2017 tax reform solely for stock buybacks.

Reality: Buybacks have picked up since the passage of tax reform, but so too has growth investment. For context, one consequence of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was that earnings permanently reinvested overseas were subject to tax regardless of whether the profits were actually repatriated. Accordingly, after paying the tax, firms had an incentive to return cash to the US rather than leave earnings trapped abroad. It's true that the substantial growth in share repurchases during 2018 was highly concentrated among firms with the highest earnings trapped overseas; 7 of the 10 stocks accounting for the largest share of the year-over-year increase in S&P 500 share repurchases had significant earnings trapped overseas before the deemed repatriation.

But growth investment has also accelerated sharply since the passage of tax reform. A company must invest at the same rate as depreciation in order to maintain a consistent asset base, while capex in excess of depreciation represents investment for incremental growth. The capex-to-depreciation ratio (sometimes referred to as the "reinvestment ratio") had been persistently declining since the summer of 2014 and reached the lowest level this cycle in the summer of 2017. However, following tax reform, the S&P 500 reinvestment ratio rebounded sharply to 130% in 2018.

Myth #4: Management teams only repurchase stock in an attempt to inflate EPS and meet incentive compensation targets.

Reality: Executives whose compensation depends on EPS did not allocate a greater proportion of total cash spending to buybacks in 2018 than companies where management pay was not linked to EPS. The 247 companies in the S&P 500 with incentive compensation programs linked to earnings per share--a metric that would benefit from accretive share buybacks--actually spent a smaller share (28%) of their total cash outlays on repurchasing stock compared with the 253 firms without a performance metric linked to EPS (31%). Moreover, the 49% of S&P 500 firms with EPS-linked compensation accounted for just 45% of total 2018 buybacks ($362 billion). We also found no relationship between how management teams with compensation incentives tied to total shareholder return (TSR) spent cash relative to those firms with no shareholder return incentive.

David Kostin, Chief US Equity Strategist

Email: david.kostin@ Tel: 212-902-6781

Goldman Sachs and Co. LLC

Cole Hunter, US Equity Strategist

Email: cole.p.hunter@ Tel: 212-357-9860

Goldman Sachs and Co. LLC

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

4

Top of Mind

Issue 77

EMl yth busting buybacks

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E

Grow th investment has increased sharply in recent years Real S&P 500 growth investment, 2018 $ bn*

700

2018A:

600

$549 bn (+17%)

500

400

300

200

100

0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

*Growth investment is R&D + capex - depreciation; deflated using CPI inflation. Source: Compustat, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Buybacks picked up after tax reform in 2017... S&P 500 share repurchases, $bn

1000 900 800 700 600

2019E: $940 bn (+16%)

2018A: $811 bn (+50%)

500

400

300

200

100

0

Source: Compustat, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Corporate cash payouts are similar to historical averages S&P 500 cash return payout ratios, % of net income

200

180

160

140

120

Dividends + net buybacks

100

80

88%

60

40 20

Avg total cash return payout ratio: 73%

34% Dividends

0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Source: Robert Shiller, Compustat, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

R&D/capex are close to their highest levels ever as a % of sales S&P 500 investment, % of sales

14%

12%

10% 8% 6%

Avg: 8%

R&D

4% Capex

2%

0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Source: Compustat, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

2020

...but so too has the pace of grow th investment S&P 500 capex/depreciation ratio

1.8

1.7

Investing

more for

1.6

growth

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

Maintenance

December 2017

0.9 1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Source: Compustat, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

2020

EPS-linked compensation doesn't appear to drive buybacks 2018 spending among S&P 500 firms with/without EPS-linked compensation packages, $ bn, % of cash spending (below)

EPS-linked compensation

Incentive comp. # of % of

metrics

firms firms

EPS-linked

247 49 %

2018 aggregate spending ($bn) Invest Return to Return to investors for growth investors Buybacks Dividends

$663

$635

$362

$274

Not linked to EPS 253 51

801

648

449

199

All S&P 500

500 100 % $1,464 $1,284

$811

$473

Incentive comp. # of % of

metrics

firms firms

EPS-linked

247 49 %

% of total cash spending Invest Return to Return to investors for growth investors Buybacks Dividends

51 %

49 %

28 %

21 %

Not linked to EPS 253 51

55

45

31

14

All S&P 500

500 100 % 53 %

47 %

30 %

17 %

Source: Compustat, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

5

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